The 2025 Heisman Trophy conversation starts with the biggest name in college football, even if also one of the most unproven. That is what happens when you are the quarterback of the No. 1 team in the country, particularly when your last name is so famous.
But Texas quarterback Arch Manning will almost assuredly not win the Heisman. The preseason frontrunner rarely does. And at +700, even the sportsbooks do not expect Manning to win the Heisman, just that he has a better chance than anyone else.
That faith in Manning may be driven by headlines more than by on-field performance. Yes, he threw for 939 yards and nine touchdowns last season while completing 67.8% of his passes in 10 appearances, rushing for four more scores.
But 12 of those 13 total touchdowns came against Colorado State, UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. To be clear, Mississippi State was bad enough to be lumped in with those Group of Five patsies.
Even as Quinn Ewers struggled a bit in tight games at Texas A&M and against Georgia — completing 59.5% of his passes while throwing three interceptions compared to two touchdowns — Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian did not turn to Manning.
That may be an overly simplistic way to doubt Manning, but it does suggest his floor was lower than discussed last season.
The Heisman is an award for a player’s ceiling, though. Maybe Manning is that lofty. We do not know yet.
We do have complete confidence in the ceilings of my three preseason Heisman bets:
Drew Allar, Penn State QB (+1800 at FanDuel)
This is an abstract thought, focusing on a different quarterback’s regression not a usual indicator of another’s coming progression, but look at Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels in the last three seasons.
In 12 games between 2022 and 2023, Daniels threw 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions, adding another seven scores on the ground. He completed 68.2% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt.
In 12 games in 2024, Daniels threw 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, adding another six scores on the ground. He completed only 57.0% of his passes while averaging 8.18 yards per attempt.
Note: Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki left Kansas for Penn State after the 2023 season.
Kotelnicki does wonders for a quarterback’s development, including on a week-to-week basis, and a second season under him should elevate Penn State quarterback Drew Allar.
In their first season together, Allar completed 69.1% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt before the College Football Playoff. That particular 13-game stretch is pertinent, given the Heisman Trophy is awarded before the Playoff.
All that came while Penn State’s receivers were clear liabilities. Importing in a new fleet via the transfer portal should boost Allar’s stats, and he will have at least two distinct chances to shine on the national platform: vs. Oregon on Sept. 27 and at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
A Big Ten title game appearance could further cement his standing.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson QB (+900 at FanDuel)
What do Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik have in common? They were the top two QBs in the recruiting class of 2022, Allar the No. 1.
They were both reserves as freshmen and then started the next two seasons, each reaching the College Football Playoff last year. And they are both now progressing under a different offensive coordinator than the one who recruited them.
In Klubnik’s case, it is under Garrett Riley, the offensive coordinator behind TCU’s run to the national title game in 2022. His second season with Riley saw Klubnik find a downfield passing game, one that should strike fear in the ACC.
Klubnik threw 16 touchdowns on passes traveling 20+ yards in the air last season, completing 46.6% of those passes for 1,212 yards. In 2023, Klubnik completed only 37.8% of such passes for just three touchdowns and merely 458 yards.
Clemson returns its top three receivers, so there is no reason to expect anything but more from Klubnik after throwing for 3,303 yards and 33 touchdowns against just five interceptions before the College Football Playoff.
Again, that particular 13-game stretch is pertinent, given the Heisman Trophy is awarded before the Playoff.
Klubnik will be on the national stage to start the season, primetime on ABC on Aug. 30 against No. 9 LSU, and likely will be highlighted again on Oct. 4 at North Carolina.
But perhaps most notable for his possible Heisman campaign, Klubnik could and should be in two of the biggest games in the season’s final two weeks: Nov. 29 at South Carolina, the preseason No. 13 with another Heisman hopeful in quarterback LaNorris Sellers (+1,700), and then in the ACC championship perhaps against No. 10 Miami and Heisman hopeful quarterback Carson Beck (+1,800).
For an award as narrative-based as the Heisman, those closing moments should be seen as a massive Klubnik asset.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (+1200 at FanDuel)
Jeremiah Smith would be a top-10 receiver in the NFL right now, perhaps top 5. Yet he has two more college seasons ahead of him. He caught 76 passes for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, adding one more on the ground.
It can and should be noted that 381 yards and five touchdowns on 19 catches came during the Playoff, but to a very real extent, those created Smith’s Heisman hopes in 2025.
The whole world saw the freshman dominate the best defenses in the country and seal Ohio State’s national championship with a deep third-down conversion against Notre Dame.
That all came with Emeka Egbuka catching 81 passes for 1,011 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Buckeyes lack as dazzling of a second receiver this year.
A cynic would argue that means Smith will be double-teamed more often. An optimist would ponder if those double teams will simply make Smith’s highlights that much more impressive.
A realist knows receivers coach-turned-offensive coordinator Brian Hartline will be inclined to lean on his best receiver yet, particularly with a first-year starter at quarterback. Security blankets are rarely as fireworks-prone as Smith should be.
John Mateer, Oklahoma QB (+2500 at FanDuel)
Let’s hand the keyboard off to Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley:
“Brent Venables’s Oklahoma defense now resembles those that earned him all those accolades at Clemson. Now he needs an offense to do its part.
He went out and brought in up-and-coming coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to run his offense. Star Wazzu quarterback John Mateer came as a package deal with Arbuckle.
A true dual-threat, Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns to seven interceptions while adding another 826 yards and 15 scores on the ground.
If he can replicate that in Norman with a team expected to contend in the SEC, then you can bet Mateer will get Heisman votes. And at +2500, he looks like a great value bet.”
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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