The No. 4 Michigan Wolverines host in-state rival Michigan State on Saturday, October 29, and will look to halt a two-game win streak in the series by the 3-4 Spartans.
The Wolverines are off to a 7-0 start for a second consecutive season and the third time in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s tenure, while Michigan State just got back in the win column with a double-overtime victory over Wisconsin on Oct. 15 after dropping four straight.
One of six remaining undefeated teams in the country, Michigan is a 23-point college football odds favorite, but recent history sides with the Spartans, who have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.
Can the Spartans pull off an unthinkable upset in the Big House amid an up-and-down season? Below are our best college football picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Michigan State vs Michigan best odds
Michigan State vs Michigan picks and predictions
A central part of Michigan’s success this year has been the play of Blake Corum, a Heisman Trophy candidate who is tied for the most rushing touchdowns (13) in the country and ranks seventh in total rushing yards (901).
With a 6.2 yards-per-carry average, Corum is the main reason Michigan ranks eighth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Though, backup Donovan Edwards has been impressive, too, with 307 yards on 43 carries (7.1 YPC) and four rushing scores.
In a dominant win over then-No. 10 Penn State, Edwards ran for a career-high 173 yards and added two rushing touchdowns in a 41-17 blowout, but that didn’t subtract from Corum’s production.
The junior running back still tallied 166 yards on 28 attempts with two rushing scores against a Penn State defense that had not allowed better than a 3.8 yards-per-carry average or more than 119 rushing yards in any game up to that point in the season.
The Wolverines now face a run-stop unit worse than Penn State’s, with the Spartans surrendering 153.3 yards per contest, fourth most in the Big Ten.
Michigan State allowed Minnesota — ranked 15th in the FBS in rushing yards per game — to run for 240 yards and five yards per carry, while Maryland’s middling rushing attack achieved the same yards-per-carry average in a 27-13 victory, and Ohio State racked up 5.2 yards per attempt in a 49-20 win. Wisconsin, whose run game is a shell of its former self, managed 3.9 yards per carry but also found paydirt with two rushing scores.
Corum has topped 120 rushing yards in his last four games, all against Big Ten opponents, and hit a career-high with 243 yards against Maryland back in Week 4.
He’s also 99 yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Edwards may take away some carries after exploding for a career night against Penn State, but Corum will be the primary focus on offense and hit the Over on 120 rushing yards.
My best bet: Blake Corum Over 120.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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Michigan State vs Michigan spread analysis
Last season, the Wolverines owned a 7-0 record ahead of their annual matchup with Michigan State and saw their win streak shattered with a 37-33 road loss to a then-No. 8 Spartans squad.
Michigan bounced back and won the remainder of its games on the way to earning a College Football Playoff berth. It’s looking to improve upon last year’s finish, in which the Wolverines fell 34-11 to Georgia in the national semifinal.
The Spartans have seemingly had Michigan’s number over the past decade, winning three of the last five and six of the last 10, but this Spartans team is sputtering right now.
The defense has had issues all around, but showed some life in the win over Wisconsin, which was aided by two takeaways Michigan State turned into touchdowns.
However, Michigan has turned the ball over four times this season and hasn’t committed more than one turnover in a game. Michigan State is 0-4 this season when it does not force multiple takeaways.
The Spartans are a massive 23-point underdog, which is a bit steep considering the team’s recent history against Michigan. The Wolverines did beat Michigan State, 44-10, in Ann Arbor back in 2019, but aside from that romp, they have won by an average margin of 8.3 points in their last three victories over their nemesis.
The Spartans are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 against Michigan and 2-1 ATS in their last three matchups. But this season, Michigan State is 2-4-1 ATS and 0-2 ATS as the away team.
The Wolverines are 4-3 ATS this season and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, but 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week.
The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, and the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Michigan, plus 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.
Michigan State vs Michigan Over/Under analysis
For all the issues Michigan State has with its defense, the offense hasn’t been much better. The Spartans rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten in passing yards per game (242.9) and are third to last in rushing yards per contest (106.1), while they’re 95th in college football in total yards of offense per outing.
Michigan boasts one of the best offenses in college football, and its defense is even better. The Wolverines rank fifth in FBS in yards surrendered (250) and give up just 164.1 passing yards per game as well as 85.9 rushing yards per contest, both fifth fewest in college football. They rank third in the country in points allowed (12.1).
This game should be dominated by the Wolverines, who are hungry to avenge back-to-back losses to the Spartans.
The total opened at 54.5 at most sportsbooks and has moved only a half-point in favor of the Over as of writing.
The Under is 5-2 in Michigan State’s last seven road games, and it’s 6-2 in Michigan’s last eight games overall, plus 10-4 in the Wolverine’s last 14 home games.
The Over is 2-1 in the last three between Michigan and Michigan State, but it’s 5-5 in the last 10 in this series.
The Over is also 15-7-1 in Michigan’s last 23 games following a bye week, and it’s 18-5 in Michigan State’s last 23 games coming off of rest.
Michigan State vs Michigan betting trend to know
The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Michigan State vs Michigan game info
|Location:||Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
|Date:||Saturday, October 29, 2022|
|Kickoff:||7:30 p.m. ET|
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