The stakes are clear in seven conference championship games: Win and you have at least a chance to make the College Football Playoff, but miss and your positioning is at risk, at best. Yes, that is true of seven of the nine title games, not a mere five.
Thank the ACC for that expanded delight this weekend. If Duke upsets Virginia, it is entirely conceivable that James Madison could reach the Playoff if it wins the Sun Belt. If Duke wins but the Dukes lose, suddenly it would be possible that the Mountain West or even the Conference USA champion could make the Playoff.
And in two of the Power Three title games — look, ACC, you are an afterthought now and until further notice despite Miami’s complaints — first-round byes are very much on the line for Texas Tech, Georgia and Alabama. Only the Big Ten and the MAC title games should not impact the Playoff bracket, for distinctly opposite reasons.
Many critics of the 12-team Playoff insisted it devalued conference championship games. But how often have so many games mattered so much this weekend?
Keep those stakes in mind as you ponder these college football predictions headed into conference championship weekend.
College football predictions Conference Championship Week
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech -12.5 |
-115 at FanDuel |
 Alabama moneyline |
+116 at FanDuel |
 / North Texas vs. Tulane Under 67 |
-105 at Caesars |
 James Madison -23.5 |
-105 at BetMGM |
 Miami (OH) Moneyline |
+111 at Caesars |
Texas Tech -12.5
If one wanted to be a cynic entering this weekend, they could argue that the Big 12 has too many reasons to want BYU into the College Football Playoff to let this conference championship game go to the favorite. Let’s dismiss those conspiracies. Realize how many people would need to keep the secret of any undue influence in Dallas. It simply defies logic.
Instead, the value in this line comes from the simply reality that bookmakers have refused to give Texas Tech proper appreciation. That made some sense for most of the season. This kind of imported roster is still largely unprecedented, so setting expectations can be quite difficult with it.
But by now, the Red Raiders need to be seen as national championship contenders and nothing less than that. Adjusting for opponents, Texas Tech has the No. 3 EPA margin in the country, per CFB-graphs.com, and the best defense in the country. (EPA: Expected points added, a metric of down-to-down success relative to game state.)
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
— parker fleming (@statsowar) December 1, 2025
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best! pic.twitter.com/zPSjeiuN5K
Look beyond advanced metrics to gambling results. The Red Raiders have gone 8-1 against the spread against Power Four competition, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.3 points in those nine games, even including the single ATS loss. Only three of those ATS wins were within one score of the spread.
This became most clear and most impressive on Saturday, when Texas Tech beat West Virginia, 49-0, as a 24-point favorite. If ever there was a moment to do the bare minimum, that was it. A chance to get an early lead and coast into the postseason.
Instead, the Red Raiders scored touchdowns on seven of eight quality possessions. They know no chill.
If Texas Tech has not stumbled with starting quarterback Behren Morton behind center — missing not only the Red Raiders’ sole ATS loss but also their only ATS win against Power Four competition that came within a score of the spread — why start thinking it will stumble now?
For that matter, yes, Texas Tech has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations against Power Four competition by an average of 16.5 points with Morton behind center, including an average of 16.1 points in November.
Alabama moneyline
The stakes of this moment should play into plenty of motivation. Alabama has a slight worry of missing the Playoff with a loss, while Georgia should have no such concern. That kind of desperation can prove the difference among 18- to 23-year-olds.
But mostly, the Tide simply have the Bulldogs’ number, particularly through the air. Alabama gashed Georgia for 0.490 expected points per dropback in their late September trip to Athens. Ty Simpson completed 24-of-38 passes for 276 yards and two scores, somewhat modest numbers better emphasized by that EPA rate, a top-20 percentile performance.
As far as the SEC goes, Georgia’s passing defense is only middling, ranking No. 7 in the conference. It was a proven liability against Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi and Mississippi State. It was barely an asset against Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Those are too many problematic showings to be anything but what it is, a worry.
The Tide should exploit it again and quite possibly vault from the Playoff bubble to a Playoff bye with an SEC championship.
North Texas vs. Tulane Under 67
North Texas could be an entertaining Playoff watch. Its offense would find some success against nearly any defense in the country, and if it managed to strike first in a road game in the first round of the Playoff, that moment alone would provide intrigue. Do not hear the following as any dismissal of the Mean Green.
But North Texas has a massive defensive weakness, the run. The Mean Green rank No. 124 in the country in defensive success rate against the rush, allowing opponents to stay ahead of the chains on 48.8% of their carries.
While North Texas’s defense fares well on early downs, ranking No. 26 in the country in early-down EPA, it falls apart on late downs, giving up late-down conversions on 47.1% of attempts, the ninth-worst rate in the country.
Even if Tulane also enjoys a quality offense, the Green Wave should not try to outscore North Texas in an up-and-down game. Tulane’s best approach is to slow this game down and rely on its decent rushing attack.
It is not a stellar one, which furthers the belief in this Under, but it should be a worthwhile enough run game to find success against North Texas.
James Madison -23.5
What would it take for James Madison to make the Playoff besides winning the Sun Belt? A Duke win in the ACC title game looks like it would be enough to propel the Dukes into the bracket, but could they also jump North Texas if Duke loses but both the Mean Green and the Dukes win?
North Texas is currently No. 24 in the Playoff committee’s rankings, with James Madison at No. 25. If the Mean Green win ugly while the Dukes win by four scores, would the committee reshuffle?
It is not impossible.
Is that enough reason to bet on James Madison?
If not, then also realize the Dukes have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five Sun Belt games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 21.8 points even including the ATS loss. They have already been running up scores on opponents, be it by default or by the added motivation of the committee’s skepticism.
Furthermore, Troy’s offense is too inept to keep up in any version of a blowout. The Trojans’ offense ranks No. 119 in the country in EPA, struggling in all regards but perhaps most worryingly, mounting quality drives on just 35.2% of possessions, No. 106 in the country.
Miami (OH) Moneyline
Chuck Martin’s quiet career in the MAC has yielded two conference championships in the last six years, including in 2023. He has learned how to build momentum in this odd schedule rhythm, and that should be an edge against Lance Taylor and Western Michigan.
There may also be a slight edge in freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski, Miami’s third starting quarterback this season. He has started only the last two games — the RedHawks’ initial starter Dequan Finn left the team as the season did not shine for him as anticipated.
And then Martin turned to Gotkowski over veteran backup Henry Hesson after the latter struggled in a loss against Toledo, throwing three interceptions. But Gotkowski averaged 8.7 yards per attempt in his two starts, did not throw an interception and tossed four total touchdowns.
Miami’s offense found more success in the regular-season finale against Ball State than it had since beating Western Michigan on Oct. 25. Oh, right, also, the RedHawks already won this matchup once despite the Broncos enjoying both an explosive touchdown and a touchdown courtesy of a short field.
That could have been a RedHawks’ blowout. Perhaps it should have been. Gotkowski’s solid play and Martin’s savvy should now at least yield a conference title.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 29-45.5-1 this season for -15.31 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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