Texas A&M vs Tennessee Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Weather Plays Major Role

With two strong and sturdy defenses facing off with a weather forecast calling for a bundle of slop, our betting picks don't anticipate either Texas A&M or the Aggies to get much going on Saturday. Will it be enough to go Under the total?

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 14, 2023 • 12:08 ET • 4 min read

College football bettors get a fantastic SEC matchup to sweat for Saturday afternoon when the Texas A&M Aggies visit Neyland Stadium for a contest with Tennessee Volunteers. 

College football odds are on the move, with the weather forecast calling for windy and possibly rainy conditions, but we've shopped around and found the best lines for this SEC clash. 

Please join us as we share our best free college football picks for Texas A&M vs. Tennessee on Saturday, October 14. 

Texas A&M vs Tennessee best odds

Texas A&M vs Tennessee picks and predictions

With poor weather conditions looming, throwing the football will be difficult Saturday afternoon, and scoring points will require some real effort as we have two exceptional rushing defenses featured in this contest.

The Texas A&M Aggies owns college football's ninth-best rushing defense, allowing a scant 84 rushing yards per game and just one TD this season. 

Texas A&M leads the country with 54 tackles for a loss and has recorded a nation-best 26 sacks, racking up at least six sacks in three straight. The Aggies also bring the 24th-best passing defense with 24 passes defended and three interceptions, including one pick-six.

The Tennessee Volunteers like to rush the football and rank seventh in the country at it. They pound the ball with a four-pronged attack featuring RBs Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, Dylan Sampson, and QB Joe Milton III. This quartet accounts for all 13 of the Vols' rushing TDs, while three wideouts each have 200+ receiving yards.

The Volunteers defense is 23rd in points allowed, and they hit hard. Tennessee allows the 36th-fewest rushing yards per game and a tidy 3.1 rushing yards allowed per attempt. They are fourth in the country in sacks while allowing a solid 192.8 passing yards per game. 

The Aggies score an average of 35.5 points but haven’t reached that number in any of their last three. A&M is 80th in rushing offense but has lost four of their 10 fumbles, and perhaps the fumbles are why the Aggies have a couple of backs averaging 5.1 yards per carry but aren’t more productive. 

QB Max Johnson has been productive since being inserted into the starting lineup two weeks ago and has seven passing TDs and two miscues. Johnson has a pair of receivers who have topped 400 receiving yards with four other Aggies with at least 100, but the wind isn’t going to be friendly on Saturday.

Finally, these defenses are stout and will only grow stronger with Mother Nature serving as the proverbial "12th Man." That will make it tougher for the respective offenses to find the end zone on what should be a wet Neyland Stadium track. The offenses will sputter, the defenses will soar, and this game will end Under 55.5 points.

My best bet: Under 55.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Texas A&M vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Under 55.5

Texas A&M +3

The Under remains in play due to the greasy weather forecast but I also like Texas A&M opposite the field-goal spread.

The Aggies defense is tremendous, and they should be able to stop the Tennessee ground game enough times for their offense to keep this game closer than three points and maybe even win outright. While taking Texas A&M on the moneyline would boost this SGP a little more, I'm opting for a little extra wiggle room on the point spread.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas A&M vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

I really like the Under in this game, and I also believe this contest will be close enough for the Aggies to cover the spread. Here are some additional notes I have for this matchup.

Aggies wideout Ainias Smith not only leads the team in receiving yards but ranks second in the country in punt return yards, averaging 20.2 yards per return, and has one return of at least 30 yards in each SEC matchup this season.

Junior LB Edgerrin Cooper is second in the nation with 12 tackles for a loss and is sixth in the country in sacks. With the weather playing a major role in the outcome of this game, Cooper can be expected to be a key presence for the Aggies defense once again as the Vols go to the ground early and often.

The Aggies defense hasn’t surrendered over 100 yards through the air and on the ground in any one game this season.

Tennessee is second in the country with 4.4 sacks per game, a ninth-ranked 47 tackles for a loss, and a 10th-best 4.4 yards allowed per play. With two polished and proven defenses taking the field in less-than-ideal weather, this is shaping up to be a bit of a slog.

Texas A&M vs Tennessee betting trend to know

Texas A&M has hit the team total Under in three of their last four games (+1.90 Units / 42% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Tennessee.

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Texas A&M vs Tennessee game info

Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

Texas A&M vs Tennessee latest injuries

Texas A&M vs Tennessee weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

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