Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Saban Shows Fisher Who's Boss

After losing to Texas A&M in 2021, Alabama is moving in a much different direction than the Aggies. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are rolling and the Aggies are, um, not. Even if Bryce Young sits, 'Bama should be able to cover this massive spread.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 8, 2022 • 16:54 ET • 4 min read

The war of words between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban meets on the field this weekend, and now it’s put up or shut up time when the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide host the Texas A&M Aggies.

And it won’t just be off-season banter fueling Bama. Revenge will be on the Tide’s mind after the Aggies upset them 41-38 as 18.5-point underdogs at College Station last season. The Tide are also rolling into this matchup with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young listed as day-to-day after suffering an injury last week.

But whoever is under center for Alabama, it’s still a better situation than what A&M has going on as shaky quarterback play has already led to two losses. Can they keep this game close like last season or is there a reckoning coming in Tuscaloosa?

I break it all down and give you my best bet in college football picks and predictions for this SEC showdown between Texas A&M and Alabama.

Texas A&M vs Alabama best odds

Texas A&M vs Alabama picks and predictions

If I was Jimbo Fisher, I might be regretting some of those off-season comments. It’s not like Alabama needed any extra motivation heading into this one after losing last year’s meeting. And even with Bryce Young’s status up in the air, Fisher might be a little uneasy considering the way the Crimson Tide are rolling. 

Alabama is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread, which includes going 3-0 SU/ATS at home. The team ranks fourth in total offense and fifth in total defense. 

Last week’s game at Arkansas was interesting. Bama came out firing, then Young got hurt and the Razorbacks made a push. But then backup QB Jalen Milroe and running back Jahmyr Gibbs took over and ended up with nearly 300 rushing yards between the two of them, leading the Tide to another cover.

With two losses, Texas A&M's season is basically over, at least in terms of what its preseason goals were. While the numbers aren’t great, particularly against the run, the defense is mostly holding up. It’s Jimbo’s offense that’s a mess.

They can’t run. They can’t pass. They turn the ball over. Fisher literally hasn’t had good quarterback play since Jameis Winston was at Florida State. The Aggies rank 104th in total offense and 109th in scoring, putting up just 21.8 points per game.

This line is close if Young doesn’t play. If he does play, it’s too low. Saban isn’t the type of coach to take things personally, is he?

He’s had this game circled since last year’s 41-28 loss. This time it's Tuscaloosa. Saban is not only trying to win the game but to show Jimbo who the king of the SEC is. Don't be surprised if Bama takes some shots late and runs up the score.

My best bet: Alabama -23.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Texas A&M vs Alabama spread analysis

I believe this line is preparing for the chance that Young doesn’t play. But Young is practicing and there are rumors starting to swirl around Tuscaloosa that his shoulder will be good enough to give it a go this week. 

But I think Alabama is going to be able to score whether or not he plays. They will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and control the tempo of this game. 

It helps that this game is in Tuscaloosa as well, where the Tide are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games. 

Alabama can cover this spread without the added motivation Fisher provided because the products on the field are nowhere close right now.

Texas A&M vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

I’m staying away from this total. For all of Texas A&M’s issues, the talented defense is mostly still doing its job. Despite losing 42-24 to Mississippi State last week, 14 of those points came from a pick-and-kick six. But as I have been alluding to, I would not be shocked if Bama blows the doors off this one and runs up the score.

The problem for me here is wondering how Texas A&M will do its part to contribute to what goes up on the scoreboard. 

QB Haynes King was benched after poor play. But backup Max Johnson hasn’t been much better and now he is listed as day-to-day heading into this matchup. On top of that, top wide-out Ainias Smith is done for the year.

So, Saban’s defense, which ranks second in opponent yards per play (3.5) and has given up just five offensive touchdowns all season, will be able to focus on shutting down running back Devon Achane. It could be a long day for the Aggies.

Texas A&M vs Alabama betting trend to know

Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last five road games while Alabama is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games at home. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Alabama.

Texas A&M vs Alabama game info

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

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