The Notre Dame Fighting Irish’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and getting a victory over the Purdue Boilermakers is of vital importance.
The Battle for the Shillelagh Trophy may not be the utter blowout we saw a season ago, but the Irish are heavily favored. Here are our early Purdue vs Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Purdue vs Notre Dame predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Purdue vs Notre Dame spread pick: Purdue +27.5
The Purdue Boilermakers have already picked up an additional point since the line opened, and I’m more than happy to take it. It feels like people are remembering the Notre Dame Fighting Irish’s beat-down of the Boilermakers from a season ago, when Purdue went 1-11.
But this isn’t the same Purdue team. Just ask USC, which failed to cover a three-touchdown spread after finding itself in a battle on Saturday. Purdue’s three turnovers doomed it to failure, but an upset was there for the taking.
And right now, I simply don’t trust the Irish defense. They’re not only failing to get stops, but they rank in the 100s in defensive success, defensive net EPA/drive, and net field position. Oh, they also rank 123rd in pass defense success rate and have one of the lowest havoc rates in college football.
Purdue is finding great success in the passing game, ranked 32nd in passing success rate and 40th in net EPA/drive. The Boilermakers are notching explosive plays both in the air and on the ground, and are in the Top 25 in third-down conversion rate.
Notre Dame should win, but by four touchdowns? There’s nothing I’ve seen so far that makes me think the Irish are that much better than Purdue. Take the points.
Early Purdue vs Notre Dame total pick: Over 51.5
This is an easy Over for me. I gave Purdue’s offense quite a bit of praise, but you’ll notice I didn’t say a single thing about the defense.
Outside of preventing explosive run plays, there’s not a whole lot the Boilermakers are doing well on that side of the ball. USC scored 33 this past weekend, and SIU scored 17 before that.
Sure, they scored a shutout against Ball State, but I think some Indianapolis high school teams could do that for at least a half.
On the flip side, we just got done watching Notre Dame and Texas A&M score a combined 81 points on Saturday night, and the Irish gave up 27 to Miami in a 51-point game as well.
Purdue’s going to score points here, but the Notre Dame offense will have a strong day as well. USC ran the ball with success using two running backs, and Notre Dame will unleash Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
CJ Carr showed he can air it out a bit against the Aggies and will punish a Purdue defense ranked 126th in EPA/pass.
The Boilermakers will find some big plays in the passing game and make this game interesting as well. They’ll score 20+ and help push this one closer to 60 points.
Purdue vs Notre Dame odds
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame +27.5
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Purdue +1600, Notre Dame -4500
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Purdue vs Notre Dame
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Notre Dame, IN
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC/Peacock
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
