It’s a rough stretch to be an Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back. The secondary has become a growing concern this season, with last week’s effort against Purdue offering only modest reassurance.
Unfortunately for Illinois, there are few worse matchups when your pass defense is shaky than facing the high-powered Ohio State Buckeyes.
My Ohio State vs. Illinois predictions expect the Buckeyes to overwhelm the Illini defense—much like Indiana did, and USC to a lesser degree in recent weeks.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
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Ohio State vs Illinois prediction
Ohio State vs Illinois best bet: Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns (+240)
The Illinois Fighting Illini's pass defense began the season as an asset, holding Duke in check better than an average team would in a heralded FBS opener, and then throttling Western Michigan, although the quality of that opponent should be acknowledged.
But then injuries and reality caught up with the Illini. Indiana added 0.775 expected points per dropback against Illinois a few weeks ago. A week later, USC added 0.407 expected points per dropback, according to CFB-graphs.com, a dismal rate considering they dropped back 48 times.
Of course, those are two of the top-three passing offenses, in terms of EPA per dropback, in the country, just trailing Alabama.
But then Purdue fared better last week than Duke had in Week 2 against the Illini. The Boilermakers’ passing EPA ranks No. 53 in the country, while the Blue Devils’ sits at No. 24. Purdue throwing the ball better against Illinois than Duke did should be entirely seen as the Illini falling apart.
Enter Jeremiah Smith, the best receiver in the country and proud owner of six touchdowns in the last four games. Smith has notched at least one score in each of those games. His anytime touchdown prop is at -210, while an additional score offers a +240 payday.
That difference in price is too steep when one score from Smith should be considered rather assured given how atrocious Illinois’s pass defense has become.
Ohio State vs Illinois same-game parlay
As brilliant as Smith is, Carnell Tate may be even better set to exploit Illinois's lackluster passing defense. The Illini rank No. 115 in the country in yards after catch allowed, giving up 4.24 per reception. Meanwhile, the Ohio State Buckeyes rank No. 14 in yards after the catch at 4.82 yards.
Tate leads the way, adding 6.58 yards after each catch. Those yards could lead Tate right into the end zone, and those repeated Illinois failures should set up the Buckeyes for the hefty cover.
Ohio State vs Illinois SGP
- Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns
- Carnell Tate anytime touchdown
- Ohio State -14.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Just Sayin!
Know what should not raise this same-game parlay? Asking Julian Sayin to throw three touchdown passes. Sure, Smith could technically take in a rushing attempt on an end-around, but that is not enough reason to raise this parlay to +1032 from +997 without Sayin’s TDs prop.
Including his yardage prop stems from the yards after catch that Ohio State should revel in all afternoon.
Ohio State vs Illinois SGP
- Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns
- Carnell Tate anytime touchdown
- Ohio State -14.5
- Julian Sayin Over 270.5 passing yards
- Julian Sayin Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Ohio State vs Illinois game predictions
Ohio State vs Illinois moneyline prediction
There may be a temptation to bet on Bret Bielema to engineer an upset of massive impact. He has junked up games in the past. But those were with reliable defenses. Even Illinois’s run defense is a worry, ranking in at least the bottom 40% in all four of its games against Power Four opponents this season.
Without a reliable defense, the Illini are not worthy of any faith in this matchup.
Ohio State vs Illinois spread prediction
The hook on this spread is intentionally set, but it may also tell the whole story you need. This spread opened with Ohio State favored by -16 on Sunday. It almost immediately fell to -14.5, and it has not plummeted to -14.
When a line sticks short of a key number like that, it begins to suggest absolutely no thorough bettor wants to benefit from the hook. Why not? Because even if the numbers say that hook should matter, those thorough bettors all know better.
Ohio State vs Illinois Over/Under prediction
Illinois’s disappointing secondary makes the logic toward an Over relatively clear. All four of the Illini’s games against Power Four teams have gone Over their totals this season and by an average of 14 points.
Ohio State vs Illinois odds
- Spread: Ohio State -14.5 | Illinois +14.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State -650 | Illinois +480
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Ohio State vs Illinois trend to know
Ohio State is 4-0-1 against the spread this season, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 8.7 points across those five games. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Illinois.
How to watch Ohio State vs Illinois
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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