Michigan State vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Penn is Mightier

The No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions host the Michigan State Spartans Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium.

It’s an important game for both teams, too, and a matchup that carries different meanings. Penn State is aiming for a 10-win season with a victory, while looking to win a seventh game inside the Big Ten. It is likely to lock up a prestigious bowl appearance with a victory.

For Michigan State, it’s trying to grab a sixth win, or it will be watching bowl season on the couch. 

Will Penn State get to double digits in victories, or will Michigan State win and punch its ticket for bowl season? We’ll discuss in our college football picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Penn State on Saturday, November 26.

Michigan State vs Penn State best odds

Michigan State vs Penn State picks and predictions

The one thing which really tailed off for Michigan State this season has been the run game. Sparty lost bruising and talented tailback Kenneth Walker III to the pro ranks, and he is ripping it up with the Seattle Seahawks. The Spartans were a top rushing team in 2021, but are just No. 105 in rushing this season with 121.2 yards per game this season.

MSU’s Payton Thorne has been a steadying force, completing 63.4% of his pass attempts for 2,450 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Yes, perhaps he could limit the mistakes a little more, but it’s been a decent season since he has mostly lost the run game. 

It’s been a mish-mash in the backfield: RB Jalen Berger is the best of the lot with 669 yards and six scores. Jarek Broussard transferred in from Colorado, but he has just 292 yards and three scores. Elijah Collins has 285 yards and six scores, as Berger, Broussard, and Collins have each averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry. But neither has been close to being a home-run hitter like KW3 was.

In the pass game, WR Keon Coleman is the go-to guy for Sparty, racking up 50 grabs for 707 yards and seven scores, good for 14.1 yards per reception. WR Jayden Reed is a strong performer, too, going for 59 grabs, 600 yards, and five scores, while WR Tre Mosley has been a serviceable tertiary option.

The Penn State offense should be able to solve the Michigan State defense rather easily. Sparty has bled out on defense, conceding 417.1 total yards per game to rank No. 103 in the nation, while coughing up 180.3 rushing yards per outing, or No. 100 in the land. Those numbers have Nittany Lions RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton licking their chops. Singleton leads the team with 854 yards and 10 scores, with Allen right behind at 748 rushing yards and nine scores.

QB Sean Clifford is an experienced signal caller giving the Lions a nice, balanced attack, and leading them to 35.9 PPG, which ranks No. 19 overall. This team will roll up big offensive numbers — especially in the run game — against the Michigan State D, and Penn State has a strong defense to limit the visitors’ damage.

Despite all of the stats, and common sense, I still like Michigan State to come out playing with desperation, trying to keep its season alive. Sparty is trying to get to a bowl, and must win. Desperation is a good thing to bet upon, normally, and I think Michigan State keeps it close in the first half. But Penn State is rolling along, and MSU blew it at home last week against Indiana. Momentum is on the side of the Nittany Lions, and they finish up strong.

My best bet: Penn State -19 (-110 at BetMGM)

Michigan State vs Penn State spread analysis

Michigan State might have fumbled away its bowl opportunity with a 39-31 overtime loss at home against Indiana. The offense has been better lately, but it hasn’t mattered at the betting window, as the Spartans are 1-3 ATS in the past four games overall, while going 2-7 ATS in the previous nine outings.

Penn State has been playing really good football lately, winning four of the past five games overall, while cashing in five in a row. The offense has been humming, going for 30 or more points in each of the five outings, while the defense has allowed just 8.0 PPG during the previous three contests. That’s a recipe for winning, and winning a lot.

Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight games inside the Big Ten, while cashing in just one of the previous six against winning teams, and one of the past six on the road, too. That’s ugly.

On the flip side, Penn State has cashed in five in a row, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven at Beaver Stadium. When the weather gets uglier, Penn State football seems to get prettier.

Michigan State vs Penn State Over/Under analysis

Michigan State has gone for 23 or more points in three consecutive games, cashing the Over in each of the previous two contests. This is a defense that allowed a middling Indiana team to drop 39 points on it last week in East Lansing. That’s unacceptable, especially in a must-win game. But it’s completely acceptable for those looking at an Over play.

The good news for Over bettors is that it should be a fast track at Beaver Stadium. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-50s and no chance of precipitation, which is a departure from what we saw in select spots in the Big Ten earlier in the month.

The Over is on a 5-1 roll in the past six games for Penn State, as it is playing with a ton of confidence on offense, especially in the run game. And with Michigan State’s inability to stop the run, we could see the taillights of Nittany Lions players frequently on Saturday afternoon.

Michigan State vs Penn State betting trend to know

The favorite has cashed in eight of the past 11 meetings in this series, with the Over going 9-3 in the previous 12 meetings overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Penn State.

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