This year's Sun Bowl features a great matchup between the ACC and Pac 12.
Pittsburgh represents the ACC as the conference’s 2021 champions, who followed up with an eight-win campaign this season.
They'll be in tough against 9-3 UCLA, who finished with its best regular season yet under head coach Chip Kelly.
Bowl game odds have the Bruins listed as a modest favorite, but which team will end the year on a high note today? Find out in our free college football picks for Pittsburgh vs. UCLA on December 30.
Pittsburgh vs UCLA best odds
Pittsburgh vs UCLA picks and predictions
Pittsburgh didn’t quite live up to its lofty heights of 2021 when the Panthers won 11 games en route to an ACC Championship. The stars from that team departed, as Kenny Pickett now plays on Sundays, and Jordan Addison transferred to USC.
After butting heads with head coach Pat Narduzzi, former offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left for Nebraska, and the Panthers’ offense cratered, dropping from 41.4 points per game a year ago to just 30.8 this season.
Pitt won its last four games of the season against Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, and Miami to reach eight wins overall. The Panthers will be shorthanded in this matchup as starting quarterback Kedon Slovis transferred to BYU following the conclusion of the regular season, and ACC leading rusher Israel Abanikanda has opted out of the Sun Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Two starting offensive linemen (Gabe Houy and Carter Warren), All-American defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and leading tackler SirVocea Dennis are among the other defections.
Meanwhile, UCLA appears to be close to full strength for this matchup. Star quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and runningback Zach Charbonnet have both been described as “on track to play” by Chip Kelly. This is welcome news for the program, given the sheer amount of opt-outs for other programs during bowl season.
The Bruins went 9-3 this season, and two of those losses (USC and Oregon) are entirely understandable. The lone real blemish on the resume is an inexcusable 34-28 loss to Arizona back on November 12. A high-powered offense averaging 39.6 ppg is the primary driver of success, supporting a defense that surrenders 28.3 a contest The Bruins were one of the better teams in the Pac-12 this season and appear motivated to finish the season on a high note, given that the offensive stars appear primed to play.
Pitt is a wounded animal in this spot. The offense has been hit hard without many key defections and will likely be led by Nick Patti, who completed just nine of his 20 attempts this season for 79 yards. The defense is in even worse shape and will be without its Top-4 players in terms of racking up tackles for a loss.
The betting line has been all over the place, moving from UCLA -4 at open to as high as -7 on Tuesday before settling at -5.5 at the time of this writing. Personally, I don’t think this line is wide enough. Pitt has been hit as hard as any team during bowl season by transfers and opt-outs, while UCLA will reportedly be close to full strength.
It’s difficult to accurately project this matchup, given that Pitt will be almost entirely a new-look team. Still, I’m willing to believe that an underhanded Panthers team will look more like a wounded animal than a rejuvenated, motivated squad for the bowl game.
My best bet: UCLA -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Pittsburgh vs UCLA spread analysis
Neither program was profitable to back in the betting market this season, as Pitt went 5-7 against the spread while UCLA was dead even at 6-6 ATS.
Pitt hasn’t traditionally shown up in bowl games, going 1-5 ATS in its last six appearances. A year ago, a shorthanded Pitt team fell 31-21 to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl. The Panthers are just 2-6 in their last eight neutral-site games.
Normally, we’d say that this would be a great matchup between a high-powered UCLA offense (sixth in EPA per play, second in Success Rate) and a stout Pitt defense (seventh in EPA per play, 13th in Success Rate).
With the Panthers being severely short-handed offensively, it’s unsure whether or not that will be the case for the season finale. Without at least its top four leaders in tackles for loss, it’s worth questioning whether Pitt’s great front seven (eighth in Line Yards, sixth in Stuff Rate) will continue playing at an elite level.
UCLA’s defense has been a sieve this season, ranking 106th in EPA per play and 120th in Success Rate. Can Patti make the Bruins pay? That could be the difference in covering the spread, as we can forecast UCLA’s offense to do some damage.
Pittsburgh vs UCLA Over/Under analysis
The total has come crashing down since opening at 60.5. Currently, most shops are offering 53.5, but be sure to shop around.
UCLA is a wagon on offense, gaining 507.8 total yards per game on 7.0 yards per play. Thompson-Robinson can beat you both through the air (2,883 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns) and on the ground (631 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns) as one of the country’s most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks.
On the ground, Charbonnet averaged a robust 7.0 yards per play en route to 1,680 scrimmage yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Against a shorthanded Pitt defense, we should expect UCLA to score here.
Pitt’s offense is a difficult handicap, given that the Panthers will be without so many important pieces. They should still be able to run with success against a Bruins defense that ranks 95th in EPA per rush and 109th in Rushing Success Rate. Patti may not need to be the most prolific passer in the world to beat a Bruins secondary that ranks just 103rd in EPA per pass and 121st in Rushing Success Rate.
UCLA’s been a simple team to figure out in the sense that the offense is elite and the defense is terrible. I’m buying the dip on this total, which is as low as 52.5 at some books.
Pittsburgh vs UCLA betting trend to know
Pitt is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. UCLA.
Pittsburgh vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date: | Friday, December 30, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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