The Armed Forces Bowl might be the most lopsided bowl game of the season in terms of roster attrition with the Oklahoma Sooners dealing with several transfers and opt-outs while the Navy Midshipmen are pretty much at full strength.
Given the losses the Sooners are dealing with, and the Midshipmen coming off arguably their best performance of the year, my Oklahoma vs. Navy predictions expect Brian Newberry’s team to keep this one close.
With kick-off just hours away at noon ET on ESPN, here are my college football picks for Friday, December 27.
Oklahoma vs Navy prediction and best bet
Who will win Oklahoma vs Navy?
If Oklahoma had the same roster it did when it took down Alabama in its penultimate game of the regular season, I’d feel strongly about the Sooners pulling out the win against Navy. However, Brent Venables’ offense lost several starters to the transfer portal and his defense had its two best players opt out (Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman).
Those losses — and potentially more opt-outs coming on defense — should allow Navy to stay in this game until the end. But, ultimately, I do believe the Sooners can eke out a close win with QB Michael Hawkins Jr.’s legs being the difference. I’ve got Oklahoma winning 24-23.
My best bet
Navy +3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s hard to know how exactly the Oklahoma Sooners will look on Friday when Brent Venables’ team takes the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. On top of losing starting QB Jackson Arnold to Auburn, the team also saw tight end Bauer Sharp and receivers J.J. Hester, Brenen Thompson, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony, and Jalil Farooq hit the transfer portal.
That’s three of their top four leading receivers, and while Anderson, Anthony, and Farooq have dealt with injuries this season, those three combined for 1,921 receiving yards last year. Oklahoma is quite literally down to its sixth and seventh-string receivers. The only proven pass catcher is Deion Burks, who missed the bulk of the season.
Michael Hawkins Jr. — who started several games this year — will be the QB1, but he was shaky at best when on the field for Oklahoma. Hawkins made just one big-time throw with four turnover-worthy plays this season, per PFF.
It doesn’t even end there for OU, with leading rusher Jovantae Barnes left off the depth chart due to injury. With so few of the Sooners’ best players on the field, the Navy Midshipmen should be able to focus on slowing Hawkins’ legs.
The Midshipmen have a respectable defense — 62nd in SP+ and holding opponents to 22.3 points per game — with a star linebacker in Colin Ramos, a top G5 cornerback in Dashaun Peele, and a legitimate NFL talent in safety Rayuan Lane III.
The flip side of this matchup could go even better for Navy with this offense ranked Top 35 in both EPA per rush and dropback and Oklahoma being without Stutsman and Bowman. Nobody wants to play the triple option, especially at the end of the year when their bodies are banged up.
Having to slow it down in a bowl game is about as bad as it gets and Navy has a stud in QB Blake Horvath. He’s fourth in the country in rushing yards among QBs (1,153) and 15-plus-yard runs (17).
Horvath & Co. should create enough splash plays to score while keeping that clock churning and winning the time-of-possession war.
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Oklahoma vs Navy same-game parlay (SGP)
Navy +2.5
Blake Horvath anytime touchdown
Eli Heidenreich 35+ receiving yards
Coming off a dominant performance against Army in which he rushed for 204 yards and two scores, Horvath is poised to find the end zone in Fort Worth.
He’s rushed for 15 touchdowns this season and has scored in eight of his last 10 games.
He’s not the only one who should cause problems for the Sooners. Eli Heidenreich is the Midshipmen's leading receiver and has gone for 35+ receiving yards in nine of 12 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma vs Navy odds
Oklahoma vs Navy live odds
Oklahoma vs Navy opening odds
- Oklahoma vs. Navy spread: Navy +8.5 (-110)
- Oklahoma vs. Navy moneyline: Oklahoma -300, Navy +240
- Oklahoma vs. Navy Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma vs Navy spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma opened as an 8.5-point favorite before the transfer portal and opt-outs depleted its roster, leading most books to now offer Sooners -3.
- Oklahoma is 6-6 ATS this season but Navy is 8-4, having covered in three of its last four.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 46.5 but has since dropped down to 43.5 at most books.
- The Sooners are 6-6 betting the Over this season, but 3-1 in their last four, while the Midshipmen are 8-4 betting the Over.
Oklahoma vs Navy betting trend to know
Navy has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 41% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Navy.
Oklahoma vs Navy game info
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Oklahoma vs Navy latest injuries
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Oklahoma vs Navy weather
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