Bengals vs Titans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: The King No More

The Tennessee Titans are coming off their worst offensive performance since the move from Houston and sit as NFL odds 2-point home dogs this Sunday vs. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals who avoided an 0-3 start last week with a win over the Rams. 

With poor quarterback play, an aging running back losing snaps, a constantly banged-up No.1 receiver, and an O-line that is giving up a ton of sacks, is fading the Titans’ offense again this week the profitable route for Sunday?

I break down the Week 4 NFL odds and give you my best NFL free picks for Bengals vs. Titans on Sunday, October 1. 

Bengals vs Titans odds

Bengals vs Titans predictions

The Tennessee Titans offense managed a whopping 94 yards of offense last week vs. the Browns who also sacked Ryan Tannehill five times. The Titans signal-caller has been awful through three games sitting dead last in QB success rate and in the bottom six in completion percentage and passer rating. He’s been hit a ton (13 sacks) and leads an uninspiring offense that will struggle to score 21 points Sunday.

Derrick Henry is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and has been outsnapped by his backup in two of the three games. We could be seeing the decline of one of the best power runners in football. 

On the pass-catching side, DeAndre Hopkins seems to have an injury designation heading into every weekend. He has a 56% catch rate and the guys getting more snaps than him (Treylon Burks and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) have just 182 yards combined over 23 targets through three games. 

This is an offense that ranks 30th in success rate, moves the ball at a snail's pace (30th in neutral context pace of play), can’t move the sticks (30th in third-down conversion%), and can’t protect its quarterback — 21 points is a lot for this unit.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense also looked to be back in form and Big Lou’s ways last week vs. the Rams where they got to Matthew Stafford six times. The Bengals had struggled to get pressure early in the season but after last week and a date with the Titans this week who could be without their first-round tackle again, it could be another game with teammates picking Tannehill up off the turf.

With a slow and inefficient offense, a porous O-line, a likely neutral game script, and a lack of big-play weapons, I’m high on this Tennessee team total Under this week. The Bengals haven’t been a juggernaut on defense to begin the year, but if this team has to lean on that defense with Joe Burrow not at 100 percent, I have a lot of faith in one of the best DCs in football to win Sunday’s matchup vs. a bad offense.

My best bet: Titans team total Under 20.5 (-121 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bengals vs Titans same-game parlay

Titans TT total Under 20.5

Derrick Henry Under 66.5 rushing yards

Joe Mixon Under 53.5 rushing yards

+475 at bet365

The Tennessee offense is not one to bet on right now and with Derrick Henry being outsnapped in two of the team's three games, bettors could be seeing the end of the King. Henry is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and faced a defense that allowed just 38 rushing yards to opposing running backs last week. 

Joe Mixon also has a tough matchup vs. the Titans' run defense that was No.1 a year ago and is holding runners to 52 rushing yards a game this season. Mixon hasn't topped 65 rushing yards in a game this year while Henry is coming off an 11-carry game for 20 rushing yards. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bengals were 1.5-point favorites on the look-ahead and reopened at -2.5. Joe Burrow continues to deal with that calf injury but he didn’t have any setbacks in Week 3’s win over the Rams and will likely have to play with the pain for the entirety of the season. He wasn’t great on Monday and has a short week, but things are looking better in Cincy and the Bengals can move to 2-2 if the defense takes advantage of a great matchup in Week 4.

The Titans’ offense is one of the weakest in football. Without a spry Derrick Henry to lean on, this offense has no identity. Tannehill has been one of the worst passers through three weeks facing Cleveland, New Orleans, and the Chargers. He is getting sacked constantly which is up from last year’s 2.75 sacks per game where a lot of that has to do with more long passing situations thanks to a poor run game. 

Tannehill is completing a decent 62.5% of his third- and fourth-down passes but still ranks 27th in success rate and converts third downs at a 27% clip good for 30th in the league. This is not an offense built to play behind the sticks and with all the sacks being given up, it’s nearly impossible for this offense to be efficient.

I certainly lean on the Bengals at -2 and up to -2.5. Burrow is learning to deal with the calf injury more and more every week and got Ja’Marr Chase heavily involved last week. That could help vs. a Titans secondary that could be without starting corner Sean Murphy-Bunting.

The total has already taken some Under money as this was as high as 44 on the look-ahead and bet down to as low as 41. Neither offense projects to move up and down the field and the pace of play from Tennessee certainly favors the Under. However, a three-point drop from the look-ahead is significant and likely something I’m off as the value ship has left the docks.

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