Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Feeling Under the Weather

Saturday afternoon brings us a fantastic Big 12 Conference matchup when the Oklahoma State Cowboys visit the West Virginia Mountaineers as slim college football odds underdogs at 3:30 p.m. ET. 

Both schools are in the thick of the conference race, and each group is closing in on the six victories required for bowl eligibility. This contest should be a blast to both watch and wager on. 

Please join me as I break down my best free college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma State and West Virginia for Saturday, October 21. 

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia best odds

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia picks and predictions

These schools have played each other 14 times, and until recently, Oklahoma State had reeled off seven consecutive victories until West Virginia snuck past the Cowboys 24-19 last season in Stillwater.

In fact, most of the games in this series have been close, hard-hitting affairs with an average winning margin of 2.6 points. The defenses have stepped up big time, and we’ve also seen the usual miscues teenagers sometimes make when playing in big games.

Saturday’s game in Morgantown should have all the above and much more.

Oklahoma State enters this contest fresh off a pair of home wins over Kansas State and Kansas. The Cowboys scored the football, covered the spread in both contests, and held a high-scoring Kansas team to 32 points. 

The Cowboys' defense wasn’t great, but it was good enough to make the stops needed for the offense to cover the spread. That’s how it’s been for Oklahoma State this season, and as a result, it has a 3-3-0 ATS record but a 2-4 record to the Under.

West Virginia saw a four-game winning streak end on a 49-yard hail mary as time expired to lose to Houston 41-39. They allowed four passing TDs and one rushing TD in their loss to the Cougars — the rushing defense was on point, the passing defense was meh, and the Mountaineers are 4-2-0 ATS this season and 3-3 to the Under.

Neither defense stops the pass very well, and we have two quarterbacks who can sling it a bit, but we’re not too worried about the passing games as weather is going to play a role in this one, with rain and high winds in the forecast throughout the game.

The Cowboys’ rushing game is decent. Sophomore running back Ollie Gordon II has three consecutive +100-yard rushing games with a pair of TDs. QB Allen Bowman doesn’t rush the ball at all, but Oklahoma State has a pair of reserve running backs with 100+ rushing yards, and backup quarterback Gunnar Gundy is fourth on the team in rushing. 

The Cowboys' offensive line is a bit banged up, and Gordon will tangle with a Mountaineers defense allowing 119 rushing yards per game. 

The Mountaineers have a decent rushing attack as well. RB C.J. Donaldson has one rushing TD in each of his last three games, and QB Garrett Greene is the second-leading rusher with five rushing TDs. The West Virginia offensive line is stout, but it faces a Cowboys defense that held Kansas RB Devin Neal and the Jayhawks to 90 rushing yards, and this defense won’t roll over for West Virginia.

Finally, we have two offenses playing in likely horrible conditions, which will hurt the passing game and force the offenses to run the football against defenses that are good on the ground. The last four contests between these two have ended Under the total, and with Mother Nature's assistance, this contest will end Under as well.

My best bet: Under 50.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia same-game parlay

Under 50.5 (-110)

Oklahoma State +3.5 (-110)

West Virginia to win by 1-6 points (+290)

+1,100 at DraftKings

This series might be a bit lopsided in Oklahoma State's favor, but the games have been close, with a winning margin of 2.6 points. DraftKings was nice enough to allow us to make these three selections, and when it hits, it will pay 11/1 or $1100 for a $100 stake.

We’ve already discussed why this one should be low-scoring, but +3.5 points is too many here. The number bucks a 14-game trend — the game opened on the key number three, and we’ll chase some steam and take advantage of this. 

West Virginia to win by 1-6 points seems to work well with the other two selections. Close game, bad weather, and the Mountaineers have a dual-threat QB where Bowman really isn’t, and that will be the difference in the contest. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

Close, hard-hitting games have been the soundtrack to this series, and the odds seem to reflect this.

DraftKings opened with West Virginia at -2.5, but that number quickly rose past key number 3 to -3.5. Laying -3.5 is usually not a good idea, and while I know I sound like a broken record, the average winning margin of 2.6 points in this series is a solid trend. 

The total opened at 50.5, and despite the spread moving, the total hasn’t budged at all. Some shops have 50 points, while others are as low as 49.5. I suspect the total will drop at some point, and we’ll have the best number. 

West Virginia opened at -135 and now resides at -170. The public sucked the value out of this line at DraftKings, but FanDuel has the Mountaineers -164 if that is more to your liking. Oklahoma State converts just 36% of its third-down conversions, and it faces a Mountaineers defense that allows offenses to convert just 28% on third down. 

Something I’m seriously considering is Oklahoma State 1Q moneyline (+124). The West Virginia defense has been stout but allows 5.8 first-quarter points per game. Oklahoma State scores 6.8 points per first quarter, and the +124 is enticing. 

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia betting trend to know

Oklahoma State has hit the Under in 10 of its last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI) West Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of its last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma State vs West Virginia.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia game info

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