TCU vs Michigan Prediction: Fiesta Bowl Odds and Picks

The countdown to New Year’s Eve and the College Football Playoff is officially on and the festivities begin when the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs take on the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Horned Frogs have not only been the darling of the 2022 college football season but also one of the best bets in the country, going 9-3-1 ATS. The team is led by Heisman finalist Max Duggan and a bevy of talented skill position players and did just enough to qualify for the Playoff with a 12-1 record.

But they’ll be in tough against a very strong and motivated Wolverines team, who bowl game odds have as more than a touchdown favorite.

Michigan marched to the CFP with a perfect 13-0 record, which included the second straight year of defeating Ohio State and claiming the Big Ten title, nut after an unceremonious exit from the CFP last season, Michigan has bigger goals in mind this time around.

Do the Hypno Toads have one last spell of magic in them? Or will the physicality of the Wolverines prove too much? I break it all down and bring you my best free college football pick for the Fiesta Bowl between TCU and Michigan.

Also, check out our best TCU vs. Michigan prop picks.

TCU vs Michigan best odds

TCU vs Michigan picks and predictions

TCU qualified for the CFP for the first time in program history thanks to a 12-1 record where the lone loss came in the Big 12 title game vs. Kansas State, where the Horned Frogs fell by a field goal in overtime.

Even with that loss, TCU exceeded expectations all season long, which included big wins over the likes of Oklahoma and Baylor. Quarterback Max Duggan did it all for the Horned Frogs, throwing for 3,321 yards with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions while adding another 404 yards and six scores on the ground.

Duggan has an elite talent at wideout in Quentin Johnston while running back Kendre Miller brings balance to the TCU attack, rushing for 1,342 yards at over six yards per carry.

The Wolverines, however, present their toughest challenge yet.

Michigan completed an undefeated regular season with another resounding defeat of rival Ohio State and followed that up with a dominating performance against Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. The Wolverines are a classic team, built on running the football and strong defense. 

And that defense is good enough to slow down the TCU attack. Michigan ranks second in college football in opponent yards per play and looked fantastic in shutting down one of the best offenses in the nation when they held Ohio State to just 23 points.

In Columbus no less.

On offense, Michigan ranked fourth in the country in yards per rush behind what is arguably the best offensive line in college football. The team was dealt a blow when lead RB Blake Corum underwent season-ending surgery, but backup Donovan Edwards is more than capable.

Edwards shone when he took over the feature-back role against Ohio State, rumbling for 216 yards and two scores. And while TCU has put on some strong defensive performances this season, including limiting Texas’ Bijan Robinson, Texas isn’t Michigan.

The Wolverines will use their ground game to wear down a Horned Frogs’ defense that ranks 64th in opponent yards per rush. And if QB JJ McCarthy shows out as he did against the Buckeyes, that could be a wrap.

TCU is deserving of this CFP berth and thrilled to be here... but Michigan has been here before and has unfinished business. The team can clearly handle the loss of Corum, and I’m not sure the line move (from double digits to -7.5) should have been this drastic. 

Although I love the Hypno Toads, I think their magic ends here and I'm laying with the Wolverines at just more than a touchdown.

My best bet: Michigan -7.5 (-108)

TCU vs Michigan spread analysis

The line for the Fiesta Bowl opened with Michigan as roughly double-digit favorites. But the news of Corum missing the rest of the season was announced shortly after and the line dropped about two points to the current 7.5. But as I said, I think this adjustment is too much.

While TCU was one of the best teams to back all season in college football, going 9-3-1 ATS, the Horned Frogs certainly had some luck on their side. TCU needed multiple second-half comebacks and ended up facing several backup quarterbacks along the way to get to this point. 

And for what it’s worth, Michigan wasn’t a terrible bet either, going 8-4-1 ATS this season. There is a reason this line is what it is: Michigan is a far more complete team from top to bottom.

The Wolverines will dominate the trenches as they have done all year, win and cover the spread, potentially setting up a rematch with Georgia in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

TCU vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total for the Fiesta Bowl, the number hit the board at 60.5 and the early money came in on the Under, dropping the total to 58.5 as of Wednesday evening. At this current number, I think I would lean the other way.

Despite being a running team, Michigan hasn’t had a problem putting up points this season. The Wolverines were a Top 10 scoring offense this season, averaging 40.1 points per game, and they topped 40 points in their last two games and also did so against a strong Penn State defense earlier in the year.

You can also call this Michigan offense somewhat explosive: It ranked 11th in the country in plays of 40+ yards. Edwards is a home run hitter in the backfield and if McCarthy can continue to push the ball down the field as he did against Ohio State, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Wolverines put up another 40-burger against a TCU defense that ranked 74th in yards allowed per game.

And while the Michigan defense is solid, this TCU offense is dynamic enough to do at least some damage. TCU also average more than 40 points per game and was third in the nation in plays of 40+ yards. The Horned Frogs can strike at any time and should score enough points to send this one Over the total.

In-play microbetting trends for Michigan vs TCU

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Michigan

Offensive score Yes: 13/26 (50%)
Offensive score No: 13/26 (50%)

Punts: 9/26 (34.6%)
TDs: 8/26 (30.7%)
FG attempts: 5/26 (19.2%)
TOs: 4/26 (15.3%)

Michigan had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

TCU

Offensive score Yes: 6/19 (31.5%)
Offensive score No: 13/19 (68.4%)

Punts: 11/19 (57.8%)
TDs: 5/19 (26.3%)
FG attempts: 1/19 (5.2%)
TOs: 2/19 (10.5%)

TCU had two drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

TCU vs Michigan betting trend to know

TCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Michigan.

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