49ers vs Raiders Week 17 Picks and Predictions: San Francisco's Defense Poses a Nightmare

With Derek Carr now on the bench, Jarrett Stidham has been handed the keys for Las Vegas. Find out why the quarterback should struggle mightily against San Francisco in our 49ers vs. Raiders betting picks.

Jan 1, 2023 • 08:20 ET • 4 min read
Jarrett Stidham Las Vegas Raiders NFL
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The San Francisco 49ers come to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders in what should be a one-sided contest. The 49ers are big favorites and should be able to come to Allegiant Stadium and push around the Raiders. 

Derek Carr has been benched, and Las Vegas is officially eliminated from playoff contention. Suffice it to say, there might not be a lot of motivation from the Raiders on Sunday.  

Can the 49ers win their ninth-straight game, or will the Raiders find a way to pull off the upset? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Raiders on January 1.

49ers vs Raiders best odds

49ers vs Raiders picks and predictions

When the Las Vegas Raiders stunned their fans and some of their players by benching Derek Carr, it showed they had truly given up on the season. 

Imagine you are a Raider, and you just watched management sit the No. 1 quarterback. How motivated are you going to be to play hard on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers, knowing your season is over? 

To go even further, how much confidence can you have in Jarrett Stidham? The backup has a passer rating of just 52.8 through 11 career appearances. 

Bettors certainly don’t have any faith in Stidham. On Friday, BetMGM reported that 84% of the tickets and 86% of the money was on San Francisco.

The most intriguing prop bet is how many touchdowns Stidham will throw on Sunday. DraftKings has the total at 0.5, with the Over juiced to -220 and the Under listed at +190.

The 49ers are first in overall defense, allowing 290.3 yards a game. They are 16th in passing yards allowed, with an average of 215.3. 

Do the Raiders have any answer for defensive end Nick Bosa? He leads the NFL in sacks with 17.5 and is five away from the single-season sack record. Bosa is also second in tackles for a loss with 18. 

Even with Derek Carr, the team was 14th in passing yards, averaging 225.9 a game. That number is not likely to be met on Sunday. The Raiders' last game was a 13-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carr had just one lone TD pass to Hunter Renfrow

It’s true the Raiders have more offensive weapons, with Darren Waller back and Davante Adams having a stellar season. The question is can Stidham get the ball to them so they can score? I think the answer is no. 

My best bet: Jarrett Stidham Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+190)

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49ers vs Raiders spread analysis

I don’t care if this is a rivalry game, nor does it really matter that the Raiders have been in seven one-score contests this season. This one is going to be a rout and will prove that the line of 9.5 points wasn’t over-inflated. 

The 49ers are on an eight-game winning streak. During this run, they have defeated teams far superior to the Raiders, such as Tampa Bay and Miami. Of those eight wins, six of them have been by double digits. San Francisco is also an impressive 7-1 against the spread during the streak.

49ers QB Brock Purdy wasn’t expected to lead the 49ers successfully, but he has done just that. Since starting four games ago, Purdy has completed 69.4% of his passes, adding six touchdowns and an interception. 

The lone turnover came last week against Washington, who has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Conversely, Las Vegas is one of the worst teams defending the pass. The Raiders rank 27th, allowing an average of 244.3 a game. 

Expect the 49ers to jump on the Raiders early and hound Stidham on defense. This should be another double-digit victory for San Francisco. 

49ers vs Raiders Over/Under analysis

The total for the game opened at 44.5, but by midweek, the sharps had hammered it down to 42.5. 

The Raiders are going to have trouble passing the ball with Stidham under center. That might mean head coach Josh McDaniels heavily utilizes All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,539 yards. The only problem is Jacobs has been slowed down by teams with good run defenses. Last week, he gained just 44 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are sixth in run defense. Three weeks ago against the Rams — who are fifth in run defense — Jacobs averaged only 3.7 yards a carry.

Guess who is No. 1 in run defense? Yep, the 49ers.

If McDaniels tries to press Jacobs into service to open up the passing game, it might backfire on him. Either way, I don’t see Las Vegas scoring a lot of points. They should definitely be below their season average of 23.2, especially since San Francisco is first in points allowed with an average of 15.3. 

I think San Francisco will get their share of points, but Las Vegas will struggle to score. Take the Under on this one. 

49ers vs Raiders betting trend to know

San Francisco is 6-0 in its last six games against the spread. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Raiders.

49ers vs Raiders game info

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Sunday, January 1, 2023
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Raiders +6, 43.5 O/U

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