As the 49ers and Rams kick off their season under the lights, the projection models have crunched the numbers on tonight's biggest stars.
From Matthew Stafford’s passing output to high-volume workloads for Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy, here are the top 49ers vs. Rams computer picks & NFL picks for Thursday Night Football on Sept. 10.
49ers vs Rams computer picks for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 49ers |
 Rams |
|---|---|
| McCaffrey anytime TD 57% |
Stafford o249.5 passing yards 57% |
| Evans o49.5 receiving yards 51% |
Williams o49.5 rushing yards 46% |
| Purdy o238.5 passing yards 45% |
Nacua o89.5 receiving yards 52% |
49ers computer picks
Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown (57%)
Projection: 0.88 touchdown
Christian McCaffrey’s underlying metrics are elite. He ranked in the 100th percentile among running backs last season in both air yards (21.0 per game) and Weighted Opportunity Rating (41.1 WOPR).
While most backs average negative air yards due to behind-the-line targets, CMC’s ability to generate true downfield air yards—combined with his league-leading high-value touch volume—puts him in a tier of his own.
🏈 Bet mccaffrey anytime touchdown now
Mike Evans Over 49.5 receiving yards (51%)
Projection: 55.20 receiving yards
Mike Evans remains a dominant downfield threat.
Projections slate him for 7.5 targets in this matchup — ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers — building on a massive campaign where his 106.0 air yards per game placed him in the elite 97th percentile.
🔥 Bet evans receiving yards now
Brock Purdy Over 238.5 passing yards (45%)
Projection: 249.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy remains one of the league’s most efficient signal-callers.
He ranked in the 94th percentile last season with an elite 70.1% Adjusted Completion Rate, while his 8.04 adjusted yards per target (84th percentile) proved he is among the NFL's premier per-play passers.
Rams computer picks
Matthew Stafford Over 249.5 passing yards (57%)
Projection: 266.71 passing yards
The advanced metrics confirm Matthew Stafford is still operating as a top-flight passer.
Last season, Stafford landed in the 95th percentile with 242.0 adjusted passing yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile in adjusted yards per target (8.11).
His ability to drive the ball downfield efficiently makes the Los Angeles Rams' passing game a constant threat.
🏈 Bet stafford passing yards now
Kyren Williams Over 49.5 rushing yards (46%)
Projection: 58.55 rushing yards
Kyren Williams remains a high-volume cornerstone for the Rams.
After commanding 60.5% of team carries (91st percentile) and averaging 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (97th percentile) last season, projections slate him for 13.1 carries in this matchup — ranking in the 83rd percentile among NFL running backs.
🔥 Bet Williams rushing yards now
Puka Nacua Over 89.5 receiving yards (52%)
Projection: 89.74 receiving yards
Puka Nacua enters tonight as a focal point of Los Angeles' passing attack.
After commanding a 30.4% target rate (97th percentile) and 92.0 air yards per game (91st percentile) last season, projections slate him for a heavy 10.1 targets in this matchup—ranking in the top 3% among all NFL receivers.
🔥 Bet Nacua receiving yards now
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