The 2025 NFL regular season is right around the corner, and there's a consensus duo atop the NFL MVP odds lists: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson.
Allen and Jackson have both hoisted the MVP hardware before, and each put up sterling statistical performances last year.
Here’s my look at the NFL MVP odds along with my two favorite NFL picks in this market, including a sneaky long shot possibility in Justin Herbert.
| Player |  |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +550 |
| Joe Burrow | +600 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +650 |
| Jayden Daniels | +850 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1800 |
| Justin Herbert | +1800 |
| Jordan Love | +2200 |
| CJ Stroud | +2500 |
| Baker Mayfield | +2500 |
Odds as of 8-13.
Pick: Lamar Jackson (+550 at BetMGM)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson finished second in the NFL MVP voting in 2024 despite leading the league in passer rating (119.6), QBR (77.3), yards per attempt (8.8), and deep-ball efficiency.
The consolation prize for Jackson’s historic season was being named First-Team All-Pro ahead of Buffalo Bills quarterback and NFL MVP Josh Allen.
Jackson threw 41 touchdowns passes and just four interceptions, averaged 6.6 yards per rushing attempt, and was second in adjusted EPA/play (0.310). Behind his elite play, the Ravens finished with one of the league’s best records in the NFL, too.
Baltimore heads into the season with the lowest Super Bowl odds at bet365 (+600), and Jackson has all his key weapons back, including Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews. If the dual-threat QB stays healthy and turns in a statistical season similar to last year, Jackson will take a serious run at winning his third NFL MVP award.
Long Shot: Justin Herbert (+2200 at Caesars)
The Los Angeles Chargers are as short as +300 to win the AFC West, and if they do, quarterback Justin Herbert would be stealing headlines and have a legitimate MVP case.
Herbert posted one of his most efficient seasons in 2024, throwing just three interceptions on 504 attempts — the second-lowest INT rate (0.6%) in NFL history for a 500-attempt passer. He also ranked fifth in on-target rate (77.0%), but an NFL-low 6.6% drop rate and inconsistent receiver play dragged down his completion percentage and overall production.
Still, Herbert’s success airing it out was on full display. He placed the league in deep-ball touchdowns, completed 40.3% of his throws 20+ yards downfield (eighth), and posted a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio on those passes — second only to Jackson. With a 7.7 YPA and solid underlying metrics, Herbert's 2024 tape and underlying numbers were better than his surface statistics.
A second season with head coach Jim Harbaugh and a revamped backfield with veteran Najee Harris and athletic rookie Omarion Hampton means Herbert won’t need to carry the load alone. But if the Chargers and his receivers step up, he has the arm talent and narrative to join the NFL MVP conversation quickly.
It’s also worth highlighting there’s a notable edge placing the futures bet through Caesars. Herbert is trading at just +1800 to win MVP at multiple sportsbooks, so there’s a healthy positive expected value of 22% attached to the +2200 Caesars price.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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