Louisville vs Pittsburgh Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Scoring Struggles in Steel City

Louisville is for real, but while their two-way play is undeniably potent, it might be Pitt's stinky offense that has the bigger impact on this weather-threatened matchup. Find out more in our college football picks for Week 7.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 13, 2023 • 12:25 ET • 4 min read

We have Atlantic Coast Conference football on a Saturday night when the Pittsburgh Panthers welcome the No. 14 Louisville Cardinals. 

The college football odds point to a Louisville victory when the two sides meet for the 20th time, and the Panthers' robust defense will have to be ready for the challenge.

Who will cover in this important ACC matchup? Please join us as we share our best free college football picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Pittsburgh on Saturday, October 14. 

Louisville vs Pittsburgh best odds

Louisville vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

This pivotal ACC contest features two very good defenses, which should be the key to this matchup.

Louisville forced five turnovers in their home defeat of Notre Dame last week and has eight forced turnovers over its last two games. The Cardinals picked off three Sam Hartman passes in their 33-20 home win over the Fighting Irish and have eight interceptions this season. 

This Cardinals group has broken up 19 passes and has recorded 14 sacks this season. They also allow just 98 rushing yards and a less robust 220 passing yards per game, ranking 18th nationally against the rush and 65th against the pass.

The Pitt offense is a mess. QB Phil Jurkovec is now playing TE, and sophomore QB Christian Veilleux is expected to start against Louisville. RB Rodney Hammond leads the rushing attack with 196 yards and three TDs with three receivers with over 100+ receiving yards working behind a banged-up O-Line with 13 sacks allowed, with four of those sacks in their latest loss to Virginia Tech. 

What Pitt lacks on the offensive end, it makes up on the defensive side of the ball. It allows a 20th-best 301 total yards per contest with the nation's 16th-best passing defense. The Panthers recorded 16 sacks with 11 passes defended, a pair of picks, and surrendered the 52nd-fewest rushing yards. 

The Panthers' defense will have their hands full on Saturday. Louisville boasts one of the best offenses in college football. The Cardinals can beat teams through the air or on the ground, and this Louisville offense will be a real test for this defense. 

RB Jawhar Jordan scampered for 143 yards with a pair of TDs last week, QB Jack Plummer has thrown for 1,551 passing yards with a dozen TDs, with six interceptions, and wideout  Jamari Thrash offers 30 catches for 519 yards with six TD receptions.

Finally, the Pitt defense should get an assist from the weather. The forecast in Pittsburgh calls for rain throughout the day and most of the evening, and it's also expected to be windy. The weather should slow down the Cardinals' offense, the Pitt offense won’t do much at all against the Louisville defense, and this game ends Under the bookmakers' number.

My best bet: Under 44.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Louisville vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay

Under 44.5 (-110)

Louisville TT Under 26.5 (-105)

Pitt TT Under 17.5 (-120)

Beyond the Under as my best bet, the other two legs are of the same theme. The weather will be horrific, and paired against a robust Pitt defense will dramatically affect the Cardinals' offense. The Panthers' offense is a mess, and the Louisville defense is legit and will hold them under 17.5 points. 

Pitt has only averaged 17.75 points per game against FBS-level opponents this season, none ranked as high as Louisville (26th).

If weather forces both of these teams to run the ball more, we'll see the clock get bled by both sides, further driving down the scoring. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Louisville vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis

The Under 44.5 is my favorite play on the board, but here are some additional notes for Saturday night's ACC matchup.

  • Louisville has an impressive overall 1Q score of 48-0 this season, the longest scoreless streak since their 1973 season. 

  • The Cardinals scored 13 points from five Notre Dame turnovers and have forced three or more turnovers in a game thrice this season.

  • Louisville has an ACC road mark of 15-23. Their away victory over NC State was their first road win since October 2022.

  • Pittsburgh Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has recorded a victory over a Top-25 team in each of the last seven seasons. The Panthers are 0-1 vs. the Top 25 thus far this season and failed to cover +7 as home underdog against No. 17 North Carolina.

  • Pitt freshman Kenny Johnson averages 35.5 yards per kick-off return. That leaves him third in the country, facing a Louisville special teams unit allowing the 92nd-most yards per return.

  • Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Louisville vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in Cardinals’ last five games following an ATS win. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Pittsburgh.

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Louisville vs Pittsburgh game info

Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Date: Saturday, October 14, 2023
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CW Network

Louisville vs Pittsburgh latest injuries

Louisville vs Pittsburgh weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

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