How do you define overvalued? In sports gambling, the correct way to approach it is to look for teams you can fade. In college football, those fades can come in a few ways.
Finding an Under on a win total, betting against a team to make the Playoff, just looking down the odds board for another team with more value to win a conference or betting against a team early in the season.
Let’s target some overvalued teams as we ready for the 2025 College Football season.
Fade Ohio State — To Miss The Playoff is available at +245 at FanDuel
The Ohio State Buckeyes dominated the College Football Playoff last year. It was remarkable and impressive. And now they have to replace both coordinators, their entire backfield, their quarterback and their entire starting defensive line.
Unlike 2024, Ohio State cannot ease into the season. Texas will be sure of that. Unlike 2024, Ohio State opens Big Ten play on the road against a quality opponent, Washington a sneaky threat unlike Michigan State last year. Unlike 2024, Ohio State has to travel to Michigan, not that it mattered last season.
Add in a visit from Penn State and it is not all that difficult to imagine the Buckeyes losing three games. And a 9-3 Ohio State probably will not make the Playoff.
Again, a first-time starting quarterback and a first-time offensive coordinator is a risky proposition anytime. It is a worrying one when facing the No. 1 team in the country to open the season. The Buckeyes could be behind the proverbial eight ball before September starts.
Fade Texas and Georgia — Bet Alabama to win the SEC at +500 at FanDuel
More specifically, fade Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton.
Manning does not need to shoulder as much of a burden as Stockton does, so if he merely plays alright this season, the Longhorns should still be dangerous. But that is far from a sure thing.
Stockton, though, was a liability in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame. Remove one chunk gain, and Stockton averaged just 5.39 yards on 31 other passing attempts.
The Bulldogs need more from him, especially as their receivers room remains suspect and this defense is a few steps down from the Georgia defenses we all loved to start the 2020s.
Recognizing Georgia’s shortcomings creates value on Alabama to win the SEC. The Tide should reach the SEC title game if only because they have the best offensive line and the best defensive line in the conference, as well as elite talent at both receiver and defensive back.
Fade Stanford — Take Hawai'i -2.5 (-108 at FanDuel) this Saturday night
Teams that had a head coaching change later than a usual carousel opened last season 24-40-1 against the spread. In the age of immediate eligibility upon transferring, a late coaching change simply exposes the roster to too much attrition with limited opportunity to replace it.
Kent State, Bowling Green and Stanford all fit that description that season. Kent State may lose to FCS-level Merrimack in Week 1. Bowling Green likely will start the season 1-5. And Stanford heads to Hawai’i to cap Week 0.
The Cardinal already struggle to hold onto talent. Firing head coach Troy Taylor in March and replacing him with Frank Reich as an interim head coach did not stem that blood loss. In fact, it effectively encouraged Stanford’s best players to leave Palo Alto.
The usual power ratings math does not quite comprehend that kind of one-way roster attrition, and thus it provides value in doubting these programs that knew spring flux.
Fade Mississippi State — Take Southern Miss +11.5 (-110) in Week 1
There is a flip side to usual power ratings math not quite comprehending one-way roster movement. That is when a new head coach brings in significant portions of his previous roster to his new stop, like Charles Huff bringing Marshall’s skill position players and most of its defense to Southern Miss. Marshall won the Sun Belt last year while Southern Miss was the worst team in the league.
Southern Miss will be more improved this season than we can grasp right now.
But this article is about overvalued teams, and that is Mississippi State in this conversation. The Bulldogs were so much worse than other SEC teams last year, the rest of the conference stopped playing hard against them. No one needed to.
Mississippi State lost its first two SEC games by a combined score of 80-41. Florida was not yet in redemption mode yet, and it still beat the Bulldogs, 45-28. Mississippi State lost to Arkansas by 33 points.
Everyone could see half effort was good enough to win. What stood out was losing the last three SEC games by an average score of 32.7-16.
Coaches called vanilla game plans, knowing they did not need to show off anything to score on the Bulldogs.
Those deflated blowouts make Mississippi State look better right now than it actually is.
Fade the Bulldogs in September. The math will catch up.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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