Tulane vs USC Prediction: Cotton Bowl Odds and Picks

With Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams virtually the last man standing for the Trojans, our Cotton Bowl betting picks expect Tulane to put the finishing touches on an impressive Group of Five season.

Jan 2, 2023 • 10:16 ET • 4 min read

One win away from making the 2022 College Football Playoff, the USC Trojans also fell short in the Pac-12 title game after going 11-2 and have been re-routed to the Cotton Bowl instead.

Rather than facing the Georgias and Michigans of the world, the Trojans will face an upstart Tulane Green Wave team that also finished 11-2. Willie Fritz’s squad enters as the AAC Champion and the sole Group of Five representatives in the New Year's Six.

Will the Green Wave be able to notch one more win in what’s been a terrific turnaround season? Read our college football picks and predictions for Tulane vs. USC below to find out. 

Tulane vs USC best odds

Tulane vs USC picks and predictions

The USC Trojans will be shorthanded in this bowl matchup. Although 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has announced that he will play after injuring his hamstring against Utah in the Pac-12 title game, the roster around him will look different. 

Star wideout Jordan Addison — the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner and Trojans leader in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns — will opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft and heal a nagging ankle injury.

Two starting linemen, center Brett Neilon, and guard Andrew Vorhees will be absent due to injury. Both played significant roles for a surprisingly stout offensive line and will be missed dearly. Injury has also kept star running back Travis Dye sidelined since November.

The Trojans primarily made their hay on the offensive side of the ball, ranking first nationally in EPA per play while averaging 41.1 points per game. The defense, on the other hand, was a sieve — USC ranked 108th in EPA per play and 126th in success rate on that side of the ball while surrendering 415.1 yards per game on a ghastly 6.3 yards per play.

The defense is already bad and will likely continue to be in the bowl, while the offense will take a slight step back being shorthanded for the bowl. Expecting too huge of a dropoff in production for the bowl would be unwise — Caleb Williams is still around, of course.

Tulane has been a much more well-rounded team, ranking 29th in EPA per play offensively and 39th in EPA per playing defensively. Michael Pratt is one of the best quarterbacks at the Group of Five level and should hold his own against a soft defense.

The potential under-the-radar future late-round NFL Draft prospect completed 64.5% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt en route to 25 passing TDs and just five interceptions while adding 395 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Star running back Tyjae Spears dominated this year with 1,618 scrimmage yards and 17 scores and should have a field day against a porous Trojans rush defense that ranks 126th in EPA per rush and 128th in rush success rate. 

The Green Wave are expected to be at full strength with no reported opt-outs or impact transfer portal entrants as of the time of this writing. Willie Fritz is one of my favorite coaches to back against the spread and has already gotten the best of Lincoln Riley at the betting window once, nearly pulling off an outright upset (40-35) as 31.5-point dogs in Norman a year ago.

The Trojans already had their dreams crushed this season, whereas the Green Wave are looking for a statement win to cap what’s been a magical ride this season.

My best bet: Tulane +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best college football bonuses

Looking to bet on some Bowl season action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Tulane to win and Tyjae Spears Over 1.5 rushing touchdowns BOOSTED to +270 at Caesars! Bet Now

B) Get a random profit boost (up to 100%) for any CFB same-game parlay today at DraftKings! Opt-in Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.

Tulane vs USC spread analysis

Let’s recap both teams’ seasons: USC pulled off three straight easy wins before nearly falling Corvallis, winning a 17-14 nail-biter against Oregon State after a game-winning touchdown pass from Williams to Addison with just 1:13 left to play in the fourth quarter.

The Trojans would win six straight before catching their first loss of the season, a 43-42 heartbreaker in Salt Lake City in which Utah scored a touchdown and added a two-point conversion with just 48 seconds left on the clock. USC ended the regular season with statement wins against UCLA and Notre Dame before a 47-24 drubbing at the hands of Utah in the Pac-12 title came ended their CFP hopes.

The Green Wave bottomed out at 2-10 a year ago but have completely flipped the switch in 2022, notching an 11-2 record with an AAC Championship to boot. A 17-10 victory over a quality Kansas State team highlighted a 3-0 start to the season, although a 27-24 loss to Southern Mississippi in the fourth game of the season offered a momentary step back.

Tulane would be heavily favored if those two teams met again, as it won the total yardage battle 451 to 253 yet somehow managed to find a way to lose. The Green Wave would notch six wins over bowl teams (Houston, ECU, Memphis, SMU, Cincinnati, UCF) in an 8-1 finish to the season.

This has been one of the most profitable teams to back in the country this season with a pristine 11-2 ATS mark. The Green Wave are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record and have already proven capable of playing well against elite competition, notching a win over a Kansas State team currently ranked inside the Top 10, earning a spot in the Sugar Bowl with Alabama.

Tulane vs USC Over/Under analysis

College football odds have the total set at 62 in this matchup and I'll be backing the Over. Allow me to explain my reasoning...

Caleb Williams is the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and should find success against a Group of Five defense. While Tulane’s defense is solid, it’s not like the Green Wave are otherworldly on that side of the ball — they’ve simply been serviceable.

A soft defensive front is at the heart of the issue, as the Green Wave rank 96th in line yards, 100th in stuff rate, and 115th in havoc. USC’s offensive line was stellar this season — ranking eighth in line yards — and should still pave the way for an efficient rushing attack. The Trojans check in at third in rushing success rate and Austin Jones and Raleek Brown have proven capable of filling in for Dye in big games. 

On the other side of the ball, Tulane should find plenty of success against a moribund USC defense that grades out poorly across the board. The Trojans are just 123rd in standard down success rate, failing to stop both the rush (128th in rush success rate) and the pass (113th in pass success rate).

Usually, you’d look for the Power Five team to dominate the line of scrimmage defensively against a Group of Five team, especially in an NY6 bowl. I’m not sure that’ll be the case, however, as the Trojans check in at just 113th in line yards and 92nd in stuff rate. I expect both offenses to find success in this matchup and the Over should cash as a result.

In-play microbetting trends for USC vs Tulane

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

USC

Offensive score Yes: 24/34 (70.5%)
Offensive score No: 10/34 (29.4%)

Punts: 8/34 (23.5%)
TDs: 21/34 (61.7%)
FG attempts: 3/34 (8.8%)
TOs: 2/34 (5.8%)

Tulane

Offensive score Yes: 11/25 (44%)
Offensive score No: 14/25 (56%)

Punts:7/25 (28%)
TDs: 8/25 (32%)
FG attempts: 4/25 (16%)
TOs: 6/25 (24%)

Tulane had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Tulane vs USC betting trend to know

The Green Wave are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tulane vs. USC.

Tulane vs USC game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, January 2, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Tulane vs USC latest injuries

Tulane vs USC weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo