Alabama vs Michigan Props for Rose Bowl: Changing of the Tide

Prop bet #1: Wolverines win early

Some may worry the trend about to be discussed was built against inferior competition, and no one can deny Michigan played some poor teams this season. But, the Wolverines could only play the teams on the schedule, and their ability to focus out of the gates against those teams should translate on New Year’s Day.

Furthermore, this trend also applies to a narrowed view, focusing just on the latter half of Michigan’s season, somewhat tougher foes.

The Wolverines turn their opening script into a score more often than not. Their first drive resulted in a touchdown six times this season, with two more games opening with Michigan field goals. Scoring on your first possession eight out of 13 times warrants notice; it may seem a low rate to endorse a prop bet but realize that is not the only way this play can win.

The Wolverines scored on at least one of their first two possessions against every team except Indiana, Penn State, and Ohio State. And on each of those three worries, Michigan followed up with touchdowns on both its third and fourth possessions. Again, that is a rather promising early start, including against the two best teams the Wolverines have played.

For that matter, let’s mention that Michigan scored 10 points on its first two drives against Iowa’s defense in the Big Ten championship game.

Meanwhile, Alabama turned its opening script into a touchdown just three times against 12 FBS opponents. Only one of those nine failures was a field goal, making for eight scoreless opening Tide possessions.

Alabama failed to score on both its first possessions in four games, including against the questionable defenses of Mississippi State, Arkansas and Tennessee. In total, seven of 12 FBS opponents cracked the scoreboard before the Tide did this season.

To some extent, that is not as terrible as it seems. Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees calls each possession with the entire game in mind, willing to learn about the opposing defense early to exploit it later, but against Michigan, that likely will mean the Wolverines get on the board first on Monday.

Rose Bowl prop: Michigan to score first (-117 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Michigan early and often

Only Iowa kept the Wolverines below 14 first-half points this season, giving up 10 points on Michigan’s first two drives and then forcing four punts leading into halftime.

As good as the Tide defense is, it is hardly better than the Hawkeyes’. Just to put some quick numbers behind that assertion: opponent-adjusted expected points added per snap ranks Alabama’s defense at No. 12 in the country and Iowa’s at No. 14, per cfb-graphs.com.

Michigan has averaged 16.2 points per first half in its last five games, a sample size chosen specifically because the opponents were of decent quality. In that stretch, the Wolverines scored two touchdowns on Ohio State (No. 5 EPA defense) and on Penn State (No. 4), as well as 23 against Maryland (No. 44).

Yet, suggesting Michigan will tally 11 or more in the first half is available at plus odds. That is mispriced, simply enough.

Rose Bowl prop: Michigan first-half team total Over 10.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Jalen Milroe explosiveness

Alabama’s offense plods until it very much doesn’t. The Tide have rattled off 24 explosive touchdowns in 12 games against FBS opponents, including 16 in its last seven games, another sample size chosen to emphasize pertinent quality. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has given up just eight explosive touchdowns against FBS foes this season, five of which came against Texas, Tennessee, and LSU.

Michigan is a better team than any of those three, but its offense is far less explosive. The Wolverines prefer to establish a lead early and grind down a game late. It has worked, beating Penn State 24-15 best underscoring that as you or I could have quarterbacked Michigan in that second half.

That version of complementary football fits every ounce of these three props. The Wolverines emphasize an early lead, usually getting one with two touchdowns in the first half, and then they become conservative on offense.

Sometimes that covers up a surprising big play from the opponent, things like Rutgers scoring from 69 yards, Nebraska from 74, and Indiana from 44.

Alabama won’t blink at that possibility. Of those 24 explosive touchdowns this season, only one did not involve quarterback Jalen Milroe. He dinks and checks down until he explodes deep via his legs or his arm.

Milroe has authored nine touchdowns of 40 yards or longer this season, a length Michigan has given up four times while matching itself only four times offensively.

The Wolverines will test Alabama’s rush defense — that matchup will likely determine much of this game — but they will struggle to go over the top of the Tide, mostly because Michigan has struggled in that regard all year while Alabama has kept all but the most explosive offenses in check.

Add in the likelihood of the Tide playing from behind in the Rose Bowl, and a big-play touchdown from Milroe makes too much sense not to bet on.

Rose Bowl prop: Longest touchdown: Alabama (-115 at DraftKings)