North Carolina vs Wake Forest Odds, Picks and Predictions: Demon Deacons Must Match Tar Heels' Offense

North Carolina and Wake Forest will meet for an ACC matchup on Saturday night. These two teams are going in very different directions at the moment.

The Tar Heels look primed to return to the ACC Championship game, and quarterback Drake Maye has elevated himself into a bonafide Heisman candidate. North Carolina will arrive at this game as winners of five straight, an undefeated ACC record, and just one blemish on the season overall.

Things are much different for Wake Forest, as its 48-21 loss to Louisville seemed to have a lasting effect. The Demon Deacons followed it up with a loss to an NC State team that they should've beaten.

Can Wake Forest get back in the win column, or will North Carolina keep rolling? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Wake Forest vs. North Carolina.

North Carolina vs Wake Forest best odds

North Carolina vs Wake Forest picks and predictions

Reluctantly I'm going back to Wake Forest again here. I did it a week ago in what I viewed as a clear bounce-back spot and was burnt. I will apply the same narrative here but with an added spin and, consequently, a bit of a different bet.

Wake Forest has been a victim of turnovers, and it should be able to clean that up this week. Because of that, the Demon Deacons' offense should be rolling and get its best weapon in the passing game early and often. Handicapping the randomness of turnovers can be tricky, but this has some solid backing.

For starters, Wake Forest has had 11 turnovers over its last two games. Chief among those turnovers have been QB Sam Hartman's six interceptions. Not only is that uncharacteristic of the veteran pass-thrower, but Wake Forest should also be due for positive regression, just by pure virtue of "turnover luck."

Along with that, North Carolina doesn't produce a ton of turnovers. The Tar Heels had a very accurate reputation as a defensive sieve who score many points and rank third to last in the ACC in turnovers gained. Playing a team that isn't known for producing turnovers, unlike their previous two opponents (NC State and Louisville), is a massive plus for Wake.

I believe Wake Forest is going to have plenty of passing success. The Tar Heels' defense is last in the ACC in passing plays over 10+ yards, 20+ yards, and 30+ yards. They don't give up a ton of big plays, but they give up chunk plays. That's music to the ears of Hartman, who is looking to get rolling again along with wide receiver AT Perry.

Speaking of Perry, that's who we'll be placing this wager on. He feasts in those 10-yard positions where North Carolina gives up a ton. The 6'5 wideout is a matchup problem for every team he faces. He's coming off a 12-reception, 159-yard game in the loss to NC State and is third in the ACC among receivers in 10+ yard receptions. He thrives best in those intermediate pass positions, where North Carolina struggles the most. That's an extreme edge that could be difficult for the Tar Heels to overcome.

Everything is lining up in this one for Perry to have a massive day. Wake Forest doesn't appear to have the tools on defense to stop North Carolina with any regularity. Because of that, the Demon Deacons will have to keep passing and should be able to sustain productive drives.

As long as they do that, this number is far too low for Perry.

My best bet: AT Perry Over 80.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

North Carolina vs Wake Forest spread analysis

The spread for this game opened up with Wake Forest as 3-point favorites at home. Since then, it's jumped up in a few places to -4. According to our Covers Consensus page, the betting for this game is close to even, as North Carolina is currently receiving 54% of picks.

When a one-loss Top 15 opponent opens up as an underdog, it causes an eyebrow raise. However, it is the right move here. It's not that I envision the Wake Forest defense stopping North Carolina a ton; it's more that I don't see the Demon Deacons getting stopped much on the other side of the ball.

Any points feel like too many, and I have a pretty solid lean to Wake Forest here. With so much scoring expected, I see no reason to bet on this game pregame. Instead, I'll look for some plus money on the Deacons for a live bet.

North Carolina vs Wake Forest Over/Under analysis

Any play here has to be on the Over. I have yet to mention the North Carolina offense enough, but it has plenty of weapons. Of course, you know about Maye, who is quickly surging up the Heisman odds boards, but how about the players around him? Josh Downs and Antoine Green are as good as any receivers in the ACC.

Yes, North Carolina has the dubious distinction of being last in the ACC in the fewest passing plays of 10 yards or more allowed, but Wake Forest is right behind. Just like I highlighted Perry being able to take advantage of that aspect, this duo should be able to do the same. Neither of these teams is stopping the other.

I've grabbed the total at 71.5 and would take it up to 73.5. Another Over in this matchup would follow some pretty strong trends between the two. The most notable is that Wake Forest scores points and gives them up when they travel. Additionally, nine of the last 13 Demon Deacon road games have gone Over.

There may be a desire to fade the trendy public pick of an easy Over here, but it's hard to justify.

North Carolina vs Wake Forest betting trend to know

The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two programs. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest.

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