One of the biggest keys to having success when playing in the NFL is the ability to make in-season adjustments; to tweak, alter, and optimize your process so you can build on positive momentum.
There's no reason why that can't apply to betting on the NFL as well... so I'm going to try something a little different with my NFL picks this week, as instead of just releasing plays on Friday and Saturday, I'm going to attempt to give out bets on Week 10 odds as soon as the lines are released.
Ideally, we can get the best of the NFL odds, which means more winners, which means I can opt for the Wagyu steak (instead of the meatloaf) the next time I'm out for dinner.
So read on as I try to find real-time picks — and also note players I've got my eye on — with my favorite NFL player props for Week 10's Sunday slate.
Latest NFL prop picks
Noah Brown Over 40.5 receiving yards (-125 at PointsBet)
Alexander Mattison Over 13.5 rush attempts (-118 at Caesars)
Kyler Murray Over 25.5 rush yards (-125 at PointsBet)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Week 10
Noah's ark
Earlier in the week, I had my eyes on betting Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud for his completions line, considering the Texans simply cannot run the ball and the passing game is the only attack they have.
However, as the week unfolded, we learned that top WR Nico Collins wouldn't play. Then on the other side, Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins is also out, while star Ja'Marr Chase is questionable (and will be limited at best) with a back injury — all giving me reason to pause on the likelihood of a shootout-type game and questioning Stroud's ceiling Sunday.
Houston still can't run the ball though, so I'm targeting Noah Brown's odds, as the Texans receiver should receive a bump in opportunity — both in terms of playing time and opposition — and has a modest receiving yards total.
He went off for 153 yards last week, hauling in all six of his targets and playing almost two-thirds of the offensive snaps for the second straight week. That comes on the heels of a 57-yard effort in Week 7 and while he spends almost 60% of his snaps in the slot, Brown should see more action on the perimeter in two-receiver sets in Collins' absence.
Brown also will benefit from Cincinnati's defense scheme: They play man-to-man coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the league and Brown has the second-highest target rate on the team (behind the injured Collins) at 25% against man coverage. He will also benefit from avoiding the Bengals' top cover corner, Chidobe Awuzie, who will likely spend most of his time matching up against Tank Dell.
Once Collins was ruled out, Brown's receiving yards prop was posted at 41.5 yards (compared to around 55.5 for Dell), and has quickly moved up to 43.5...however, PointsBet is still offering this at just 40.5 yards, giving a slight edge now for a prop that seems like it will continue to move.
Industry projections put Brown in the 48-yard range, giving a little bit of wiggle room against this specific number. I'd also keep an eye out for Brown's yet-to-be-posted receptions prop (especially if it's 2.5 and not heavily juiced), but I'm quite content to go with the No. 2 WR on the most pass-happy offense to crack the 40-yard mark on Sunday.
Prop: Noah Brown Over 40.5 receiving yards (-125 at PointsBet) — would play to 49.5.
Pick made on November 11 at 10:24 a.m. ET
It sounds awful, but it works
Taking the Over on Alexander Mattison odds is an exercise in mascochism, as Mattison averages just 3.6 yards per carry on the season, has the third-worst rushing yards over expected (-73, per NFL Next Gen Stats), and is 76th among all backs in average yards after contact.
But... with Cam Akers gone for the season due to injury, Mattison again has a stranglehold on the Minnesota Vikings' backfield carries, so I'm looking at the Over on his rushing attempts line of 13.5 against the New Orleans Saints.
This is not going to be pretty and this is not going to be fun; but with Josh Dobbs at QB, safety blanket TE T.J. Hockenson banged up, and no Justin Jefferson still, putting the ball primarily in Dobbs' hands against a defense that is seventh in passing yards allowed and eighth in opponent dropback EPA is not a recipe for success.
The Vikings defense has been better as of late, so I'd expect the plan here for Minny is to play defense and run a risk-averse offense where the primary goal is avoiding turnovers... and that means the ho-hum handoffs to Mattison.
