Tennessee vs Clemson Prediction: Orange Bowl Odds and Picks

The Tennessee Volunteers meeting the Clemson Tigers redefines what is meant by an Orange Bowl, turning the corporate naming into a literal reality.

And it is a reality led by two very unexpected quarterbacks, with bowl game odds putting the ACC orange guys as 5-point favorites over the SEC orange guys.

Which orange am I crushing for this game? See below for my free college football picks for Tennessee vs. Clemson on December 30, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Tennessee vs Clemson best odds

Tennessee vs Clemson picks and predictions

Focusing on those quarterbacks adds layers of intrigue to this Orange Bowl. Both these teams hung around the Top 10 all season, only to then stumble to South Carolina in its closing weeks. And both of them came out of that loss with a different idea at quarterback than had spurred them all season long.

For Tennessee, that was not by choice. The knee injury suffered by star QB Hendon Hooker robbed the Volunteers’ season of much of its feel-good vibes, diminishing what still finished the season as the No. 1 offense in SP+ considerations.

Hooker finished the season with a 69.6% completion rate and 9.53 yards per pass attempt — ranking fifth and first among all players attempting at least 300 passes this season.

There is no version of Joe Milton that will match that, as evidenced by his going 11 of 21 for 137 yards at Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale.

Clemson, meanwhile, needed the humbling loss to the Gamecocks to finally turn away from junior QB D.J. Uiagalelei. While a talented player and one that should create some offseason intrigue after transferring to Oregon State, Uiagalelei never quite found his footing as the Tigers’ starter.

When Clemson plugged in freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC championship game against North Carolina, everything changed. He threw for 279 yards on 20 of 24 passing, rates that should be unsustainable but perhaps could linger for this one game.

Klubnik was such a distinct change from Uiagalelei, Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown said he consciously hoped Clemson would stick with its woebegone starter in that conference title tilt.

Anyone who backed the Tigers this season with Playoff futures — speaking as somebody with a pile of +2000 tickets — will forever wonder why head coach Dabo Swinney did not turn to the five-star freshman in that 31-30 loss to South Carolina to close November.

Win that game and Clemson would almost certainly be in the CFP. That is the caliber of this team, as this current version of the Tigers should have been a Playoff team.

This current version of Tennessee... would not have been anywhere near the Top 10 this season.

Realizing that dichotomy as these offenses have (d)evolved to close this season leads to a conviction that this spread should not be within a touchdown. Add in the opt-outs of two of the Volunteers’ four best receivers and the thinking strengthens.

An alternate line bet of -6 can be found for plus money, as well, if you're feeling greedy.

My best bet: Clemson -5 (-110)

Tennessee vs Clemson spread analysis

When this game was announced, the line opened with Clemson favored by 4 or 4.5 points, and it reached as high as -6 that first afternoon and -7 by the end of the week.

The eventual opt-outs of a few Clemson skill position players dropped the line to its present -5, but the uptick from Klubnik alone should compensate for those.

Furthermore, as bowl games are so often about motivation, Klubnik creates some for Clemson. His play in the ACC title game and this game will lay the foundation for the Tigers’ 2023 campagin.

For Tennessee, no one expects Milton to be the guy next year.

Swinney and the Tigers have not often been in this position of playing a bowl game with less meaning than a CFP semifinal, but they won outright in last season’s Cheez-It Bowl, as well as in their last three bowl games before reaching their first Playoff in 2015. Swinney has some proven ability to get his team up for these games even if without title considerations.

Tennessee vs Clemson Over/Under analysis

The total never moved much from its opening number of 64, coming up on kickoff at 63.5. If anything supports dismissing the monthlong drop from -7 to -5, it is that the total did not drop with it. The Tigers’ skill-position losses sparked overreactions.

The loss of Hooker and Hyatt may lead to some natural expectation of a lower output from the Volunteers, but head coach Josh Heupel’s offense tends to produce at a higher floor than just about anybody else... and Klubnik should make up for the rest of the difference.

In-play microbetting trends for Tennessee vs Clemson

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Tennessee

Offensive score Yes: 20/37 (54%)
Offensive score No: 17/37 (45.9%)

Punts: 11/37 (29.7%)
TDs: 17/37 (45.9%)
FG attempts: 3/37 (8.1%)
TOs: 6/37 (16.2%)

Tennessee had three drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Clemson

Offensive score Yes: 19/44 (43.2%)
Offensive score No: 25/44 (56.8%)

Punts: 19/44 (43.2%)
TDs: 13/44 (29.5%)
FG attempts: 7/44 (15.8%)
TOs: 5/44 (11.3%)

Tennessee vs Clemson betting trend to know

Clemson is 3-1 ATS in its last four games, holding opponents to an average of 12 points per game in those victories. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Clemson.

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