Stanford vs Hawaii Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Warriors Won't Go Down Easy

For the first time since 2006, David Shaw will no longer man the sidelines for the Stanford Cardinal. After taking a nosedive with a 3-9 record a year ago, the program changed leadership and tabbed Sacramento State head coach Troy Taylor as Shaw’s successor. 

Stanford kicks off the Taylor era outside of the contiguous United States with a matchup against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (0-1) on Friday night. Timmy Chang’s squad showed plenty of signs of growth despite taking a loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 0.

There’s plenty of belief in Hawaii in both the market and college football odds board, so read on as I dive in to see if that’s warranted in my full college football picks and predictions for Hawaii vs. Stanford tonight.

Stanford vs Hawaii best odds

Stanford vs Hawaii picks and predictions

Funny enough, Troy Taylor inherits a similar situation to what his coaching opponent Timmy Chang experienced last year at Hawaii — vast amounts of roster turnover and a depleted depth chart. Tune into a college football Saturday and there’s a good chance that a former Cardinal player will be on your TV — Stanford lost 20 players to the transfer portal, including 16 that found new homes at the Power 5 level. 

We saw how poorly Year 1 started for Chang when his Hawaii team lost its first three games last year by a combined score of 168 to 37. It may not be quite that ugly for Stanford in Year 1, but it certainly isn’t going to be pretty, either. 

Both sides of the ball face immense question marks. The offense returns only three starters, has arguably the least-experienced offensive line in the country, and will have a green quarterback playing behind that likely-shakey line. The defense ranked 124th in EPA per [lay a year ago in a dreadful performance and now has a talent drain with only three starters returning.

Hawaii is returning to the Run and Shoot offense this season and early returns are encouraging. Brayden Schager completed 27 of 35 attempts (77.1%) for 351 yards and three touchdowns against Vandy in Week 0. He’s already had two go-to receivers emerge in Kansas transfer Steven McBride (7 receptions, 98 yards, 2 TDs) and redshirt freshman slotback Pofele Ashlock (7 rec, 127 yards, 1 TD). 

Despite dropping the opener 35-28, the Rainbow Warriors won the yardage battle 391 to 297 while gaining 6.5 yards per play compared to 5.3 for the Commodores. CollegeFootballData lists their win expectancy at 82% in that game — cut down on the turnovers, and they could have easily pulled off the upset. Hawaii now gets a chance at redemption at home in the second game of the year against another beatable Power 5 opponent with a focus on academics. 

Look for Chang and company to keep the foot on the gas against a suspect Cardinal secondary that has no returning starters after losing an NFL Draft pick, an impact senior, and two other upperclassmen. That’s a ton of experience to replace and this is not the type of matchup they’d hope the face against a Group of 5 team. This Hawaii team has already proved it can and will throw the ball on you if your secondary isn’t up to speed. 

This line has seen massive movement, jumping from Hawaii +7 at open to +3.5 at current. I still think there’s value at the current number and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this is an outright upset. 

My best bet: Hawaii +3.5 (-108 at Pointsbet)

Stanford vs Hawaii same-game parlay

Hawaii +3.5

Hawaii team total Over 27.5

+140 at DraftKings

This two-leg SGP features both my best bet and the Rainbow Warriors to go Over their team total of 27.5 as well considering it’s highly likely they score at least 28 points if they’re going to cover this spread. 

Both teams are likely to have a better offense than defense this year and the total is approaching 60, so the books expect a back-and-forth barn burner. Stanford’s defense was bad a year ago — surrendering 32.2 PPG and 6.6 yards per play — and that was before the mass exodus through the transfer portal. 

Vanderbilt is at least good up front and suffocated the Rainbow Warriors' rushing attack, and they still scored 28 points. Stanford’s front seven was atrocious last year, surrendering 224.4 rushing yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry while checking in at 130th in EPA per rush and 129th in rushing success rate. I considered making this team total my best bet as Hawaii should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Stanford vs Hawaii spread and Over/Under analysis

The total is currently set at Stanford -3.5 across the board — a significant change from the opener of -7.

It’s easy for me to see why there’s been so much movement. The Cardinal are in a complete rebuilding year and have a win total of just 2.5. Hawaii, meanwhile, completed its ground zero year in 2022 and already showed proof of concept that it’ll be improved this season, especially with the return of the Run and Shoot.

The total is set between 58.5 and 59.5 depending on the book. Be sure to shop around using our college football odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

Taylor is an offensive-minded head coach who will operate the spread as he calls the shots in Year 1. He’s had success at FCS stops like Sacramento State and Eastern Washington and is a California High School coaching legend for his high-scoring teams at Folsom High School.

The depth chart didn’t give a clear answer at quarterback, but I expect to see Syracuse transfer Justin Lamson running with the ones after doing so for much of Fall camp. While inexperienced, he looked terrific in back-to-back ‘Cuse spring games and was a target of Taylor’s in recruiting coming out of high school. He has two NFL players around him in running back EJ Smith and tight end Benjamin Yurosek that Hawaii will struggle to keep from having productive days at the office. 

It’s difficult for me to play an Over until we can gather more data on the new clock rules, but I lean that way as both teams are offense-oriented with head coaches known for their work on that side of the ball. Neither defense is elite. 

The current weather forecast calls for winds of 22.4 mph but sunny skies. 

Stanford vs Hawaii betting trend to know

Stanford is just 3-8 across its last 11 away games. Find more college football betting trends for Stanford vs Hawaii.

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