The glory days of LSU football are long gone, but oddsmakers and the public appear to be favoring a bounce-back for the Tigers in 2026.
Fresh off a disappointing seven-win season capped by a Texas Bowl loss to Houston, LSU went out and hired coaching legend Lane Kiffin to lead them back to glory. And while he has plenty of work to do in what should be a typically relentless SEC, he's already promising a national title for the fine folks in Baton Rouge.
Here's a look at the recent history of LSU win totals, along with predictions on whether the Tigers will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
LSU 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I have upgraded the Tigers’ power rating a touchdown from last year. However, I think the expectations for new head coach Lane Kiffin and his No. 1-rated transfer portal class are unrealistic. I have bet under 9.5 wins and my ratings still like under 8.5 wins.
Rob Paul
A College Football Playoff berth isn’t likely in the cards for Lane Kiffin in Year 1 at LSU, but he won 9+ regular season games in four of his final five seasons at Ole Miss, and he’s assembled the No. 1 transfer portal class to help him do the same in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers landed a top QB in Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), whose arm talent and mobility give Kiffin plenty to work with … as does this pass-catching crop. LSU added five of the top 40 available wide receivers in the portal to pair with tight end Trey’Dez Green. And the biggest get was left tackle Jordan Seaton, a projected top 10 pick.
While the defense is also full of new faces, it’s No. 35 in returning production (60%) and returns coordinator Blake Baker and All-SEC candidates in Whit Weeks, DJ Pickett, PJ Woodland, and Dawshawn Spears. Joining them are top transfers like Ty Benefield (Boise State), Jordan Ross (Tennessee), and Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss).
Colby Marchio
First off, I have a lot of respect for the level of psycho Lane Kiffin is. He is the nation's villain, and I absolutely love it.
Secondly, if you do not have Sept. 19th circled, do you even love, cherish, and adore the sport of college football? That is when the Tigers head to Oxford to take on Kiffin's former team. That game is going to be absolutely magical.
Aside from all the drama Kiffin has created over the last year, he did a great job going out and getting Sam Leavitt, adding a bunch of weapons, and loading up the offensive line. Defensively, they should be much improved, bringing in a ton of highly ranked talent to address the issues from the Brian Kelly era.
Sports need villains, let this one cook in 2026. Over.
LSU win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(LSU historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -160 | +135 | 7 | Under |
| 2024 | 9 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Under |
| 2023 | 9.5 | -125 | +105 | 9 | Under |
| 2022 | 6.5 | -145 | +120 | 9 | Over |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -105 | -115 | 6 | Under |
| 2019 | 9 | -130 | +110 | 12 | Over |
| 2018 | 7 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2017 | 9 | -110 | -110 | 9 | Push |
| 2016 | 9.5 | -160 | +140 | 7 | Under |
| 2015 | 8.5 | -120 | +100 | 9 | Over |
| 2014 | 9 | -130 | +110 | 8 | Under |
| 2013 | 9 | +110 | -140 | 9 | Push |
| 2012 | 10 | +100 | -130 | 10 | Push |
| 2010 | 8 | +115 | -145 | 10 | Over |
| 2009 | 8.5 | -110 | -120 | 9 | Over |
| 2008 | 9 | NA | NA | 7 | Under |
| 2006 | 9.5 | +130 | -150 | 10 | Over |
| 2005 | 9.5 | +135 | -165 | 10 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- It's been a mess: This is the first time since Sports Odds History began tracking college football win totals that LSU has converted the Under in three straight seasons; in fact, the Tigers had never gone Under two years in a row prior to this stretch. And last year was the roughest of all, as LSU fell two wins short despite the Over trading at -160.
- A public fave: The O8.5 for 2026 sits at -115, extending an incredible run for the Tigers. Coming into the season, Over has been the favored play in nine of LSU's previous 11 seasons in which the market actually settles; only 2017 (-110/-110) and 2024 (+100/-120) saw that trend abate.
- Playing like kittens: The Tigers were once one of the most feared programs in college football. Lately? Not so much. LSU has gone a dismal 3-11 SU against ranked opponents over the past three seasons, with an average margin of -10.9 points in those contests.
How LSU win totals are priced
Bettors are being forced to pay the Kiffin tax on LSU's win total over – and it appears that they're fine with that.
And let's be frank here: The optimism over LSU's 2026 season extends beyond what Kiffin and his coaching staff brings to the table. LSU not only benefits from improvements on both sides of the football, but of a schedule that, while still daunting, does feature home games against three teams (Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama) you'd rather not face in their stadiums.
Despite this, fans and sportsbooks are less bullish on LSU's conference outlook, which is interesting. The O5.5 SEC victories market is set at +115, with the Under at -136.
LSU had won 5+ conference games in three straight seasons prior to 2025, and it's reasonable to expect Kiffin to immediately lead the Tigers back to respectability in conference play.
The Tigers are just 6-14-1 ATS in the past 10 seasons when playing with a rest advantage over their opponents.
LSU win total FAQs
Will LSU make the CFP?
Sportsbooks like the Tigers to make a legitimate run at a College Football Playoff berth, installing them at +160 to do just that.
What is LSU's projected win total?
The Tigers enter the 2026 college football season with a win total of 8.5; the Over is set at -115, while the Under is -105.
Who is LSU's starting QB?
Sam Leavitt is tabbed to be the Tigers' QB1, assuming he's healthy for the start of the season. The Arizona State transfer threw for 1,628 yards with 10 TDs last season.
What is the most notable LSU win total trend?
Kiffin averaged just over nine wins per season in his six-year tenure with Mississippi.
What’s the best bet for LSU this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER is the favored play, though Brad Powers isn't convinced.
