For a long while on Saturday, it looked like the top of the College Football Playoff could be thrown into chaos. Texas A&M getting blown out at home by South Carolina would have had a significant impact.
Instead, the Aggies mounted the biggest comeback in at least 20 years in the SEC.
Alabama losing in the afternoon slate may seem like it could throw the Playoff rankings into chaos, but the Tide remain in an enviable position with little to worry about.
CFB Week 12 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Texas A&M’s close call. If anything, the Aggies should have impressed you with their second-half resolve to score 28 unanswered points after halftime.
Plenty of teams would have folded at halftime, trailing 30-3. Plenty of really good teams would have folded at halftime, knowing their Playoff path was still secure and all their biggest dreams remained intact.
Instead, Texas A&M put South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer firmly onto the hot seat for this offseason, and the Aggies put themselves one rivalry win away from the SEC title game and an assured first-round bye in the Playoff.
Texas A&M remains third on the title odds board at +800, trailing only Ohio State (+185) and Indiana (+500) at FanDuel. If oddsmakers are not overreacting to one bad half, why should anyone else?
Douglas’s advice: Do not buy a Texas A&M future yet. If you are inclined to believe in the Aggies, wait until the Playoff. A three-round moneyline rollover would conservatively pay at least +750 and probably a bit more. Waiting until the bracket provides the opportunity for a moneyline rollover also provides you with the maximum amount of information possible before committing to your title bet.
Also do not overreact to Alabama’s losing to Oklahoma. The Tide played sloppily against arguably the best defensive front in the country. To some extent, that should be expected.
This is not to boast that Alabama outgained Oklahoma 406 yards to 212 yards. That will happen when your turnovers grant the opponent a pair of short fields as well as a defensive touchdown, not to mention the yardage the Tide gained in the final minutes as the Sooners dropped into prevent coverage.
But this is to say, Oklahoma’s defense does this, it is why the Sooners are now likely heading to the Playoff, and this may be the best defensive front in the country. Alabama’s struggles against this defense are not necessarily struggles to expect again.
Furthermore, the Tide remain in excellent position to make the SEC championship game. If they beat Auburn — nothing can ever be assumed in a rivalry game like the Iron Bowl — then Alabama should be in the conference championship game.
How can we be so certain when even the SEC is not outlining tiebreakers yet? In part, because Georgia has already finished conference play at 7-1. That guarantees Alabama cannot end in a two-team tie at 7-1 with Mississippi, the only clear scenario that costs the Tide because the Rebels beat the Sooners.
And in part because Alabama has played a distinctly more difficult schedule than the three other SEC contenders: Texas A&M, Georgia, and Mississippi. When tiebreakers get to winning percentage of conference opponents, the Tide suddenly become grateful for their more difficult schedule.
Of the SEC’s bottom six teams, Texas A&M has played five, Georgia’s and Mississippi’s schedules include four apiece, while Alabama sees only two this regular season.
Douglas’s advice: FanDuel has Alabama as the third team on the SEC odds board, at +270 behind Texas A&M at +130 and Georgia at +240. That makes some sense; the Tide need to beat Auburn to reach the SEC title game. Then again, Georgia needs Auburn to beat Alabama. That +240 is too short; that +270 is too long. There is value to be had on betting Alabama at +270 right now. It is effectively a two-game parlay of beating Auburn and then beating presumably Texas A&M. The Tide would be underdogs in the SEC title game, but nowhere near a +270 moneyline.
CFB Week 12 reactions to make
Do overreact to what Oklahoma showed in that win on the road. The Sooners’ first-round Playoff opponent should worry.
Oklahoma is now priced at -192 to make the Playoff at FanDuel. With Missouri and LSU remaining on the schedule, a loss is certainly possible, but if the Sooners can hold onto a two-loss record, they should be in the Playoff.
For that matter, they should jump Notre Dame in this week’s rankings, lowering the Irish chances of hosting a first-round Playoff game for the second year in a row.
Consider who Oklahoma would likely face in a first-round matchup, probably Mississippi or Oregon. Either the Sooners would get a chance at revenge against the Rebels or a chance to expose the Ducks’ offensive line.
