A rivalry is renewed when Alabama meets Tennessee in Tuscaloosa.
It’s a matchup that feels like a turning point for each team's season. With both sides entering this meeting with one loss, a second defeat would put the loser behind the eight ball for the CFP.
Take a look at my early Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks for October 18.
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Tennessee vs Alabama predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Tennessee vs Alabama spread pick: Tennessee +8.5
This number feels a touch high.
Even though my projection only shows about a half-point of value, it’s still easy to argue that Tennessee Volunteers is the right side here. Last week's Alabama Crimson Tide game vs. Missouri shows why.
The Tide escaped with a win, but Missouri actually posted a 55% postgame win expectancy and outperformed Alabama in explosiveness (1.33 vs. 1.22).
The difference came from havoc: Alabama generated it, and Missouri couldn’t. That dynamic shifts this week. Tennessee protects better and also creates its own explosive plays.
The Vols rank third in the SEC in plays of 20+ and 30+ yards, and QB Joey Aguilar is coming off one of his best outings of the year against Georgia, which is the toughest defense he’s faced.
Tennessee’s secondary remains a concern and is probably the reason they won’t win outright. Still, their offensive profile—balanced, efficient, and capable of chunk gains—matches up well against Alabama’s defensive strengths.
If Tennessee limits backfield chaos and maintains their pace of explosive production, they should stay well within this number. Alabama might grind out another win, but the Vols’ ability to stretch the field makes this spread too generous.
Early Tennessee vs Alabama total pick: Over 60.5
I’m basically in line with the market on this total, but if forced to pick a side, I’m leaning toward the Over.
Alabama’s defense has already shown real vulnerability to explosive plays, and Tennessee is built to exploit that. The Vols rank near the top of the SEC in chunk gains and should do their part to push this total upward.
On the other side, Alabama should find plenty of success against a Tennessee defense that’s struggled all season. The Vols rank 91st nationally in EPA allowed per dropback and haven’t been much better against the run.
That passing weakness is particularly concerning given Ty Simpson’s emergence. The Tide quarterback owns a 16-1 touchdown-interception ratio and a QBR inside the Top 15 nationally. Those are numbers that have vaulted him toward top of the Heisman odds.
Facing a defense this shaky, he’s well-positioned to post another big day.
With both teams playing at an uptempo pace, and each offense matching up favorably against the opposing defense, there’s little reason to expect extended scoring droughts. Even with a relatively high number, the Over remains the logical side here.
Tennessee vs Alabama odds
- Tennessee vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -8.5
- Tennessee vs. Alabama moneyline: Tennessee +245, Alabama -310
- Tennessee vs. Alabama Over/Under: 60.5
How to watch Tennessee vs Alabama
- Tennessee vs. Alabama matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Tuscaloosa
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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