With all that change happening in Utah, Utes fans and bettors can at least take solace in the fact that at least the team's 2026 win total hasn't changed.
Utah faces similar expectations to a season ago despite having a new head coach following the stunning departure of Kyle Whittingham to Michigan. The on-field product will look vastly different, as well, as the Utes look to build off an impressive 10-win 2025 campaign and a victory in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Here's a look at the recent history of Utah win totals, along with predictions on whether the Utes will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
Utah 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 9.5* | 🟡 |
| John Leone | Daily Utah Chronicle | OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Utah has a new head coach for the first time in 20 years with Kyle Whittingham off to Michigan. The Utes return a combined zero starters on the offensive and defensive lines. Still, my ratings project them to be favored in every game this year, although six are by single digits.
Rob Paul
The shock of Kyle Whittingham taking the Michigan job and bringing several coaches and players with him to Ann Arbor was a tough pill to swallow for Utah.
That said, Morgan Scalley has enough to win 9+ games in his first season with the Utes. Not only does he have dynamic QB Devon Dampier back, but the offense also returns a potential All-Big 12 running back in Wayshawn Parker. It has added two of the top Group of Six transfers in wide receivers Braden Pegan (Utah State) and Kyri Shoels (San Jose State), too.
With Scalley moving from defensive coordinator to head coach, his promotion of linebackers coach Colton Swan should help with continuity. Plus, Utah has a potential star in linebacker Johnathan Hall and should have one of the best secondaries in the conference. And its schedule isn’t too tough, ranked No. 74 in SOS (.523).
Colby Marchio
I expect the Utes to be nearly perfect in 2026, as they have the luxury of avoiding another Big 12 contender with College Football Playoff aspirations in Texas Tech. They still have to get through BYU, but they'll have the advantage of hosting that matchup.
The defense should once again be the star of the show, as it usually is when discussing Utah. I expect this unit to be every bit as good as it was a year ago, only this time with a much more manageable schedule.
The rest of the slate sets up well, and if first year head coach Morgan Scalley can maintain the culture Kyle Whittingham built over the past 21 years, I still think this is a dangerous football team, even under new management.
📰 Utah media win total predictions
John Leone, The Daily Utah Chronicle
Under a new head coach and an offensive line consisting of five new starters, I think Utah bounces back well and keeps the culture and physicality intact.
Utah win totals, odds and results (2010-25)
(Utah historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | +115 | -140 | 10 | Over |
| 2024 | 10 | +135 | -160 | 5 | Under |
| 2023 | 8.5 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Under |
| 2022 | 9 | -135 | +110 | 9 | Push |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -145 | +120 | 9 | Over |
| 2019 | 9 | -150 | +130 | 11 | Over |
| 2018 | 7.5 | +110 | -130 | 9 | Over |
| 2017 | 6.5 | -140 | +120 | 6 | Under |
| 2016 | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 8 | Over |
| 2015 | 7.5 | +110 | -130 | 9 | Over |
| 2010 | 8.5 | -120 | -110 | 10 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- An impressive overall showing: Utah has been a strong Over play despite some recent bumps, having gone 7-3-1 O/U in 11 graded seasons per Sports Odds History. Aside from a massively disappointing 2024 season, Utah has either surpassed, tied, or falling just a half-win shy of its Vegas win total in every season.
- Faith restored?: 2026 marks the first time in a while that Utes Over bettors are getting an inferior payout compared to the Under play. Three straight years of plus-money odds on the win total Over might have seemed like a nice value play, but Utah surpassed its season win threshold just once over that span.
How Utah win totals are priced
Covers experts aren't the only ones optimistic about the Utes' ability to put together a regular season of 9+ wins for the fifth time in eight years.
The O8.5 is heavily juiced, sitting at -150 – the lowest odds for a Utah win total Over since 2019, when the Utes converted the O9 at -150 with an impressive 11-win campaign. The Under 8.5 pays out at +125.
Two other markets to consider: Utah is trading at +164 on the O9.5 if you're feeling frisky, and sits at +110 on Over 6.5 Big 12 victories.
The Utes are just 4-9 SU against ranked opponents since 2023, though their overall average scoring margin in those games is just -4.4.
Utah win total FAQs
Will Utah make the CFP?
The Utes have the 15th-best odds to reach the College Football Playoff, installed at +350.
What is Utah's projected win total?
Utah's projected win threshold for 2026 is 8.5, with the Over at -150 and the Under at +125.
Who is Utah's starting QB?
Devon Dampier returns as the Utes' QB1. He threw for 2,490 yards with 24 TDs and just five interceptions in 2025.
What's the best bet for Utah this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on the Utes' win threshold is the play to make in 2026.
