College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Big Cats Gotta Eat

It’s hard to believe that there are only two weeks left in the college football regular season, and with conference championship week on the horizon, a lot hangs in the balance in Week 12.

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the Louisville Cardinals. The Cards are just one win away from advancing to the ACC title game, in Jeff Brohm’s first season with the team no less. Standing in their way? A matchup against an inconsistent Miami Hurricanes team and some short road chalk.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys can’t afford anymore slip-ups if they have any hopes of winning their fist Big 12 Championship since 2011. The Pokes are coming off an embarrassing loss but present us with an interesting bounce-back spot when they take on the Houston Cougars as road favorites.

And while there is no conference championship coming for the Missouri Tigers, this season has been a resounding success. A New Year’s Six bowl game could be in the cards if they win out. 

I break down the college football odds and bring you my best free college football picks in the Week 12 edition of my Triple Option.

College football Week 12 picks

• Louisville -1.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma State -6.5 (-110)
• Missouri team total Over 34.5 (-111)

Picks made on November 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 12 odds, picks, and predictions

Louisville vs Miami prediction

There were several teams expected to battle Florida State for supremacy in the ACC. North Carolina and Clemson were the obvious choices. Even Miami or Duke were considered dark horse contenders.

But not many picked the Louisville Cardinals to be in the position they’re in heading into this week’s matchup with Miami. The Cardinals own a 9-1 record and are just one win away from advancing to the ACC title game.

Louisville is led by star running back Jawhar Jordan and a stout defense. Jordan has rumbled for 976 yards at a clip of 6.9 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns this season. But he’ll be in tough against a solid Miami front seven. So, the Cards may have to rely on quarterback Jack Plummer in this one.

Plummer has been inconsistent at times this season, but the Hurricanes would be thrilled to have him as their quarterback.

Miami is in a tough spot this week. It felt like the Canes went "all in" last week in trying to upset rival Florida State. And to be fair, they played the Seminoles tough. But it wasn’t enough, losing 27-20. 

Miami benched longtime starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke before that game for Emory Williams. Then Williams broke his arm, and the Canes will have to turn back to Van Dyke after basically telling him they have no confidence in him. And it’s not like Williams was balling out. He went 8-for-23 vs. FSU.

Now, Van Dyke will have to face a really good Louisville defense that loves to pressure the quarterback. The Cardinals rank 24th in opponent yards per play, ninth in opponent yards per rush and opponent completion percentage, and 36th in sack rate. Overall, Louisville ranks 27th in defensive success rate.

Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke in a presser earlier today:

“I’m not going to let football consume my happiness.”

Not something you want to hear from your starting QB 😬 pic.twitter.com/ohaCvJ5eJb

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) November 15, 2023

While these two defenses are comparable, the offenses aren’t. Oh, and did you hear Van Dyke say he wouldn’t let a tough football season, "consume my happiness?" Just what you want to hear from your quarterback. A motivated Louisville team gets the job done here and covers the short chalk.

PICK: Louisville -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Oklahoma State vs Houston prediction

Oklahoma State was looking like a wagon heading into last week’s game against UCF. The Cowboys had won five games in a row, which included victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kansas State. Ollie Gordon was getting mentioned as a dark-horse Heisman odds candidate. And most importantly, the Pokes had the inside track to play in the Big 12 Championship game.

Then the game vs. UCF happened. And things went sideways quickly in what turned out to be a stunning 45-3 loss. Gordon had the lowest production of his career in any game in which he had at least nine carries, rushing 12 times for a minuscule 25 yards. 

That said, I think the Pokes are in the perfect bounce-back spot when they visit the Houston Cougars on Saturday.

Houston’s transition to the Big 12 has not been a smooth one. The Cougars are just 2-5 straight up in conference play with the wins coming against a sad-looking Baylor team and West Virginia. They are also scoring just 20.7 points per game against Big 12 foes.

Houston is also coming off a tough loss against an equally bad Cincinnati team. The Bearcats mauled the Cougars’ defense, rushing for over 200 yards. Houston’s defense has been a problem all year, as the team ranks 86th in opponent yards per play and 104th in defensive success rate.

That makes me believe that Gordon, who had rushed for 1,118 yards and 10 scores in Oklahoma State’s last six games alone, gets back on track here.

Oklahoma State still controls its own destiny when it comes to qualifying for the Big 12 title game. So, refocusing and securing a win here is a must. I have the Pokes winning this game by at least a touchdown, so I’ll be laying the 6.5-point chalk in this one.

PICK: Oklahoma State -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Florida vs Missouri prediction

The job Eli Drinkwitz has done with the Missouri Tigers this season has been nothing short of fantastic. And honestly, I didn’t see it coming.

Mizzou now sits at an impressive 8-2 for the season and both losses were good ones, coming against LSU and Georgia. Heck, the Tigers probably played the No. 1 ranked Bulldogs tougher than anyone else this season. Now, Mizzou has its sights set on a New Year’s Six Bowl game.

But that means taking care of business down the stretch. That starts with a matchup against a Florida Gators team that looks toothless on defense these days.

This season has really been a roller coaster for Florida. The Gators started the year 5-2 before a tough stretch, which has seen them lose three in a row against tougher competition while their defense has looked like a sieve. Florida has surrendered 43.3 points per game over their last four contests.

A big reason for all those points is that the Gators are getting trampled by opposing run games. Take away the Vanderbilt game and Florida is giving up a ridiculously-bad 241.4 rushing yards per game. But it’s not just that. The Gators rank 129th in the country in opponent yards per play and 127th in opponent yards per attempt as well.

That should mean good things for Mizzou’s Cody Schrader. The Tigers’ running back has rushed for 1,124 yards at 5.7 yards per carry while finding the end zone 11 times this season. But this Mizzou offense is also balanced with Brady Cook under center. Cook is completing 68% of his passes for 2,731 yards with 17 touchdowns compared to just five picks.

That balance has led to a lot of scoring for the Tigers. Mizzou has put up at least 34 points in six of its last seven games, (the outlier was the Georgia game, duh) and is averaging 36.5 points per game over those six. I’m betting they keep that going in this one, hitting the Over on their team total in the process. 

PICK: Missouri team total Over 34.5 (-111 at FanDuel)

Week 12 odds and upcoming games

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