Friday night’s matchup between American Conference rivals South Florida and North Texas is easily the most meaningful in their history.
USF is ranked 24th and has massive wins against both Boise State and Florida already. The Mean Green have mashed their competition en route to a 5-0 start, and the Bulls are currently their only ranked opponent on the schedule.
Read below for my favorite South Florida vs. North Texas predictions, and other wagering options to consider for your college football picks.
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South Florida vs North Texas prediction
South Florida vs North Texas best bet: Under 68.5 (-115)
I understand the books need to protect themselves, but this is a massive total.
Such is the case because the North Texas Mean Green lead the American at 44.8 points per game, scoring 33+ in all five games and 45+ three times. The South Florida Bulls are also scoring in bunches, tallying 117 points in back-to-back wins over South Carolina State and Charlotte.
However, they’ve been stingy in the level-up games, holding Boise State to seven points and Florida to 16. Only their 49-12 loss to Miami went Over the total among their ranked matchups.
Both teams rank inside the conference’s Top 6 in scoring defense, with North Texas allowing 20 points per game and South Florida a couple of ticks down at 22.4 points.
North Texas is the top passing defense in the American, allowing just 135.8 yards per game and scoring strikes, while South Florida has a better run defense, a Top-5 mark at 132 yards per game.
There will still be plenty of offense, but with two of the top teams in the conference duking it out, expect resistance at times to bring this one just below the total.
South Florida vs North Texas same-game parlay
The quarters are under the spotlight for this SGP. Byrum Brown is coming off his best rushing day this season, ripping Charlotte for 162 yards and one score on a healthy 9.5 yards per tote.
The Mean Green have allowed two pivots to top this rush total on the season, and another ran for 59 yards. Brown should hit this figure comfortably.
The passing numbers for North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker are complementary to a stellar run game, as he’s thrown for 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions through five games. However, save for a 329-yard passing day in the team’s opener, Mestemaker has stayed Under this line in four straight.
South Florida vs North Texas SGP
- Under 68.5
- Byrum Brown Over 62.5 rushing yards
- Drew Mestemaker Under 257.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Eyes like a Hawkins!
Caleb Hawkins missed the Western Michigan game, but he leads the team with seven touchdowns. He’s coming off his biggest game of the year against South Alabama, running for 140 yards and two scores. He also had a 4-TD game against Army.
Meanwhile, Chas Nimrod had a season-high five grabs in a win over Charlotte, though he only had 54 receiving yards, breaking his streak of 100+ yard games at two. I like him to bounce back here.
South Florida vs North Texas SGP
- Under 68.5
- Byrum Brown Over 62.5 rushing yards
- Drew Mestemaker Under 257.5 passing yards
- Caleb Hawkins anytime touchdown
- Chas Nimrod Over 68.5 receiving yards
South Florida vs North Texas odds
- Spread: South Florida -1.5 | North Texas +1.5
- Moneyline: South Florida -125 | North Texas -105
- Over/Under: Over 68.5 | Under 68.5
South Florida vs North Texas trend to know
South Florida is 4-1 ATS this season, including outright wins over ranked Boise State and Florida. Find more college football betting trends for South Florida vs North Texas.
How to watch South Florida vs North Texas
| Location | DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX |
| Date | Friday, October 10, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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