Tennessee vs Georgia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Flex Their Muscles Against Vols

The biggest game in college football this season takes place this weekend between the hedges in Athens, Georgia.

That’s where the No. 1 ranked Tennessee Volunteers take on the No. 3 ranked Georgia Bulldogs, with a spot in the SEC title game basically on the line. 

Oddsmakers might have the rankings a bit different, as the defending champion Bulldogs are laying more than a touchdown at home. Is that a little disrespectful to Hendon Hooker and this high-powered Vols offense? 

I break it all down and give you my best bet in this game-of-the-year edition of college football picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Georgia.

Tennessee vs Georgia best odds

Tennessee vs Georgia picks and predictions

The transformation of this Tennessee program under Josh Heupel has been incredible. After a 7-6 record in his first year, he helped his team build on that momentum. 

The Volunteers enter this epic matchup at 8-0 thanks to their high-octane offense, led by quarterback Hendon Hooker. That 8-0 record includes what the CFP rankings committee considers the best win of the season, defeating No. 6 Alabama in Knoxville. 

But now, the offense that leads the nation in both total yards and scoring will get its toughest test yet in the Georgia defense. 

While no one has been able to slow down the Tennessee offense to this point, if anyone can at least limit the Vols, it will be the Bulldogs. Georgia ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play and will rely on the likes of Jalen Carter to create pressure on Hooker. Also, if the Dawgs are able to keep the Vols in front of them, their red-zone defense has been outstanding.

Additionally, Hooker and Tennessee use a lot of movement at the line of scrimmage and it is going to be absolutely rocking at Sanford Stadium on Saturday, maybe making it a little more difficult to make those adjustments.

However, the key to this game will be if Stetson Bennett will be able to take advantage of the Vols’ biggest weakness — their pass defense. Tennessee ranks 127th in the country in passing yards per game. While Bennett has only tossed nine touchdowns this season, he's throwing for nearly 300 yards per game, with a career-high completion percentage of 67.5.

On top of that, Georgia just needs this game more than Tennessee does. A loss to the Vols and it seems very unlikely that the Bulldogs will get a chance to return to the College Football Playoff and defend their title, whereas Tennessee could lose this one and still be looking pretty good in the committee’s eyes.

If the Vols lose this game and Georgia moves on and wins the SEC, the Vols’ lone loss will be to the conference champion and likely No. 1 team. And if Georgia losses to Alabama in the title game, Tennessee would then have a road victory over the SEC champ.

I think this is going to be a very exciting game but I’m giving the edge to Georgia at home. Tennessee should put on a show for a while, but the worst unit in this game is the Vols’ defense. Bennett will make some plays down the stretch to extend the lead and cover the spread.

My best bet: Georgia -8 (-105 at Caesars)

Tennessee vs Georgia spread analysis

The spread and action for this epic SEC showdown have been extremely interesting. It’s not often the No. 1 team in the country is getting more than a touchdown but that’s kind of what makes college football so great.

This line opened with Georgia as 8.5-point chalk and it has bounced around between 8 and 9. The interesting thing about that is, according to our Covers Consensus, nearly 75% of users are taking the points with the Vols. With that much one-sided action, you would think the line would drop closer to the 7.5-point range. That just hasn’t happened as of Friday afternoon. 

Tennessee is going to be a widely backed public dog in this one, but it turns out I’m siding more with the sharps. 

Tennessee vs Georgia Over/Under analysis

The action on the total has been fairly light to this point. It hit the board at 65.5 and has been bet down slightly to 64.5. I just don’t know if I would feel comfortable sitting with an Under ticket in my hand in this one.

Tennessee has scored at least 34 points in all eight games this season, which includes it putting up 52 against Alabama just a few weeks ago. This Georgia defense, while still very good, is not the historic one from last season. Who would be after losing all those players to the NFL?

The Bulldogs have given up 20 or more points three times in their last five games, and it wasn’t exactly against offensive juggernauts in Florida, Missouri, and Kent State.

But, the real reason to lean toward the Over here is how underrated this Georgia offense has been this season. The only team in the country with more total yards per game is Tennessee and it ranks sixth in scoring at 41.8 points per contest. Georgia should be able to attack a suspect Tennessee secondary and put up points as well.

Tennessee vs Georgia betting trend to know

Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against Georgia. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Georgia.

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