Texas A&M vs Miami Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Aggies Offense the Aggressor vs Miami

It's one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 2 as No. 23 Texas A&M heads to Miami to face the Hurricanes. The odds do little to seperate the two teams, but out college football betting picks give the edge to the team with the more explosive offense.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Sep 9, 2023 • 11:59 ET • 4 min read
Evan Stewart Texas A&M NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

No. 23 Texas A&M and Miami meet in an excellent highlight of the college football weekend in Miami Gardens.

Each team took care of business on its opening weekend to enter this one 1-0. For each team, it was also a routine victory. The Aggies dispatched New Mexico State by a score of 52-10, with well-traveled offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino making his debut. Miami squared off with the other Miami (OH) and crushed the Redhawks 38-3. 

College football odds have the Aggies -3.5 point favorites with the total sitting at 51.

Who will get the win here? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Miami on Saturday, September 9.

Texas A&M vs Miami best odds

Texas A&M vs Miami picks and predictions

There's a fun little narrative about this game. It's composed of two teams that have largely been nothing but hype over the past few seasons. Each typically comes in with high expectations, a Top 25 ranking, and typically underperforms. Nobody knows that better than better than Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher. He's routinely noted falling short of the expectations the past few years and knows that they need to be reached. 

"It's just the way it is, especially when everybody is invested in winning at the highest level," Fisher noted in the offseason to ESPN.

What we're left with in this matchup is hype vs. hype. I'm taking the hype coached by Jimbo Fisher and not Mario Cristobal to at least deliver here. I'm grabbing A&M as my best bet.

Multiple advantages stand out here on paper; one of the first to catch my eye is that A&M has Bobby Petrino running the offense, and the Miami Hurricanes does not. 

As an avid Louisville athletics fan, I'm familiar with Petrino and his coaching stops at the school not once but twice. Whatever your personal feelings are about him, the man can coach offense, and it's an offense I expect to give the Canes fits on Saturday afternoon. Consider this: the New Mexico defense isn't good, but it was important for the Aggies to deliver. It did, and it was explosive, with five passing plays of 20 yards more from starter Conner Weigman. That's massive. Why? Over the past two seasons combined, A&M had 70 passes of 20 yards or more. In one night, Texas A&M had just over 7% of passing plays of 20 yards or more than they've had in the past few seasons. Regardless of the opponent, that shows things are clicking, and it can be put on full display this weekend.

There's not much to take from Miami's defensive performance against Miami (OH) last week. It did what it was supposed to against a non-Power Five team and won easily. However, some of the deeper underlying analytics caught my eye. Even though Miami was beaten comfortably, it could average over 6 yards per play when it dropped back. That was about average relative to the first of the college football world. It's troubling to give up against a QB who had just made one start against a Power Five opponent in his career. It also comes on the heels of the Canes finishing the final three games averaging over 240 yards passing yards allowed, ranking them in the bottom half of the country. Bobby Petrino and company have a point to prove and a matchup they can exploit. 

Its offensive prowess isn't the only reason I like the Aggies to take care of business. On the other side of the ball, I'm not sold on QB Tyler Van Dyke's ability to match A&M's explosiveness. Against the Redhawks last week, it finished with just two passing plays that were defined as explosive. If it gets down, I'm not ready to count on a player to deliver the big-time throws when he's largely underwhelmed in his past performances. Van Dyke came into last season expecting to live up to some preseason draft hype. He failed to do that in a big way, and a 17/22 performance with one touchdown and one interception last week leads me to believe not much has changed. 

This writer thinks A&M gets up early and does enough to stir off a late comeback charge by Miami. Give me the Aggies by 6. 

My best betTexas A&M -3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Texas A&M vs Miami same-game parlay

Texas A&M -3.5

Evan Stewart anytime touchdown

My same-game parlay is relatively safe but has some value, given that I priced it at +175.

Once again, Bobby Petrino is a significant story here, and his mantra of "feed the studs" led me to this plan. Stewart seems primed for a tremendous season. He was targeted through the air more than any Aggie last week (10), and Petrino does as good of a job as anyone in the country getting his playmakers the ball. I'll bank on him leaning on Stewart here and take him to get in for six paired with my best bet. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas A&M vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis

We talked about this one above; Texas A&M is my pick.

I've made a living the last two seasons fading the hype machine that is Aggie football, but now I've become a bit of a believer. It's a weird spot to be in, but I don't believe Tyler Van Dyke, as there has been little to nothing in his career suggesting I should. Miami was just 2-8 ATS last season, making it one of the most profitable fades in college football. One of those losses came against this A&M team in College Station. Given that Miami has spent this week offering BOGO tickets for its next game against Georgia Tech if fans purchased tickets, I wonder if the same atmosphere that Miami had to play on the road will be replicated here.

I don't have much of a side for the full-game total. Instead, I would look at the Miami Team Total Under 23.5 over at a FanDuel. 

The Canes leaned on its rushing attack last week, and I'd look for it to be the same in this one. They'll want to control the gameflow and let the humidity of Florida play a pivotal role in tiring A&M in this spot. The best way to do that is to pound the rock on the ground. Miami was held to 9 points when these teams faced off a season ago. Furthermore, it eclipsed this number against a Power Five opponent just once in its first three games last season. 

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Texas A&M vs Miami betting trend to know

Miami was 2-8 ATS last season. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Miami.

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Texas A&M vs Miami game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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