Some things defy understanding.
The Sam Houston State Bearkats being favored on the road against the New Mexico State Aggies is one of those things.
Until on-field results explain that line, tonight's Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State predictions will steadfastly believe in the short home underdog.
Find out more in my college football picks for Thursday, October 2.
Kickoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State prediction
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State best bet: New Mexico State moneyline (+110)
The New Mexico State Aggies should be favored outright. That could be this entire preview.
To put some logic to what should be an obvious statement: New Mexico State throws the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the country, 12.8% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs.com.
And given this is New Mexico State we are discussing, the Aggies throw the ball with some impressive explosive abilities. Despite ranking No. 115 in the country in dropback success rate, New Mexico State ranks No. 77 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. If failing that often, how is that dropback EPA decent? Explosive plays.
And now the Aggies have a home game on a short week against the worst EPA passing defense in the country. There is a reason opponents throw against the Sam Houston State Bearkats at the 12th-highest rate in the country, 7.7% more often than would be expected against an average defense in a given game state. It's because throwing against the Bearkats works.
It should work for New Mexico State. And on top of that, this Aggies defense is better than their offense, furthering the thoughts of this outright upset.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State same-game parlay
If ever there's a time to trust a scripted drive, it should be in this game. New Mexico State has a short week and an advantageous offensive matchup. Focus on that with a strong opening drive, and the Aggies should be in control early.
At that point, they should keep throwing. As that adds possessions to the game, this Over should cash relatively easily.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State 3-leg SGP
- New Mexico State moneyline
- Over 52.5
- New Mexico State first quarter -1.5
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State game predictions
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State moneyline prediction
Sportsbooks are profitable for a reason. They set lines like this that confound us bettors, and then they end up right. So for a moment, let’s ponder why Sam Houston State would be favored at all.
Nope, no idea. The Bearkats are 0-4 this season, both outright and against the spread. Three of those four passing offenses are better than New Mexico State’s, but even Hawaii hung 37 points on Sam Houston State.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State spread prediction
The Bearkats are not only 0-4 against the spread. They have fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 10.1 points, never losing by less than a touchdown worse than the spread expected.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Over/Under prediction
Three Overs have cashed in Sam Houston State’s four games, the exception coming by 1.5 points against UNLV. The Bearkats’ passing defense simply begs for too many points against.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State odds
- Spread: Sam Houston -2.5 | New Mexico State +2.5
- Moneyline: Sam Houston -132 | New Mexico State +112
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State trend to know
New Mexico State is 2-1 both against the spread and outright as a one-score underdog under second-year head coach Tony Sanchez. Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs New Mexico State.
How to watch Sam Houston vs New Mexico State
| Location | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date | Thursday, October 2, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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