Virginia is having by far its most successful season since hiring Tony Elliott in 2022, but the Cavaliers need to beat arch-rival Virginia Tech in their season finale to become bowl-eligible.
After a pair of three-win seasons in his first two years in charge of Virginia, Elliott has clearly given the Cavs a boost in year three, but a gauntlet in the back half of the season has put bowl game odds eligibility in question.
If Virginia can win the Commonwealth Cup, their bowl projection will send the Cavaliers south.
Virginia Cavaliers season to date
Virginia got off to such a hot start this season, going 4-1 with two conference wins before losing a close one to a tough Louisville squad. Things have been dicey for Elliott’s program in recent weeks, and they’ve gone 1-5 since that loss in mid-October to the Cardinals.
Outside of a blowout loss to North Carolina, the five other teams that beat them were, or are currently, ranked in the Top 25. With a schedule that was tough down the stretch, it’s impressive that Virginia still has a shot at bowl eligibility. But winning the Commonwealth Cup won’t be easy.
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Virginia Cavaliers remaining schedule
vs. Virginia Tech (Sat, Nov. 30): The winner of this matchup reaches bowl eligibility, making it that much sweeter of a rivalry game this year. However, the Cavaliers haven’t won in Blacksburg since 1998 and have only won this series twice since 1999. It’s hard to imagine that fortune changing with Virginia Tech projected to win 32-23.
Virginia Cavaliers bowl game projection
Birmingham Bowl
If Virginia can overcome a struggling Virginia Tech team and win in Blacksburg for the first time in nearly three decades, the Cavaliers will head to a bowl game. It would be their first bowl game since losing the Orange Bowl under Bronco Mendenhall in 2019.
If they can upset the Hokies, who are 7.5-point favorites, Virginia will be in a position to head to the Birmingham Bowl. A win over Tech would likely make them the 12th bowl-eligible ACC team with at least one of Miami and SMU heading to the College Football Playoff.
Projected bowl game opponent: East Carolina
If Virginia is able to defeat Virginia Tech and get bowl-eligible, the Cavaliers will likely see an opponent from the AAC - though this could change depending on how many AAC teams qualify for a bowl. If the AAC does earn a Birmingham Bowl invite, it will likely be East Carolina playing Virginia. The Pirates won four straight under interim coach Blake Harrell to get bowl-eligible, with Harrell being promoted to the full-time gig as a result.
ACC bowl tie-ins and affiliations
- Pop-Tarts Bowl (vs. Big 12)
- TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (vs. SEC)
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
- Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (vs. TBD - formerly Pac-12)
- Pinstripe Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
- Holiday Bowl (vs. TBD - formerly Pac-12)
- Fenway Bowl (vs. AAC)
- Go Bowling Military Bowl (vs. AAC)
- ReliaQuest Bowl (vs. SEC or Big Ten)
- Alternate affiliation: Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl (vs. AAC or SEC)
- Alternate affiliation: Birmingham Bowl (vs. SEC or AAC)
- Alternate affiliation: SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (vs. SEC or AAC)
Birmingham Bowl info
- Date: Friday, December 27, 2024
- Time: Noon or 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
- Network: ESPN