The Saints run D is also solid, so I'm not enthusiastic about his rushing yards total of 45.5 (a number he's gone Under in seven of nine games), but again: HC Kevin O'Connell can't afford to abandon the ground game and I don't see Ty Chandler eating into too many of the carries — if the Vikes felt he was good enough to split time, they wouldn't have added Akers earlier in the year.
But they did add Akers. And now he's gone. And where does that bring us? Back to Mattison.
He's run the ball 16+ times in three of his last four games with Akers (and five of his last seven overall), which includes 32 carries the last two weeks with a 2.34 average per rush, so they stick with him even when he struggles.
Industry consensus projections put him around 15 carries, and some books have already moved to 14.5, so I'm jumping on the 13.5 at a reasonable -118 while I can... and also pouring a real stiff drink.
Prop: Alexander Mattison Over 13.5 rush attempts (-118 at Caesars)
Pick made on November 10 at 3:58 p.m. ET
Answering the call of duty
Kyler Murray odds are a thing we can bet on again, as he is back under center for the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday after recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 14 last season.
There's an entire multiverse of possibilities for how his return plays out — with no Loki to suss out the one true outcome — because a fair bit has changed since Murray played an NFL game.
A new head coach (with a new offensive scheme). Limited practice time with an offense that has just Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore as the only familiar skill players. Add in that Murray hasn't seen game action in about a year, there should be some timing issues in the passing attack.
Plus, the Cards' offensive line lost its two best linemen last week and was already one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league. Don't be shocked to see Murray rely on the one familiar constant for him... his legs.
Yes, yes, I know: He's coming back from a major knee injury, which puts his ability — and willingness — to run into question, but he won't be wearing a knee brace and he doesn't sound like he's altering his play style:
“I understand the thought process, but every time I touch the field I’m trying to do my thing.”
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) November 9, 2023
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray says he understands tempering expectations but that’s not how he operates. #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/qDICf9v8nd
Plus: We're looking at a rushing total of just 25.5 yards against the Atlanta Falcons, who allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game to QBs and just allowed a newly acquired Josh Dobbs (who didn't even know the Vikings playbook) to run for 66 yards in Week 9.
Speaking of Dobbs, he can help gauge some rushing expectations: He was Arizona's QB for the first half of the season, rushing for roughly 41+ yards in six of his last seven outings. Murray also averaged 54 yards on the ground over his final six games in 2022 before getting hurt and is at 55 ypg for his career.
Industry consensus projections settle around 30.5 for this Sunday — and I believe that's conservative based on his injury. He says he's going to "do his thing" — and I believe him. His longest rush Over 12.5 yards is also in play, for those on the "quality vs. quantity" side with one of two successful scrambles, but I think he does enough to top one a relatively low rushing total.
Prop: Kyler Murray Over 25.5 rush yards (-125 at PointsBet) — would play to 34.5.
Pick made on November 10 at 11:55 a.m. ET
Steel resolve
If you've been betting the Over on Diontae Johnson odds since his return from injury three weeks ago... you have been a happy camper: He's topped his receptions and receiving yards total in all three games — and I like him to cash in again this week against the Green Bay Packers.
Johnson quickly re-established himself as the WR1 for the Pittsburgh Steelers, posting more receptions (20) and targets (29) than the rest of the team's receivers combined (13 and 26, respectively). He's posted totals of 79, 85, and 90 over this span, and faces a receiving yards total of 60.5 — the same as his closing number last week — against a mediocre Packers secondary.
Green Bay could likely again be without star CB Jaire Alexander due to a shoulder injury; he's missed three games already this season, with five opposing WR topping 63 yards in those games.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Packers also play zone defense at the seventh-highest rate in the league (almost 81% of the time), where Johnson has again been the clear No. 1 read, catching 71% of his team-leading 17 targets against zone schemes since his return, with 125 total yards.
His reception line of 5.5 is also in play, but Johnson has been racking up the yards and target share — and I love him to keep it rolling against a zone-heavy secondary that's expected to be without its best shutdown corner.
