The Vanderbilt Commodores are favored over the LSU Tigers for the first time in... well, so long that even the Covers.com database doesn’t go back far enough to find it.
At the very least, it’s been over 30 years since Vanderbilt last held the edge in the odds — and truthfully, they deserve it this weekend.
Welcome to college football in 2025, where instant eligibility for transfers is reshaping the game for the better.
In my LSU vs. Vanderbilt predictions, I’m expecting Diego Pavia to lean into the lesser-known side of his skill set.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
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LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction
LSU vs Vanderbilt best bet: Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards (-114)
Quarterbacks run often against LSU, facing designed QB runs at the seventh-highest rate in the country. However, those moments go badly for those quarterbacks, losing 0.204 expected points per designed run against the Tigers.
Don’t do it, Diego.
Diego Pavia might be best known for his rushing attempts, but the reality is Vanderbilt already emphasizes the pass, throwing the ball 6.9% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, per CFB-graphs.com, the 28th-highest rate in the country.
It is not that I expect Diego Pavia to be ineffective against LSU.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 16, 2025
It is that his best effect against LSU's defense will be from the pocket. https://t.co/j1r2f4db4I pic.twitter.com/bC06tVVeMt
And in recent weeks, that has been further emphasized. The Commodores have aired it out at least 13.1% more often than should be expected in each of their last three games, peaking thus far at 16.1% against Alabama two weeks ago.
Focusing on the air is the better way to attack LSU’s defense, as well. Against the Tigers, Vanderbilt should remove nearly all of Pavia’s designed runs from the playbook.
If Pavia simply plays well, Vandy should have a chance against most teams in the country, certainly against a flawed LSU team.
LSU vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
Pavia's boost in passing yards will largely come because he remains in the pocket in this matchup. Notably, he exceeded this rushing prop by just 1.5 yards against Alabama despite late desperation, and Pavia fell well short at South Carolina.
SEC play is limiting Pavia's rushing, but not Sedric Alexander's scoring. The running back had both rushing and receiving touchdowns against the Tide and the Gamecocks.
LSU vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards
- Diego Pavia Under 56.5 rushing yards
- Sedric Alexander anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Rounding into form
Garrett Nussmeier looks healthier now than he did at the start of the season, and it may be time to see the predicted Heisman contender.
Nussmeier has all the physical tools, and if he is indeed nearing full strength, LSU's pivot should be able to show off in this top-20 tilt.
LSU vs Vanderbilt SGP
- Diego Pavia Over 204.5 passing yards
- Diego Pavia Under 56.5 rushing yards
- Sedric Alexander anytime touchdown
- Garrett Nussmeier Over 257.5 passing yards
LSU vs Vanderbilt game predictions
LSU vs Vanderbilt moneyline prediction
The beauty of Diego Pavia is that Vanderbilt has a chance against anyone when he is in the lineup. The Commodores learned two weeks ago, though, that they can also be doomed by Pavia, his costly turnovers effectively losing the game at Alabama.
Pavia has had two weeks to stew over that. Trust him to remain more within himself in this home game.
Bet on a Vanderbilt win.
LSU vs Vanderbilt spread prediction
If trusting Pavia to stay within himself in this home game, and if betting on a Vanderbilt win, this spread is short enough to take the Commodores at -2.5.
LSU vs Vanderbilt Over/Under prediction
One might argue that three of Vanderbilt’s last five games have gone Over their totals, but that would be disingenuous in two ways.
First of all, that is also three of Vanderbilt’s six games this season. Also, both of the Commodores’ matchups with SEC foes went Under their totals rather handily, by 11 and 11.5 points.
Facing LSU, which has gone Under in all five FBS games this season, points to that latter Vanderbilt trend continuing.
LSU vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: LSU +2.5 (-110) | Vanderbilt -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: LSU +116 | Vanderbilt -136
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
LSU vs Vanderbilt trend to know
When these two met last year, Vanderbilt covered the spread, the game went Under its total, and Diego Pavia exceeded his season average in passing yards while falling short of his average in rushing yards. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Vanderbilt.
How to watch LSU vs Vanderbilt
| Location | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, October 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
LSU vs Vanderbilt latest injuries
LSU vs Vanderbilt weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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