The Maryland Terrapins are coming off arguably the toughest season of the Mike Locksley era, and the 2026 win total reflects just how far the bar has been lowered for a program trying to climb back to respectability in a brutal Big Ten.
Maryland stumbled to a 4-8 mark in 2025, including a brutal 1-8 showing in conference play. With the win total sitting near its lowest mark in recent memory, the question isn't whether the Terrapins will compete for the Big Ten title: it's whether they can simply find enough winnable games to clear a modest number.
Here's a look at the recent history of Maryland win totals, along with predictions on whether the Terrapins will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 5.5:
Maryland 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 5.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 5.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 5.5 | ⚪ |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Maryland returns a nation-high 14 starters and rank No. 2 in Bill Connelly’s and Phil Steele’s experience metrics. I bet over 4.5 wins earlier this off-season but think 5.5 is a bit much.
Rob Paul
Maryland’s schedule is among the softest in the conference – No. 114 in SOS (.477) – and it’s No. 2 nationally in returning production (71%).
Playing a lot of young players last year should pay off for Mike Locksley, especially with QB Malik Washington. Washington looked like a future NFL QB as a freshman with his arm talent, and if he cuts down on turnovers, he could be one of the best QBs in the Big Ten. He also has an experienced offensive line and major upgrades at wide receiver with Na’eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (Old Dominion) and Chris Durr Jr. (Wyoming).
The defense was solid last year, and should be even better this year with five-star recruit Zion Elee joining last year’s breakout frosh Sidney Stewart and Zahir Mathis on the defensive line. And the back seven isn’t lacking for all-conference talent with Daniel Wingate, Dontay Joyner, and Jamare Glasker.
Colby Marchio
Coming off a season that featured three one possession losses, I really like the idea of this team starting the year 4-0, as they should be favored in each of those games.
That would leave us needing just two more wins at plus money to cash the ticket. So where do those wins come from? Somewhere between Nebraska, Rutgers, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Penn State.
Phil Steele is calling for this team to make a bowl game, so let’s root for some wins!
Maryland win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Maryland historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.5 | +105 | -125 | 4 | Under |
| 2024 | 6.5 | +125 | -150 | 4 | Under |
| 2023 | 7.5 | +110 | -130 | 7 | Under |
| 2022 | 6 | -120 | +100 | 7 | Over |
| 2021 | 5.5 | -145 | +120 | 6 | Over |
| 2019 | 3.5 | -145 | +125 | 3 | Under |
| 2008 | 7 | NA | NA | 7 | Push |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A program trending the wrong way: Maryland's win total has fallen in three straight years (7.5 in 2023, 6.5 in 2024, 4.5 in 2025), and the Terrapins have gone Under in each of those seasons. That streak has eroded confidence in the program heading into 2026.
- 1-8 in Big Ten play is about as bad as it gets: Maryland's 2025 conference record was its worst since joining the Big Ten, and it's a major reason the win total has dropped all the way to 5.5 for 2026 (the program's lowest total in this dataset outside of 2019).
- A genuine 50/50 number: At 5.5 with the Over priced at +105, the market is essentially flat on Maryland's outlook. It's not the long-shot Under play the 2025 and 2024 numbers represented, but not a vote of confidence either.
How Maryland win totals are priced
Back-to-back four-win seasons haven't instilled much confidence in Maryland's football program, and the 5.5 win total for 2026 might actually feel too high to some.
Watching a 4-0 start vaporized by eight consecutive losses is certainly one way to feel disenfranchised, and the 2026 Big Ten schedule won't offer much comfort to fans still coping with last year's epic collapse. There just aren't many easy Ws on the ledger for the Terrapins, even with traditional powers like Virginia Tech and Penn State also coming off rough seasons.
The Terrapins carry a Big Ten win total of 3.5 into the 2026 regular season, with the Over at +115 and the Under at -136.
Maryland's 1-8 Big Ten record in 2025 was the program's worst conference showing since joining the league in 2014.
Maryland win total FAQs
Will Maryland make the CFP?
Maryland is a near-impossible long shot to reach the College Football Playoff, priced at +6000.
What is Maryland's projected win total?
The Terrapins' win total sits at 5.5 for 2026, with the Over at +105 and the Under at -125.
Who is Maryland's starting QB?
Malik Washington will look to take a step forward as the Terrapins' QB1 in 2026. He threw for 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman.
What is the most notable Maryland win total trend?
Maryland has gone Under its win total in three straight seasons (2023, 2024, 2025), with the total itself dropping each year as the market has lost confidence in the program.
What's the best bet for Maryland this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the smart play is on the OVER 5.5 wins, though Brad Powers isn't quite ready to take the plunge at that number.
