Syracuse vs Minnesota Prediction: Pinstripe Bowl Odds and Picks

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will head to New York on Wednesday to take on the Syracuse Orange in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

These two teams were headed in very different directions in the second half of the regular season. Minnesota (8-4) won four of its last five games, while Syracuse (7-5) finished the season with a win over Boston College to break a five-game losing streak.

The Orange may have something of a home-field advantage playing in New York, but the bowl game odds are siding with the Golden Gophers as Syracuse will be without one of its biggest offensive stars. We’ll break down what that means for bettors in our free college football picks and predictions for Syracuse vs. Minnesota on December 29.

Syracuse vs Minnesota best odds

Syracuse vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Syracuse started the 2022 season on an incredible roll. The Orange won their first six games to immediately secure bowl eligibility and were ranked as high as No. 14 at the midpoint of the season.

From that point on, everything went wrong. Clemson and Notre Dame handed Syracuse its first two losses and, in doing so, showed the formula for beating the Orange. While the Syracuse defense played well for most of the season, those teams and others were able to run the ball successfully against it.

Meanwhile, the Orange offense wasn’t posing much of a threat to solid defensive teams, with both Pittsburgh and Florida State holding them under 10 points.

Syracuse does have some exciting offensive players, none better than running back Sean Tucker. While head coach Dino Babers didn’t get the most out of Tucker this year, the sophomore still ran for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year and was the primary threat for opposing defenses to worry about.

Tucker has declared for the NFL draft, however, and won’t be playing in the Pinstripe Bowl. The Orange will also be without offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who is moving to North Carolina State. Those losses will further handicap an inconsistent Syracuse offense.

That brings us to Minnesota, as the Golden Gophers do two things extremely well. They can run the ball, and they play outstanding defense. That looks like an absolutely nightmarish matchup for Syracuse, especially with the recent departures.

Minnesota will have sixth-year senior Mohamed Ibrahim for his final game in the Pinstripe Bowl, and he’s exactly the kind of runner the Orange have been unable to stop this season. Ibrahim ran for 1,594 yards and 19 touchdowns this year, ranking fourth in the country in rushing yardage. He could have a field day at Yankee Stadium against a Syracuse defense that allows 150.1 rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Cuse offense will have a tough time scoring against Minnesota without Tucker. Realistically, it might have had trouble scoring even with their star. The Gophers are allowing just 13.3 points and 279.5 yards per game, both of which rank within the Top-5 in the nation.

In its last five games, Minnesota hasn’t allowed any team to score more than 16 points, and only two teams have scored 21+ points against it all year.

It's hard to find any reason to think that Syracuse will be able to stay in this game, even while playing in front of a supportive New York crowd. Minnesota should be able to move the ball behind Ibrahim, while Syracuse may struggle to even get on the board.

I expect the Golden Gophers to win by multiple scores and will be taking them to cover the spread. There are still some books offering Minnesota -9.5, and I recommend getting in on that before the lines move to -10 or higher.

My best bet: Minnesota -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Syracuse vs Minnesota spread analysis

Minnesota opened the Pinstripe Bowl as a 7-point favorite. The line has moved up since Tucker announced he wouldn’t be playing for the Orange, however, and the consensus spread is now Minnesota -9.5. 

While I focused on Syracuse’s personnel issues above, it’s not as though Minnesota comes in totally healthy. Quarterback Tanner Morgan remains questionable for the bowl game after suffering a concussion earlier in the season, which means backup Athan Kaliakmanis might get the start. The freshman threw for three touchdowns and four interceptions in limited action, though he did throw for two scores against Wisconsin in the Gophers’ last regular season game.

That won’t be a huge problem for a Minnesota team that primarily wants to run the ball anyway. Meanwhile, Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader will be asked to carry the load for the Orange, something he has struggled to do against some of the better defenses he’s played against this year. Against Notre Dame and Florida State, Shrader combined to complete 11-of-30 passes for 100 yards.

There’s no guarantee even Minnesota’s defense will make Shrader look that bad again. However, the Golden Gophers aren’t going to let the Orange move the ball easily, and they should still have enough offensive firepower to pull away.

Minnesota -9.5 is the correct play in this game.

Syracuse vs Minnesota Over/Under analysis

The total on the Pinstripe Bowl opened at 42. Unlike the spread, this number hasn’t changed much, with most sites still offering 42 as their primary Over/Under. 

That’s surprising to me, as you would think that the loss of Tucker would impact the total just as much as the spread. After all, if bettors think Minnesota is going to win by more, it’s because Syracuse is going to score less without its best offensive threat.

Neither of these teams scores a ton of points, with both averaging 28.3 per game. I’ve already talked at length about how the Golden Gophers should be able to shut down the Orange, with or without Tucker.

However, the Syracuse defense isn’t going to let Minnesota put up a ton of points here. Yes, the Gophers will be able to run the ball, but that will take time and effort against an Orange defense that doesn’t give up a lot of big plays and was rarely embarrassed this season. Syracuse is giving up 22.7 points per game on the year, and the Gophers probably won’t be able to push that number much higher.

This is the rare case where I like both a substantial favorite and the Under. The problem for Syracuse isn’t slowing down Minnesota; it will be the Orange finding a way to muster up points themselves.

I’m taking the Under at 42, as the Golden Gophers could well score around 21 points and still win this game by double digits.

Syracuse vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Syracuse is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Syracuse vs. Minnesota.

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