The Michigan State Spartans are coming off a dreadful season, and the 2026 win total reflects a program still searching for its footing after a brutal 1-8 finish in Big Ten play.
Michigan State stumbled to a 4-8 overall record in 2025, missing its win total for the third time in four years. With the 2026 number set at its lowest mark since Sports Odds History began tracking win total markets, the question is whether the Spartans can simply find enough winnable games to clear a bar that's been lowered considerably.
Here's a look at the recent history of Michigan State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Spartans will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 4.5:
Michigan State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 4.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 4.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Jacob Cotsonika | Michigan State Spartans on SI | OVER 4.5 | 🟡 |
| Justin Thind | SpartanTailgate (247Sports) | OVER 4.5 | 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Most people love the Pat Fitzgerald hire. I don’t. Fitzgerald was 4-20 his last two years at Northwestern. My power ratings project Michigan State to be underdogs in each of their last 10 games.
Rob Paul
Among the least inspiring hires of this past coaching cycle was Michigan State bringing Pat Fitzgerald back to the Big Ten. In three of his final four seasons leading Northwestern, the Wildcats failed to win more than three games - Fitzgerald has a .311 winning percentage since 2019.
The calling card for his final teams in Evanston was their lack of offense, and it’s not like he’s inheriting a whole lot in East Lansing. Alessio Milivojevic ranked outside the top 75 nationally in QBR last season (57.8). And while transfer additions like Ben Murawski and Cam Edward from UConn should make the run game respectable, a schedule that’s top 30 in SOS (.575) isn’t going to help them score points.
Plus, the Spartans’ defense was even worse than the offense last year, and it’s leaning heavily on a transfer portal class that was ranked outside of the top 50.
Colby Marchio
The Spartans do avoid some of the Big Ten's best teams, but they are also entering their second coaching change in three seasons. First year head coach and former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald has a lot of work to do in East Lansing.
I do not want to be banking on hope in year one of the Fitzgerald era. I want confidence, and until I see this program take that next step, I am leaning toward the under.
📰 Michigan State media win total predictions
Jacob Cotsonika, Michigan State Spartans on SI
I’m not expecting a Cignetti-like turnaround at MSU from Pat Fitzgerald, but I do expect there to be progress. With a squad that seems relatively close, especially for a team with 62 new players, I think the Spartans should find a way to win a game or two as underdogs and get to at least five wins.
Justin Thind, SpartanTailgate (247Sports)
I have MSU going 6-6 this year, so simply winning 5+ is a confident assertion for me.
From a talent standpoint, the OL and RB rooms underwent major overhauls this offseason, giving MSU a clear-cut identity to hang its hat on: the ground game. Couple that with coaching upgrades all throughout the program as Pat Fitzgerald & his staff take over, and MSU should improve upon its 4-8 season in 2025.
At the same time, pass rush quality and interior DL depth will still have a glass ceiling on just how big of a transformation that program can make in just Fitzgerald’s first season. Still, it will certainly be a step in the right direction.
Michigan State win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Michigan State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | -145 | +120 | 4 | Under |
| 2024 | 5 | +105 | -125 | 5 | Push |
| 2023 | 5 | -135 | +115 | 4 | Under |
| 2022 | 7.5 | -140 | +115 | 5 | Under |
| 2021 | 5 | -125 | +105 | 10 | Over |
| 2019 | 8 | -140 | +120 | 6 | Under |
| 2018 | 8.5 | -150 | +130 | 7 | Under |
| 2017 | 5.5 | -160 | +140 | 9 | Over |
| 2016 | 8 | -130 | +110 | 3 | Under |
| 2015 | 9.5 | -145 | +125 | 11 | Over |
| 2014 | 9.5 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2013 | 8.5 | -190 | +150 | 11 | Over |
| 2012 | 8.5 | -120 | -110 | 6 | Under |
| 2011 | 7.5 | +100 | -130 | 10 | Over |
| 2009 | 8 | +135 | -165 | 6 | Under |
| 2008 | 7 | NA | NA | 9 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A modest Under lean overall: Across the 16 graded seasons shown, Michigan State has gone Under its win total eight times and Over seven times, with one Push – a slight edge for the Under bettors over the long haul, but an edge nonetheless.
- Back-to-back misses entering 2026: The Spartans have now gone Under (2022, 2023, 2025) or pushed (2024) in four straight graded seasons, a stretch that has driven the win total down to its lowest point in this dataset.
- A program lost under ex-coach Jonathan Smith: At 4.5 for 2026, the market has essentially reset expectations to their floor after the 1-8 Big Ten finish in 2025, leaving the door open for a bounce-back Over if the program shows any early progress.
How Michigan State win totals are priced
When you get down this low in the win total pecking order, it's a sign that sports bettors and oddsmakers are having a much more difficult time finding victories.
About the only thing working in the Spartans' favor from a scheduling standpoint is the absence of the Indiana Hoosiers. But there are still ultra-difficult games against rival Michigan, Washington, Oregon and UCLA (on the West Coast), along with a non-conference encounter with the host Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Not great.
Still, there is optimism from the sportsbooks that the Spartans can at least improve upon last year's horrid Big Ten showing, with the conference wins total set at 2.5; the Over comes in at -120, with the Under set at +100.
Michigan State's biggest win total triumph in this dataset came in 2021, when the Spartans were set at just five wins and finished 10-2 – a stunning five-game overperformance in Mel Tucker's second season.
Michigan State win total FAQs
Will Michigan State make the CFP?
Michigan State is a near-impossible long shot to reach the College Football Playoff, priced at +15000.
What is Michigan State's projected win total?
The Spartans' win total sits at 4.5 for 2026, with the Over at +130 and the Under at -156.
Who is Michigan State's starting QB?
Look for sophomore Alessio Milivojevic to secure the QB1 role entering the season; he threw for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.
What is the most notable Michigan State win total trend?
Michigan State has missed or pushed its win total in three straight seasons (Under in 2023 and 2025, a push in 2024), a stretch that has pushed the 2026 number down to its lowest mark in this dataset.
What's the best bet for Michigan State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER is the dominant option here, though with varying degrees of confidence from the analysts. And those that cover the Spartans (at least, the ones featured here) are decidedly more optimistic.
