The big question heading into this year’s Red River Rivalry is whether or not Oklahoma Sooners star QB John Mateer will suit up and play just 17 days removed from thumb surgery.
If you ask the Chipotle tortilla presser in Norman, he’ll tell you Mateer is playing. But if the Sooners staff has other ideas, we’ve got you covered.
I’ve cooked up not one, but two SGPs for this epic rivalry game; one if Mateer plays, and one if he doesn't. Either way, Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning should be running for his life.
And for even more college football picks for the Red River Rivalry, check out my Oklahoma vs. Texas predictions for October 11.
Our best Oklahoma vs Texas SGP for Week 7 - if John Mateer plays
At least one thing will remain the same whether or not John Mateer plays this Saturday. Arch Manning will have to face off against one of, if not the best defense in the country.
The Oklahoma Sooners lead the nation in defensive success rate and sack rate. And we just saw what pressure does to Manning in the Texas Longhorns’ 29-21 loss to Florida last week.
The Gators pressured Arch all game long, forcing him into multiple bad throws, including two interceptions while completing just 55% of his passes.
Now, Arch is still a great athlete and can make things happen with his legs. Well, I think he’s going to have to be here as the Sooners might have him running for his life. He rushed for 37 yards vs. Florida, and I expect something similar here.
If Mateer does play, he’s going to be a game changer. He makes you respect his arm just enough, and if you drop back in coverage, he’ll tuck it and run — particularly in the red zone. He’s scored five times already this season, and he will as he leads Oklahoma to a win in this matchup.
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Our best Oklahoma vs Texas SGP for Week 7 - if John Mateer is out
If Mateer doesn’t play, it will be Michael Hawkins Jr. under center.
He’s made a handful of starts for the Sooners over the last two seasons and relied on emerging wideout Isaiah Sategna. He’s been targeted 25 times, catching 20 of them for 299 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games. I like him to find the end zone again this week.
That said, Oklahoma will certainly commit to running the ball more if Mateer can’t go, and if you combine that with two excellent defenses, the clock should keep moving, and the Red River Shootout may not live up to that moniker this year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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