The West Virginia Mountaineers will visit the Texas Longhorns on Saturday in a battle of teams still looking for their first Big 12 wins of the season.
The Mountaineers and Longhorns are both 2-2 on the year but expect to play themselves into bowl game contention. That makes Saturday’s game critical for both schools, as the competition won’t get any easier down the stretch in the conference.
We’ll break down the key matchups in our college football picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Texas on Saturday, October 1.
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West Virginia vs Texas best odds
West Virginia vs Texas picks and predictions
When Texas dropped a 20-19 heartbreaker to the Alabama Crimson Tide back on September 10, hopes were high that the Longhorns could still make a run and be a playoff contender. Unfortunately, those dreams were dashed on Saturday when the Texas Tech Red Raiders beat Texas 37-34 in overtime.
While the Longhorns must be disappointed with their 2-2 record, there’s still plenty to like about this team. Texas has played one of the toughest schedules in the country so far and has still managed to put up some strong numbers on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns are holding opponents to just 21.8 points per game while putting up 410 yards and 36.5 points of offense themselves.
West Virginia has bounced back from an 0-2 start with wins over the Towson Tigers and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Neither of those wins was particularly impressive, but the Mountaineers have at least steadied the ship as they head into the bulk of their Big 12 schedule.
West Virginia has been particularly effective on the ground. True freshman C.J. Donaldson has emerged as a running back, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and scoring six touchdowns on the ground despite coming to college as a tight end.
However, the Mountaineers have yet to face a defense that mirrors the quality they’ll see from the Longhorns on Saturday. Pro Football Focus grades Texas as the ninth-best run defense in the country and No. 14 overall. While the raw numbers may not bear that out (the Longhorns have given up an unremarkable 380 yards of offense per game), it’s worth remembering that Texas has already played Alabama and held the Crimson Tide to 20 points and 161 yards on the ground.
Texas hasn’t put up quite as explosive numbers as West Virginia on offense this year, though again, they’ve played significantly tougher competition. Despite that, the Longhorns have still managed to score 36.5 points per game. Meanwhile, while the Mountaineers have held their opponents to an average of 303 yards of offense, they are giving up 27.5 points per game, good for only 86th in the nation.
Concerningly, the West Virginia defense has looked weak against its two strongest opponents, allowing 38 points to the Pittsburgh Panthers and 55 to the Kansas Jayhawks (including 42 in regulation). Texas should be able to continue scoring points against a defense that has yet to stop competent opposition.
The Longhorns are a 9.5-point favorite in this game, but that number looks small when you consider what these teams have done against very different competition this year. Texas has already shown it can play with the best teams in the country at home, and the Mountaineers are far from that level.
I’m laying the points and expecting the Longhorns to win big on Saturday.
My best bet: Texas -9 (-109 at BetRivers)
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West Virginia vs Texas spread analysis
Texas opened as a 10-point favorite for Saturday’s game, and that number has come down to 9.5 at most books. In some places, you can even find the Longhorns giving just nine points, though I’m happy to take them at any number of 10 or less.
Both teams are 3-1 against the spread this year, with Texas dropping its first game against the spread last week to Texas Tech. The Mountaineers scored a big ATS win last week by beating Virginia Tech 33-10 as a 2.5-point favorite.
It’s still unclear at this time who Texas will start at quarterback on Saturday. While redshirt freshman Quinn Ewers came into the season with the job, he sprained the clavicle in his non-throwing shoulder in the first quarter of the game against Alabama. Junior Hudson Card has started ever since, but Ewers appears to be making progress in practice.
Ewers is averaging 10 yards per attempt this season compared to just 7.8 for Card. Then again, most of Ewers’ production came against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks, so you might take those numbers with a grain of salt. I assumed Card will play in this analysis, but if Ewers is healthy on Saturday, you can consider that a very slight bonus for the Longhorns.
On the other side of the ball, Texas will focus on shutting down Donaldson, who looks like one of the most surprising running backs to emerge in college football this year. The Longhorns should at least be able to slow him down thanks to a strong defensive line anchored by sophomore Byron Murphy II, a run stop specialist who now ranks as the No. 20 interior defender in the country according to Pro Football Focus.
West Virginia vs Texas Over/Under analysis
The total in this game has jumped up two points to 63.5 after opening at 61.5 over the weekend. Both teams have already proven they can score, so the real question is whether these defenses are up to the task on Saturday.
The Mountaineers have cosmetically improved their defensive numbers over the past two weeks by holding Towson and Virginia Tech to a total of just 17 points. However, that comes after giving up 80 regulation points to Pittsburgh and Kansas in their first two games.
Has the West Virginia defense improved, or will it revert to the form it showed against better competition? In reality, it’s a bit of both. West Virginia has exceeded expectations in its last two games, and its run defense held up extremely well against the Hokies, allowing just 35 yards on the ground.
They won’t do that against Texas running back Bijan Robinson, who has already run for 414 yards and seven touchdowns this season, but the Mountaineers now look like a team that can at least put up a fight on defense.
Meanwhile, the Texas defense looks like the real deal, giving up just 21.8 points per game and holding Alabama to 20 earlier in September. With both teams likely to try and establish a running game and each defense playing reasonably well, I’m backing the Under here.
West Virginia vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Texas.
West Virginia vs Texas game info
| Location: | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, October 1, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fox Sports 1 |
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