Missouri vs Kentucky Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tigers and Wildcats Sharpen Their Claws

You want fireworks? Missouri and Kentucky is the game for you. But, with plenty of back-and-forth scoring, will either side be able to pull away? Find out where our college football picks think your best bet is.

Jeremy Jones - Betting Analyst at Covers
Jeremy Jones • Betting Analyst
Oct 13, 2023 • 14:39 ET • 4 min read
Brady Cook NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two SEC East contenders coming off their first losses of the season look for redemption on Saturday night in Lexington as the Missouri Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats meet, with massive implications for the success of their respective seasons at stake. 

The Tigers look to shake off a painful shootout loss to the LSU Tigers, while the Wildcats got put in their place by the Georgia Bulldogs in a humbling beatdown. Which SEC East team will bounce back from their first loss and cover the spread in the college football odds

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Kentucky at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY on Saturday, October 14. 

Missouri vs Kentucky best odds

Missouri vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Wildcats have dominated this series in the Mark Stoops era, winning seven of the last eight matchups. That’s despite only being favored in three of those eight contests. Last season, the Cats won 21-17 as 1-point underdogs on the road. 

Missouri is returning an extremely similar team from that game, with Brady Cook at quarterback and Luther Burden at wide receiver. That duo has been deadly this season, as Cook has 1,879 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to only two picks. He also has three rushing touchdowns. Burden has 54 catches for 793 yards and five touchdowns this year. 

However, the Tigers could very likely be without lead running back Cody Schrader due to a quad injury. He has 577 yards and six touchdowns on 94 carries this season and ran for 65 yards in this matchup last season. He would be a big loss in a matchup against one of the best run defenses in the country.

The Wildcats rank 13th in the nation allowing only 92.0 rushing yards per game. They will have an excellent opportunity to turn the Tigers into a one-dimensional team on offense. The problem is that they have been vulnerable in defending the pass. 

Kentucky allows 257.0 passing yards per game (103rd) and allow opponents to convert 44.0% of third downs (106th). The Tigers rank 12th in passing yards per game (322.2), 15th in completion percentage (71.1%), and 10th in pass efficiency. The Bulldogs were able to throw it at will last week against the Wildcats without much of a run game. 

The Kentucky defense and special teams have scored four touchdowns this season and forced 10 turnovers. The combination of aggressive defense with their own big play potential on offense should create a high-scoring affair. 51 points should be no problem here. 

My best betOver 50 (-110 at Caesars)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Missouri vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Over 50.5

Cook Over 267.5 pass yds

Cook Over 0.5 INTs

Ray Davis Over 17.5 rec yds

I feel pretty confident in a solid game script for this game, which makes it easier for us to find a strong same-game parlay. 

Starting with the Over, I believe it will hit because of Missouri’s success in the passing game. Brady Cook averages over 300 passing yards per game and we get his number at 267.5. Carson Beck had 389 yards last week against the Cats. 

On that same note, though, the one-dimensional passing game against an aggressive defense will lead to at least one turnover. Cook will likely throw an interception with Maxwell Hairston, who has four interceptions this season, guarding Luther Burden, Cook’s favorite target. 

Finally, as we look to the Kentucky side of things, we have to include the electric Ray Davis at running back. However, we’re going to add his receiving total here instead of rushing. Davis has gone Over 17.5 receiving yards in three games this season and the Tigers are very susceptible allowing backs to catch balls out of the backfield. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Missouri vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

This game will be a bit of a shootout, and much like last week with Missouri against LSU, even a team winning the whole game can lose ground late. In this situation, I would lean on the Wildcats to be that team that comes out on top in the end. 

Kentucky will have a much better run game and unless the passing game is absolutely dreadful, its balance will outlast the one-dimensional Tigers. Missouri will be without one of its top defensive backs in Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and that should allow the big play threats of Dane Key and Barion Brown to find plenty of openings. 

The Tigers are a very good red-zone offense with 18 touchdowns and six field goals in 25 attempts. The Wildcats have allowed 12 touchdowns and two field goals in 18 red-zone attempts. This should help the Over, as we will likely see sixes instead of threes when the Tigers get close to the endzone. 

Missouri vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Missouri has hit the Over in eight of its last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Kentucky.

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Missouri vs Kentucky game info

Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network

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