Texas was oh-so-close to returning to the National Championship last season, and now, Arch Manning is here to lead a loaded roster into the season.
So, is Texas truly back?
The Longhorns are the favorites to win the SEC, but with stalwarts Alabama and Georgia not far behind, and teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina on the rise, that will be easier said than done.
I break down the best conference in CFB and bring you my college football picks to go along with it.
SEC best bets for 2025
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Alabama to win SEC | +500 |
| Vanderbilt Over 4.5 wins | -188 |
| Oklahoma to make the CFP | +490 |
| Ryan Williams Over 1,050 receiving yards | -114 |
Read on for our full analysis and SEC breakdown!
Odds to win the SEC
| Team | Odds to win | Win total O/U |
|---|---|---|
 Texas |
+2780 | 9.5 |
 Georgia |
+290 | 9.5 |
 Alabama |
+500 | 9.5 |
 LSU |
+650 | 8.5 |
 Texas A&M |
+1500 | 7.5 |
 Auburn |
+1900 | 7.5 |
 Mississippi |
+1900 | 8.5 |
 Florida |
+2200 | 7.5 |
 Oklahoma |
+2200 | 7.5 |
 Tennessee |
+3000 | 8.5 |
 South Carolina |
+3300 | 7.5 |
 Missouri |
+6500 | 6.5 |
 Arkansas |
+15000 | 5.5 |
 Kentucky |
+30000 | 4.5 |
 Mississippi State |
+30000 | 3.5 |
 Vanderbilt |
+30000 | 4.5 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
SEC preview: Tight quarters
For the longest time, the SEC was the Nick Saban and Alabama Show. Then Kirby Smart and Georgia joined the party to make this conference a two-horse race most years.
With Saban now gone, Texas joining the favorites, and several teams on the rise, the SEC feels more wide open and competitive than ever before.
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M all have win totals between 7.5 and 9.5. And let me tell you, not all of those teams are going Over those numbers.
Yes, there is a lot of hype surrounding the Longhorns, but getting to the SEC Championship game in 2025 is truly running a college football gauntlet.
The favorites
So, are the Longhorns all the way back?
If they pull it off, it will be because they have arguably the best roster in the country after reloading on offense with an already insane defense.
They’ll also have to get over the hump of beating Georgia. The Bulldogs handed Texas two losses last season, including in the SEC Championship. UGA has another elite roster, but its biggest question mark is at QB with Gunner Stockton beginning the year as the starter.
Stockton stepped in for Carson Beck in the SEC Championship game, but looked overwhelmed against Notre Dame and averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt over both games.
The team to watch out for in the top trio might be Alabama. Year 2 of the Kalen DeBoer era.
Ty Simpson won the QB job and will play behind arguably the best offensive line in the country, with one of the best weapons in wideout Ryan Williams. In fact, ESPN’s S&P+ rating has Bama the highest of this trio.
On the fringe of favorite status is Brian Kelly and LSU. The Bayou Bengals have arguably the best QB in the conference in Garrett Nussmeier, who will be throwing to arguably the best WR duo in the country.
However, the defense is still suspect and could hold the Tigers back.
The rest of the field
The rest of the conference is highlighted by strong quarterback play.
Oklahoma brought in the OC-QB combo of Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer from Washington State while also adding former Cal star RB Jayden Ott. Brent Venables is hoping these additions bring the Sooners’ offense to the same level as a defense that looks like one of the best in the nation.
Meanwhile, DJ Lagway has cooled off Billy Napier’s seat at Florida, and LaNorris Sellers for South Carolina looks like one of the most exciting young players in the conference. Both have solid defensive fronts, and don’t be surprised if either makes some noise this season.
Lane Kiffin and Mississippi loaded up in the transfer portal again, but replacing Jaxson Dart will be tough. Nico Iamaleava’s shocking departure to UCLA also leaves Tennessee with a lot of question marks.
Pick to win the SEC: Alabama (+500)
I do think one of Texas, Georgia, or Alabama wins the SEC this season. And while all three rosters are super talented, they're also all flawed. Most of those flaws begin with the most important position.
So, who has the best ability to support these inexperienced QBs, and which team gives us the most value? I’m taking Alabama at +500, instead of Texas at +280 or Georgia at +290.
There are a couple of reasons for this. When I’m handicapping college football, evaluating the trenches is first and foremost. Who can pressure the quarterback, and who can protect their own?
Bama has a defense that will rival Texas and will be in the conversation for the best in the nation, while also having arguably the best offensive line in the country, led by Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford.
It is also Year 2 of Kalen DeBoer in Tuscaloosa. With a full offseason to implement his system with his players, we could see a big jump from the Crimson Tide this season.
All DeBoer did with his second season in Washington was take the Huskies to the National Championship Game.
Favorite win totals bet: Vanderbilt Over 4.5 wins (-188)
Put some respect on Vanderbilt’s name!
The Commodores are coming off a 7-6 season, which included big wins against Alabama and Auburn — culminating in a win in the Music City Bowl against North Carolina State.
Vandy is looking to build off that success. Clark Lea has his most experienced team yet, with 17 returning starters, which includes star quarterback Diego Pavia. Yet, oddsmakers don’t believe in the Commodores, setting their win total for 2025 at 4.5.
Blasphemous!
This team has a very good chance to be 4-1 through the first five games of the season, meaning it would need just one conference win. The Commodores host Missouri and Kentucky, both on downward trends. They also host Auburn, whom they’ve already proven they can beat.
I’m also not taking another big upset off the table. This win total is disrespectful, and I have Vandy closer to a six or seven-win team than a four-win one.
Bonus bet: Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff (+490)
This is one of my favorite futures bets for this entire college football season.
The first few seasons of the Bren Venables era were a little tough for Sooners fans, but we are now in Year 4 of his tenure, and with his players and system in place, things are looking up in Norman.
Last season, we started to get a glimpse of what a Venables defense could look like with Oklahoma resources. The Sooners had one of the country’s best stop units — finishing 11th in defensive success rate — and are returning eight starters. Their defensive line, led by Mason Thomas, will be one of the fiercest in the nation.
Now, all Venables needs is an offense to match and give him credit; he’s giving it his best shot. He went out and nabbed up-and-coming Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to be his offensive coordinator, and Arbuckle’s star QB at Wazzu, John Mateer, followed him to Norman.
Mateer threw for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while adding another 826 yards and 15 scores on the ground. Joining Mateer in the Oklahoma backfield is former Cal star running back Jayden Ott.
The Sooners have a tough schedule, but if the offense is even close to competent, this defense could wreak havoc on a conference full of inexperienced quarterbacks.
A 10-win season is definitely on the table for Oklahoma, and in the SEC, that should be good enough to get in the College Football Playoff.
Best SEC player prop bet
Ryan Williams, WR: Over 1,050 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Most college football fans would agree Alabama’s Ryan Williams is the second-best wideout in the country behind Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith.
Williams had 865 yards receiving and 10 total touchdowns last year, but that was with some inconsistent quarterback play from Jalen Milroe, and he got all those yards on just 48 receptions. Williams will see a significant bump in Year 2.
HC Kalen DeBoer, has had a whole offseason to implement his system, which produced multiple 1,000-yard receivers in his last two seasons at Washington.
The other difference this year will be Ty Simpson as the starting QB for Bama. The redshirt junior has patiently waited for his shot to start, and now it’s here. He’s also a much more passing-forward signal caller compared to Milroe, meaning Williams could be in for a monster year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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