The Missouri State Bears travel to Las Cruces for a Wednesday night clash with the New Mexico State Aggies in Week 9.
Both teams enter at 3-3, setting the stage for a tight matchup, with the Bears currently favored by 1.5 points on the road.
I’m targeting NMSU quarterback Logan Fife’s passing yardage prop with my Missouri State vs. New Mexico State predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, October 22.
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Missouri State vs New Mexico State prediction
Missouri State vs New Mexico State best bet: Logan Fife Under 263.5 passing yards (-114)
One storyline from the New Mexico State Aggies’ last two games is the emergence of the running game. After posting an abysmal 39.5 rushing yards per game in their first four contests (which drops to 26.7 if you exclude the FCS game), the Aggies have accumulated 241 yards and three scores on the ground in their first two conference games.
The offense erred extremely pass-happy to start the year, but that should balance out now that running back Kadarius Calloway and the ground game have gotten going. That leads us to quarterback Logan Fife’s passing yardage prop, which is set at 263.5.
This line is high for two reasons — NMSU has a high pass rate (58.1%), and the Missouri State Bears grade out poorly against the pass (121st in EPA per pass, 125th in passing success rate allowed). I’ve explained the former, and the latter is inflated due to matchups against USC (second in EPA per pass), SMU (24th), and Western Kentucky (seventh in pass rate).
The Bears have been effective otherwise. Fife has gone Under this number in five of his six outings, so here’s betting on another.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State same-game parlay
I also fancy Fife’s passing yardage Under because Missouri State plays at a snail’s pace, posting the fewest snaps per minute of any team in the country. That should also lead to a lower-scoring game against a defensively stout NMSU team (26th in EPA per play) that labors on offense (119th).
The Aggies dominated Sam Houston (37-10) and outgained Liberty (+95 in total yardage) in CUSA play, whereas Missouri State was outgained by Western Kentucky (-62) and lowly Middle Tennessee State (-5). Give me the Aggies at home.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State SGP
- Logan Fife Under 263.5 passing yards
- Under 51.5
- New Mexico State +1.5
Our deep-ball SGP: It's all Aggies
Donovan Faupel has double the targets (45) of any other NMSU wide receiver and has found the end zone twice this season, so his anytime touchdown prop correlates nicely with an Aggies cover.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State SGP
- Logan Fife Under 263.5 passing yards
- Under 51.5
- New Mexico State +1.5
- Donovan Faupel anytime touchdown
Missouri State vs New Mexico State game predictions
Missouri State vs New Mexico State moneyline prediction
New Mexico State will win this game at home, as it's been the more impressive squad since C-USA play began.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State spread prediction
New Mexico State will cover the spread against a Missouri State team with a poor defense (128th in EPA per play) and an offense that struggles to move the ball consistently (117th in success rate).
Missouri State vs New Mexico State Over/Under prediction
These are two of the worst blocking teams in the country (both rank bottom two in stuff rate), and Missouri State plays at the slowest pace in the country, so this game will stay Under the total.
Missouri State vs New Mexico State odds
- Spread: Missouri State -1.5 | New Mexico State +1.5
- Moneyline: Missouri State -118 | New Mexico State +100
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Missouri State vs New Mexico State trend to know
Logan Fife has thrown for fewer than 263.5 passing yards in five of six games. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri State vs New Mexico State.
How to watch Missouri State vs New Mexico State
| Location | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date | Wednesday, October 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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