Missouri vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Are No Scrubs

After throwing multiple touchdown passes in each of his first eight games this year, Hendon Hooker failed to find the end zone with either his arm or his legs against Georgia last weekend. Now, he will try to lead the Volunteers back into the win column against Missouri at home in order to get one step closer to bowl eligibility.

The Volunteers are heavily favored, as they should be given their place in the standings. But are the Tigers not getting enough respect in this matchup? We break that down in our college football picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Tennessee on November 12.

Missouri vs Tennessee best odds

Missouri vs Tennessee picks and predictions

One week was all Tennessee could manage atop the AP rankings, as the Vols came crashing back to Earth in a 27-13 loss at Georgia last weekend. Tennessee allowed three unanswered touchdowns to the Bulldogs and didn’t score a touchdown of its own until the final five minutes of the game. 

The Vols converted just twice in 14 attempts, while the Bulldogs were able to extend drives with seven conversions in 12 attempts. Tennessee also couldn’t get their ground game going, with Jaylen Wright gaining just 69 yards on 21 carries. It didn’t help that Hooker was sacked six times on the day. That’s one more sack than what Missouri registered on Will Levis last week in its 21-17 defeat to Kentucky.

The Tigers have had terrific success getting to the quarterback this season, ranking 21st as they’re averaging a sack per every 13 pass attempts. Their hybrid 2-4-5 defense causes real problems for offensive lines, with defensive backs often lining up around two down linemen and creating confusion as to who is actually coming.

If only Missouri could get the offensive side of the ball rolling. The Tigers haven’t topped 23 points in any of their last six games, a big reason they were unable to capitalize last week against Kentucky. Missouri struggles to push the ball downfield in the passing game, which is where its offense could hurt the Vols the most. Missouri ranks 102nd in completions for 10 or more yards, and quarterback Brady Cook has thrown just 11 passes for 30 or more yards this season.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Tigers have been competitive in nearly every SEC game this season. Their defense is stout, holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry and allowing just 32.2% of third downs to be converted. However, they haven't faced an offense with the explosiveness possessed by the Vols, nor have they faced a quarterback the caliber of Hooker.

I’m torn on the spread in this game. I can see the Tigers keeping it close in a losing effort, as they’ve done much of the season. However, I can also see the Vols rolling them on Senior Day as they come into the game pissed off after last week’s defeat.

Missouri isn’t a team that is likely to thrive in a shootout, nor are the Tigers going to be able to do well if they’re forced to throw the ball. That’s why I like the first half spread much more.

Getting 11 points is very generous and should be a number Missouri can manage. It also allows you to protect against a scenario of the second half possibly getting out of hand. Take the points before halftime as your best bet.

My best bet: Missouri +11 first half (-106 at FanDuel)

Missouri vs Tennessee spread analysis

The Tigers need two wins in their final three to reach bowl eligibility. That’s going to be tricky with both Tennessee and Arkansas still on their schedule. They’ve won just once in four road games this season, a 23-10 victory over South Carolina, and have just two wins in six conference games.

The Volunteers lost for the first time a week ago but have been dominant on offense this season. They’ve recorded wins over five ranked opponents and have won eight straight games at home. However, they’ve split the last 10 games with the Tigers and have gone just 2-3 in Neyland Stadium against them in that span.

The line has remained fairly steady since opening, with a few places offering 21.5 points to the Tigers to start before coming down a full point. The Vols have covered in five of the last seven meetings, all as favorites. 

Missouri vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

Since opening at 56.5, the total hasn’t moved a whole lot. That’s likely due to Missouri’s poor offensive showings at times this season, especially in the second half of games. The Under has hit in Missouri’s last five games after a defeat, and in its last seven games on the road as well.

As for the Vols, eight of Tennessee’s last nine home games have resulted in the Over, as have seven of its eight games following a defeat. The Vols have also seen the Over be quite profitable in their games against Missouri, with the Under cashing just once.

Missouri vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after a defeat. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Tennessee.

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