Bowl season is in full swing, and Saturday’s LendingTree Bowl between the 5-7 Rice Owls and 6-6 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles should be an entertaining affair.
Conference USA representative Rice is looking to shake a three-game losing streak, while Sun Belt member Southern Mississippi snapped a three-game losing streak of its own with a final victory over Lousiana-Monroe.
Who will be crowned LendingTree Bowl Champion? Read our college football picks and predictions for Rice vs. Southern Mississippi below to find out.
Rice vs Southern Mississippi best odds
Rice vs Southern Mississippi picks and predictions
In a game where both sides are tickled pink just to be here, my best bet is for this matchup to go Over 46.5 points.
The Owls' offense is more than adequate. Despite leading the country in turnovers, they score 25 points per game, facing a Southern Mississippi defense allowing 23.5 points per game but finished 12th in plays over 20 yards (63) in Sun Belt action.
Junior quarterback TJ McMahon leads the Owls but missed their season finale. He’s slung it for 2,102 yards with 18 touchdowns, but 14 interceptions are also part of the package. If McMahon doesn’t suit up, frosh QB AJ Padgett proved capable with 229 passing yards and a TD against North Texas.
Rice has three wideouts with big play potential in Bradley Rozner, Luke McCaffrey, and Isaiah Esdal, who combined for 1,951 yards and 15 TDs. Rozner averages 20 yards per reception and while McCaffrey missed the season finale, he should be good to go Sunday.
Golden Eagles running back Frank Gore Jr is one of the best in the country, scampering for 1,053 yards with seven TDs, and has also thrown a TD pass in each of his last three games. He should eat against a defense allowing 168 rushing yards per game.
The Southern Miss revolving-door quarterback situation seems to have solved itself. Trey Lowe started and played the entire game in its win over UL Monroe while throwing for 170 yards and a TD on 62% accuracy. He has a trio of steady hands in wideouts Jason Brownlee, Tiaquelin Mims, and Jakarius Caston, with a combined 1,537 receiving yards and 13 TD receptions.
Rice had injury and turnover issues that kept what should be a high-scoring offense from taking off. Turnovers are what they are, but Rice is at least healthier and should be able to move the ball and score against the Golden Eagles.
Southern Miss is prone to surrendering the big play and Rice has a handful of playmakers who can gash this defense. Meanwhile, Gore should have a field day against a less-than-stout Owls rushing defense, with his success ultimately setting up downfield passes.
These teams will battle and traditionally play close games, but this 45.5-point total is too low for this contest. Back the Over.
My best bet: Over 45.5 (-110 at Pinnacle)
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Rice vs Southern Mississippi spread analysis
College football odds have Southern Miss listed as a 6.5-point favorite and I expect them to cover that number.
Gore is coming off his best game of the season — gashing ULM for 199 yards and score — and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season. The Owls' defense allows 4.9 yards per rush and a big night here could set himself up as one of the 2023 Heisman candidates.
The Owls aren’t a bad defensive football team, but turnovers have taken the Rice offense out of games they probably should’ve won and left the defense with some awful field position to defend.
It’s challenging winning games averaging 2.5 turnovers per game and more complicated when facing a defense like the Golden Eagles averaging a 33rd-best 1.6 takeaways per contest.
This season, Rice was 7-5 against the spread, facing a Southern Miss side that went 8-3-1 ATS. The Owls are 2-4 ATS over their previous six matchups, while the Golden Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS over their last six contests.
Rice vs Southern Mississippi Over/Under analysis
Up until this season, these schools were both parts of C-USA and played each other every season. The Over has gone 3-3 during the last six meetings but is just 0-3 in the three most recent meetings.
Rice junior RB Ari Broussard leads the Owls with nine rushing TDs but hasn’t played since losing two fumbles in an away loss to Lousiana Tech. Cameron Montgomery led Rice in rushing yards and ran for 49 yards in the Owls' loss to North Texas.
Junior RB Juma Otoviano ran for 94 yards against the Mean Green. Southern Miss allows the 62nd-fewest rushing yards in the game, but both Rice backs have big plays on their resumes and could bust off a huge run at any moment.
These teams are a combined 15-9 to the Over this season and I expect that to continue on Saturday.
Rice vs Southern Mississippi betting trend to know
The Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Rice vs. Southern Mississippi.
Rice vs Southern Mississippi game info
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Rice vs Southern Mississippi latest injuries
Rice vs Southern Mississippi weather
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