Southern Miss opens Sun Belt Conference play Tuesday night as 10.5-point underdogs in Troy, with the kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 6, at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala., on ESPN2.
My Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction and college football picks call for a grinder, with the Golden Eagles staying inside the number.
Who will win Southern Miss vs Troy: Southern Miss +10.5
Troy has won five straight in this series, all by two scores, but this isn't the same Trojans team.
Troy has scored 24, 17, and 10 points against FBS opponents and is 1-3 ATS, including 0-2 when laying 9.5 or more. Goose Crowder is completing just 52% of his passes and threw three interceptions in a 21-10 loss at Utah State.
Southern Miss has found something at quarterback. With Ethan Hampton out with a broken hand, Landry Lyddy threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns without a pick in a 24-21 loss at Tulane, a game the Golden Eagles led entering the fourth quarter.
Blue Chip Analytics makes Troy a 7.7-point favorite. In what should be a low-scoring game, I'll take the points down to +10.
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TOP PICK
Southern Miss vs Troy Over/Under pick: Under 49.5
The Under is 4-0 in Troy's games this season, with an average of 42.8 total points. Southern Miss's 24.5 points per game are inflated by a 49-point outing against FCS Alcorn State; against FBS teams, it has scored eight, 20, and 21 points.
Troy should lean on the run against the nation's 136th-ranked run defense, and the Trojans already hold the ball 33:26 per game.
Add two shaky kickers (a combined 7-of-14 on field goals) and a Troy defense that held No. 20 Missouri to 230 total yards, and this total is too high.
Play this one down to 48.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: Both offenses struggle to sustain drives: Troy converts just 34% of its third downs (20-for-59) and Southern Miss 33% (18-for-54).Southern Miss vs Troy combo
All three legs follow the same script: Southern Miss hangs around early, Troy's limited offense never pulls away, and the game stays in the 40s.
Troy has scored 27 points in its last two games combined, and Lyddy gives Southern Miss enough of a passing game to keep it within 10.
Southern Miss stays within a touchdown at halftime, Troy grinds away the second half, and all three legs cash.
Southern Miss vs Troy combo
- Southern Miss +10.5
- Under 49.5
- Southern Miss first half +6.5
- Top picks: 0-0, +0.0 units
- Combos: 0-0, +0.0 units
Southern Miss vs Troy odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Southern Miss +10.5 | Troy -10.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (51%) | Under 49.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Southern Miss 22% | Troy 78%
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Southern Miss vs Troy weather
Expect comfortable conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium: around 72°F with 79% humidity, a 7 mph wind, and a 4% chance of rain. Weather shouldn't be a factor for either offense or the kickers.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Southern Miss vs Troy trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Trojans' last five conference games. Find more college football betting trends for Southern Miss vs. Troy.
How to watch Southern Miss vs Troy
| Location | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala. |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Southern Miss vs Troy latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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