Either hypothetical would be a delight for football fans.
Douglas’s advice: At +3000, some may consider an Oklahoma national championship future. John Mateer at full health raises the Sooners’ ceiling, and that defensive front should keep them in range of every opponent. Instead, bet a unit on Oklahoma to win against Missouri this weekend. If the Sooners win, roll it over against LSU. This possible six-game moneyline rollover will pay far better than +3300, if you are inclined to think Brent Venables might become the fourth active coach with a national championship, a list currently limited to Ryan Day, Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney.
Do overreact to College GameDay reportedly heading to visit James Madison next weekend. And do overreact to South Florida losing to Navy.
The Dukes are in prime position to be the Group of Five representative in the Playoff. It will assuredly be either them or the American champion.
The American has the most convoluted tiebreakers in the country, relying on rankings in some advanced metrics if teams are not ranked by the Playoff selection committee. And logic says none will be ranked in the next two weeks.
Entering the weekend, North Texas and Tulane had healthy leads in the advanced metrics, though Navy’s upset of South Florida could shrink that gap, and the Midshipmen do have the toughest game remaining among the four one-loss American teams, heading to Memphis after Thanksgiving.
But Notre Dame eviscerated Navy a week ago, and while that game did not count in the American conference standings, it did impact the Midshipmen’s advanced considerations, quite probably too drastically for Navy to actually catch Tulane.
At that point, one must wonder who the committee would favor, James Madison or the American champion, be it North Texas or Tulane. Reasonable minds can disagree.
Douglas’s advice: Bet James Madison on alternative spreads this week. The Dukes look to be about two-touchdown home favorites against Washington State. James Madison has more incentive than anyone to run up that score and win by three or four possessions. There will be no brake pedal, no mercy. Only a Playoff argument.
Rapid fire: More Week 13 bets to target
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Baylor has no rush defense. There is no need to elaborate on that reality. Arizona has a Top 25 rush offense, one that has pushed the Wildcats to a terribly underappreciated season. Bet Arizona up to -10, even if this opened closer to -4.
Utah has 180 rushing yards in the first half at Baylor, leading 28-10.
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) November 16, 2025
A Baylor coaching change feels likely at this rate, but the uncertain AD situation with Mack Rhoades' leave of absence makes things a bit fuzzy. -
Notre Dame made Pat Narduzzi eat his words, and now the Irish can trounce Syracuse without much effort. Notre Dame has won its three Senior Days under Marcus Freeman by a combined score of 124-21.
Expect the Irish to continue that against Syracuse. Notre Dame held Pittsburgh to 2-of-13 on late-down situations on Saturday, and now it faces a bottom-25 offense in late-down conversions, per CFB-graphs.com. The Irish should hold the Orange scoreless. That spread may be north of 35, and that may understandably scare you off; bet Syracuse’s Team Total Under at any number instead.Just an FYI, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh play next in 2028, just on the off chance both Marcus Freeman and Pat Narduzzi are still these coaches in three years. https://t.co/BCrXh4MeHN
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 15, 2025 -
North Carolina’s luck has reached comedic levels. The Tar Heels never deserved to beat Wake Forest, but they deserved a win against the spread. In a clear letdown spot for Duke, with its ACC title hopes utterly dashed, grab North Carolina at +7.5. Believe it or not, but Bill Belichick’s team has become undervalued because of these comically bad bounces of the ball.
— highlightcity (@bad_beats__) November 15, 2025
- Speaking of the ACC championship, SMU still has hopes of reaching the title game, while Louisville does not thanks to Friday’s loss to Clemson. Consider this another letdown spot to target. Bet SMU up to -4.
- Do not believe anyone when they tell you Miami can still reach the ACC title game. Well, believe them, but ignore them. The Hurricanes need a four-game sequence of: Louisville beats SMU, Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech, Miami beats Pittsburgh and Duke loses to either North Carolina or Wake Forest. That sequence, plus just winning the ACC championship game itself, should pay far higher than the +800 currently available on the Hurricanes to win the conference.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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