Prop: Diontae Johnson Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365) — would play to 69.5.
Pick made on November 9 at 3:47 p.m. ET
Pollard Greens
The Dallas Cowboys offense has started to show signs of life again, but it's been mostly in the passing game as running back Tony Pollard has not topped 53 rush yards in five straight games.
However, a Week 10 date with the New York Giants could be exactly what's needed to finally see an Over hit again on Tony Pollard's odds for his rushing total — posted at 68.5 right now — because, well, it seems like the white flag is out for Big Blue.
The G-Men are coming off a 30-6 thrashing at the hands of the Raiders, giving up 125 rushing yards to Las Vegas (a.k.a. the worst running attack in football that had only generated 85+ rushing yards one other time), have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (127.1) on the season — and surrender 153.4 ypg on the road.
Pollard's slump is concerning, but he's also faced the Nos. 1, 5, 6, and 11 defenses in terms of rush yards per game during that span, a far cry from the Giants.
New York also will be starting Tommy DeVito for the second straight week, meaning the offense will be doing diddly squat against the Dallas defense, so there will be plenty of ball control time for Big D — and possessions to hand the ball to Pollard.
The only concern here is that everybody could be benched by the third quarter, considering this is a 16.5-point spread right now, but Pollard did manage 70 yards in a little more than 3+ quarters of Dallas' 40-0 Week 1 win at New York.
Industry consensus projections sit around 76.7 yards for Pollard, with some models ranging as high as 83.5 in what is a get-right game for the RB. If he can't hit 70+ rush yards on Sunday... he may never do so again.
Prop: Tony Pollard Over 68.5 rush yards (-115 at DraftKings) — would play to 74.5.
Pick made on November 9 at 1:18 p.m. ET
Too Hop' to trot
Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has gotten a shot of energy from the presence of rookie quarterback Will Levis, and this week I'm expecting the WR/QB duo to stay hot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
However, with his receiving yards opening at 62.5 — his highest number of the season — the DeAndre Hopkins odds I'm targeting this Sunday is his longest reception to be Over 22.5 yards.
I mean, you did see Houston rookie C.J. Stroud shred the Bucs for 470 yards last week... right? That included eight completions of 21+ yards, and the Bucs are 26th in defensive dropback EPA, 31st in passing yards against per game, and starting CB Jamel Dean is also unlikely to play.
Combined with Levis' propensity to go downfield — he leads all QBs with 19 deep pass (20+ yards downfield) attempts and is second with seven deep completions in the two weeks since he's taken over under center — with Hopkins, unsurprisingly, the main target, sitting second among WR in deep targets over that span and fourth in deep targets overall for the season.
"Nuk" has caught at least one pass of 20+ yards in each of his last six games, with seven receptions of 25+ in that span. I don't dislike his receiving yards total, but again it's been inflated compared to his previous lines, whereas his longest reception has stayed consistent and is slightly lower than many of the other top deep threats in the league this week — which I think is where we can capitalize.
Prop: DeAndre Hopkins longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-109 at BetMGM)
Pick made on November 9 at 7:41 a.m. ET
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NFL player props to target
Noah Brown (Receiving yards/receptions): See above, but note that Nico Collins is not expected to play. If he's indeed out, Tank Dell likely sees a ton of Cincy star CB Chidobe Awuzie.
Tyler Boyd (Receiving yards): Tee Higgins was just ruled out for Sunday, and Ja'Marr Chase is questionable with a back injury. Joe Burrow is back to being the Burrow we know, and somebody has to catch passes this weekend...
NFL Week 10 prop betting card
- DeAndre Hopkins longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-109)
- Tony Pollard Over 68.5 rush yards (-115)
- Diontae Johnson Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Kyler Murray Over 25.5 rush yards (-125)
- Alexander Mattison Over 13.5 rush attempts (-118)
- Noah Brown Over 40.5 receiving yards (-125)
Last week: 4-2
Season to date: 24-23, -2.21 units
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