West Virginia vs TCU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mountaineers Offense a No-Go With Nicco

The status of West Virginia QB Garrett Greene is in doubt, and that spells trouble for the Mountaineers in this road spot vs. TCU. But the Horned Frogs could also struggle to move the chains, as our college football betting picks explain.

Last Updated: Sep 29, 2023 8:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Nicco Marchiol West Virginia Mountaineers NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Big 12 rivals in West Virginia and TCU meet on Saturday night in what should be a thrilling battle between the tremendous Mountaineers' defense and the high-flying Horned Frogs offense. 

West Virginia QB Garrett Greene is a game-time decision for the Mountaineers, who are underdogs in the college football odds, and they’ll have a battle on their hands as TCU has won 10 consecutive regular season conference matchups. 

Please join us as we share our best free college football picks and predictions for West Virginia and TCU on Saturday, September 30. 

West Virginia vs TCU best odds

West Virginia vs TCU picks and predictions

With West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene being a game-time decision, my best bet for this one is Under 52 points (-110) at DraftKings.

Greene was injured during the second series in the Mountaineers victory over Pitt and hasn’t played since. Without Greene, West Virginia has scored just 37 points over their past two games, and they miss his 15.6 yards per completion because, without that, the Mountaineers have difficulty moving and scoring the football.

Freshman QB Nicco Marchiol has taken most of the snaps, but he’s thrown for just 213 yards with a pair of TDs and two picks. Top wideout Hudson Clement has just two receptions with Marchiol under center, and an offense with three wideouts with over 100 receiving yards becomes ineffective without Greene.

Marchiol has better success with his feet, rushing for 78 yards on 29 carries with one rushing TD. Still, without much of a passing offense, the Mountaineers will struggle against an improving TCU defense, and WVU must rely on their defense to stay in the game.

TCU RB Emani Bailey leads the Big 12 in rushing, but he meets a West Virginia defense allowing a 38th-best 109.8 rushing yards per game and 6.8 tackles for a loss. The Mountaineers must slow down Bailey, and they can with their 29th-best first down defense.

Horned Frogs QB Chandler Morris threw for three TDs in last week’s victory over SMU. But Morris has thrown three picks and meets a West Virginia defense with five interceptions on 311 total yards of offense allowed per game.

West Virginia is a tale of two offenses, as it soars with Greene but becomes a time-consuming unit with Marchiol. WVU is averaging 32:45 minutes with the football per game with the latter under center. That should keep the ball out of the hands of Morris and the Horned Frogs, which keeps the Mountaineers' defense fresh.

TCU can score, just not the 38.3 points they’ve averaged thus far. Play the Under.

My best bet: Under 52 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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West Virginia vs TCU same-game parlay

Under 52

West Virginia TT Under 19.5

West Virginia just isn’t the same offense with Marchiol under center, and that's the main reason why I like the Under. 

TCU has allowed two touchdowns over their last two contests, and their defense is likely much better than it appears on paper. They’ve done a good job keeping offenses out of the end zone the last two games, holding Houston QB Donovan Smith to 205 passing yards and a pair of picks without a score, and allowing 416 yards but just two rushing touchdowns to SMU. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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West Virginia vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis

I like the Under in this game because I don’t see West Virginia scoring more than two touchdowns on Saturday in Fort Worth. Here are some additional notes for this Big 12 matchup.

The Mountaineers defense averages 6.8 tackles for loss per game this season. TCU allows a 46th-best 4.6 tackles for loss per contest.

West Virginia averages 189.5 rushing yards per game, but 151 rushing yards over their past two games without Greene under center.

The Mountaineers are No. 2 in the Big 12 and No. 7 nationally in punt return defense, yielding zero yards on five returns with a long return of nine yards.

The TCU offense has a 44% third-down conversion rate, while West Virginia opponents convert 25% of their third-down attempts.

TCU is No. 2 in the Big 12 and tied for 13th nationally in fourth-down defense, holding opponents to a 27.3% conversion rate (3-of-11). West Virginia has converted eight of 15 fourth-down conversion attempts for a 53% success rate.

West Virginia vs TCU betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Mountaineers' last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more college football betting trends for West Virginia vs TCU.

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West Virginia vs TCU game info

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

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