Year 3 of the ACC Experience could look a lot like the first two for the SMU Mustangs, if oddsmakers have it correct.
SMU went 8-4 in the 2025 regular season, finishing 6-2 in ACC play but falling a half-win short of an 8.5-win total for the program's first Under in five seasons. The Mustangs enter 2026 with the same total of 8.5, giving bettors a direct look at whether SMU can return to the Over side of the ledger after coming up just short in 2025.
Here's a look at the recent history of SMU win totals, along with predictions on whether the Mustangs will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
SMU 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
SMU is 14-2 in the ACC since joining the conference. The Mustangs return quarterback Kevin Jennings and are contenders again this year. They have two huge road games at Florida State and Louisville in the first three weeks. Win both and they can punch their ticket to the ACC Championship game.
Rob Paul
Moving to the ACC has had little impact on SMU under Rhett Lashlee, with the program winning 18 regular-season games over the last two seasons.
The Mustangs should once again be near the top of the conference as QB Kevin Jennings returns for his third season as a starter. He’s not alone on offense, either, with SMU ranking No. 23 nationally in returning offensive production, thanks to key portal additions such as running back Kendrick Raphael (Cal) and wide receiver Yannick Smith (East Carolina).
The defense is portal-heavy, but it added some real talent with Jarvis Lee (South Florida), Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (Kansas State), and Marques White (UMass). And a schedule that’s 74th in SOS (.523) should help SMU push for 9+ wins.
Colby Marchio
This program has done nothing but perform at a high level since joining the ACC, and I like just about everything about this team heading into 2026.
Their toughest test comes later in the season when they travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame, but they have plenty of opportunities in the weeks prior to build momentum and rack up wins.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings returns after battling an ankle injury a season ago. In 2025, he threw for over 3,600 yards and 26 touchdowns, and he should be in line for an even bigger season in 2026. Head coach Rhett Lashlee has upgraded the offense, improving the run game, bringing back their leading slot receiver, and adding better weapons than they had a year ago, according to Lashlee.
Defensively, the Mustangs have a strong linebacker group led by Alexander Kilgore, Brandon Booker, and Brandon Miyazano. That trio combined for nearly 175 tackles in 2025 and should once again be the backbone of this defense.
I think this is another productive season for the Mustangs.
SMU win totals, odds and results (2021-25)
(SMU historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -125 | +105 | 8 | Under |
| 2024 | 8.5 | +120 | -145 | 11 | Over |
| 2023 | 8.5 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2022 | 6.5 | -175 | +145 | 7 | Over |
| 2021 | 6.5 | -130 | +110 | 8 | Over |
🔑 Key Takeaways
- A strong Over lean, though the dataset is small: SMU has gone Over its win total four times in five graded seasons, against just one Under. The 80% Over rate is the highest in the ACC, but five seasons is a thin basis for strong conclusions (and the Mustangs are a new arrival).
- Four consecutive Overs from 2021 through 2024: SMU cleared its win total in every season of this dataset through 2024, a run that spanned three seasons in the AAC and the program's first year in the ACC. The streak covered a range of totals from 6.5 to 8.5.
How SMU win totals are priced
Are oddsmakers bored with SMU's consistency? Or are they simply locked in on a team that sports a win total of 8.5 for the fourth consecutive year?
The Mustangs didn't sneak up on anyone in 2025, failing to reach double-digit victories for the first time in three seasons (though in fairness, three of their four losses came by three or fewer points). An easy non-conference schedule helps the cause this season, as does avoiding Miami, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and Duke.
But don't automatically lock in the O8.5; SMU's schedule finishes with plenty of pain, including games against 9-win Wake Forest and national powerhouse Notre Dame and a cross-country season finale at Stanford.
SMU enters 2026 with an ACC win total of 6.5, with the Over at -115 and the Under at -105.
The Mustangs are a red-hot 14-3 SU (11-6 ATS) in conference play since joining the ACC at the start of the 2024 season.
SMU win total FAQs
Will SMU make the CFP?
SMU is priced at +350 to reach the 2026-27 playoff.
What is SMU's projected win total?
The Mustangs' win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at -125 and the Under at +105.
Who is SMU's starting QB?
Kevin Jennings will look to build on an impressive 2025 as a senior for SMU. Jennings racked up more than 3,600 yards and 26 touchdowns last season.
What's the best bet for SMU this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the Mustangs' OVER is one of the stronger win total plays on the board.
