Every Thanksgiving weekend, football fans are treated to one of the greatest — and wildest — rivalries in the sport: the Egg Bowl.
The No. 6 Mississippi Rebels are looking to advance to 11-1 as they move toward the College Football Playoff, whereas the Mississippi State Bulldogs need one more win to reach bowl eligibility.
Read on for my early spread and total college football picks and predictions for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State on Friday, November 28.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Mississippi vs Mississippi State spread pick: Mississippi State +7.5
The hoopla surrounding Lane Kiffin’s future with the Mississippi Rebels is impossible for his team to ignore. An announcement about his future — widely expected to be news that he’s leaving for LSU — is expected a day after the conclusion of the regular season.
That puts his players in an unenviable position, where they’re fighting for their playoff lives in a rivalry game on a Holiday weekend, despite their performance on the field being a secondary storyline. Pretending like this shouldn’t be factored into the handicap is fantasy.
The Rebels have more flaws than their 10-1 record would indicate. They barely got past both Kentucky and Arkansas earlier in the year, and a costly Razorbacks fumble in the waning seconds altered the narrative of Mississippi’s season.
The lone impressive win on the resume is Oklahoma, and that’s a game where the Rebs lost the yards per play battle 5.0 to 6.0.
The Rebs have a faulty run defense (120th in EPA per rush) and are soft up front (113th in line yards, 107th in stuff rate). The Mississippi State Bulldogs will move the ball and are 5-1 ATS at home.
Early Mississippi vs Mississippi State total pick: Under 62.5
The Under has been the best bet in recent Egg Bowls, cashing in eight straight. With a high total of 62.5 on the board, why not look for yet another?
Doing so requires a leap of faith as both teams are better offensively than defensively. Still, that was the case last year, and it resulted in a 26-14 Mississippi win that fell 23.5 points short of the total. Neither side has reached 400 total yards in this matchup since 2021.
Mississippi should find room to run the ball against State’s forgiving rush defense (130th in rushing success rate). That will help keep the clock moving, and State has been decent at stopping big plays (33rd in rushing explosiveness, that despite the Ahmad Hardy meltdown), so drives might need to be methodical.
The same thing can be said when the Bulldogs have the ball. Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth should find some room on the ground and keep the clock ticking. Both teams play at a very fast pace (both are Top 11 in snaps per minute), but the clock should be ticking regardless due to successful rush attempts.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State odds
- Mississippi vs. Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State +7.5
- Mississippi vs. Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi -280, Mississippi State +225
- Mississippi vs. Mississippi State Over/Under: 62.5
How to watch Mississippi vs Mississippi State
- Mississippi vs. Mississippi State matchup
- Date: Friday, November 28, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Starkville, MS
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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