The Texas Longhorns make their long-awaited SEC debut in Gainesville against the Florida Gators on Saturday, October 4, and fireworks should follow.
With elite playmakers on both sidelines, my early Texas vs. Florida predictions expect the Gators to cover the spread in a high-scoring affair at The Swamp.
Read on for my free college football picks.
Texas vs Florida predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Texas vs Florida spread pick: Florida +7.5
The Texas Longhorns make their long-awaited SEC debut as a 7.5-point road favorite, but the matchup sets up nicely for the Florida Gators to cover that number in the swamp.
The Longhorns boast one of the nation’s elite third-down defenses, but their own offense and quarterback Arch Manning have struggled in this area, ranking 104th nationally in conversion rate.
Florida, meanwhile, sits inside the Top 50 in third-down defense and should benefit from extra preparation coming off a bye week and a healthier quarterback in DJ Lagway.
Texas is hopeful to have running back Quintrevion Wisner back, but the Longhorns' star will likely be on a snap count, and its backfield might fare well against the Sam Houston’s of the world, but not in The Swamp against these Gators.
The Gators have also faced stronger competition than Texas to this point, and they can cover the +7.5 at home.
Early Texas vs Florida total pick: Over 45.5
Both teams bring plenty of offensive firepower into this SEC showdown, and we’ll target this low total.
Lagway will be eager to bounce back after his disappointing showing against Miami. If he does, the Gators have enough speed and skill position talent to stress a stout Texas defense vertically and horizontally.
Manning faces his second true test against a quality opponent. The Longhorns pivot struggled against Ohio State, but he boasts elite weapons on the perimeter and could benefit from Wisner’s return to the lineup.
Florida’s defense has shown cracks against high-level competition, while Texas has yet to see an offense as capable as what the Gators’ roster promises.
Both quarterbacks are motivated to make statements. Lagway to prove he’s their top guy, Manning to validate his hype.
Let the young fellas cook and play the Over in this one.
Texas vs Florida odds
- Texas vs. Florida spread: Florida +7.5
- Texas vs. Florida moneyline: Texas -295, Florida +235
- Texas vs. Florida Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Texas vs Florida
- Texas vs. Florida matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Gainesville, FL
- Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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